This Is Attribution

Google’s announcement about the removal of third-party cookies sent shockwaves thru both the advertising world and Wall Street.  Is this an Attribution Apocalypse or a necessary cleanse to the advertising ecosystem? The changes and potential impact was the topic of an industry conference call held with Shyam Patil, Internet Analyst, at Susquehanna Securities and C3 Metrics Co-Founder and Chief Attribution Officer, Jeff Greenfield.

Today we welcome Jane Clarke whose knowledge, experience and initiatives continue to push the attribution and measurement market forward. Tune in for an in-depth discussion on the future of standards in attribution and measurement as well as some good tips on choosing a vendor! Guest bio: Jane Clarke has more than 40 years of experience collecting and analyzing global strategic insights for Time Warner, Children’s Television Workshop, and National Geographic. As a CEO and Managing Director of CIMM, the Coalition for Innovative Media Measurement, Jane is responsible for developing CIM strategy, vision, and overseeing all day-to-day operations. Most recently, she was Vice-President of Insights and Innovation at Time Warner Media Group where her work fuelled marketing solutions across television, online, mobile and print. She is on the board of the Advertising Research Foundation and Icon Global, was a broadcasting and cable digital all-star in 2014, and received a leadership award from Interactive TV Today in 2016. Key takeaways: [1:30] I introduce today’s guest, Jane Clarke, and ask her how her journey took her from an internship at National Geographic to Sesame Street to advertising and CIMM, where she is today. She touches on what the Coalition for Innovative Media Measurement (CIMM) is and its purpose. [7:12] Cross-platform analysis evolution has been long and slow, Jane explains how it started for her all the way back at National Geographic and how the advent of digital technology revolutionized expectations and enabled the progressive de-siloing of the analytic process. [10:56] Jane dives into the multitude of different data levels that enable an unprecedented level of analysis granularity as well as how each media offers a unique type of information. She expands on CIMM’s mission in this evolving concept as well as the different systems that will be required in the future. [16:20] Jane explains why she says that the data systems currently in place will need to change, starting with the massive differences in who owns the data as well as privacy issues. [21:22] The lack of standardization is currently an issue; Jane details some of the more promising initiatives underway today. [25:23] Some tools are in place to protect brands against fraud but standards will increase trust and incentivize brands to jump into attribution. CIMM is looking at creating some best practices to start things off. [29:10] Data that is used for measurement is sensitive business data, yet a lot of it is available easily, Jane and I discuss the necessity to tighten up security in an environment whose pace is increasing so rapidly! [31:10] Jane shares her tips and advice for advertisers to find and choose a trustworthy vendor. [34:52] I mention control groups and their importance for measuring incrementality. Jane and I go back and forth with some eye-opening moments clients have when they realize most of their sales would have happened anyway — even when siloed attribution was taking credit for everyone walking into the stores! [40:35] The word attribution like the word organic should be used with certification or people falsely using it should be fined! [42:23] Jane offers her vision on the future of attribution. [44:06] Jane shares one thing she knows that no one else knows and I thank her for coming on the podcast to share so much of her experience. Be sure to tune in for the next episode and thanks for listening! Connect with our guest: Jane Clarke on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/jane-clarke-8862541] Jane Clarke at CIMM [https://cimm-us.org/aboutus/organization/] About your host: Jeff Greenfield is the Co-Founder and Chief Attribution Officer of C3 Metrics. As the chief architect of the platform, Greenfield worked directly with the former CEO and Chairmen of Nielsen to solve advertising’s attribution problem. Greenfield’s history of technology and marketing initiatives has served blue-chip clients including GlaxoSmithKline, Kimberly-Clark, Sony BMG, Black & Decker, Forest Labs, Plum Creek, and more. Prior to co-founding C3 Metrics, Greenfield was a recognized thought leader in the area of Branded Content as the publisher of Branded Entertainment Monthly, a joint effort with VNU Media, detailing industry statistics, gaps, and trends. He’s been a featured speaker at NAPTE, The Next Big Idea, and a news source in The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNET, and Investor’s Business Daily. Greenfield studied Biochemistry at the University of Maryland, holds dual degrees from Southern California University of Health Sciences and is an instrument-rated pilot. Jeff Greenfield at C3 metrics [https://c3metrics.com/leadership/] Jeff Greenfield on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeffgreenfield] Jeff Greenfield on Twitter [https://twitter.com/jeffgreenfield?lang=en]

Izzet Agoren knows:  Accurate attribution models cannot be built by data scientists alone…you need a team who understands how media operates in the real world.  An electrical engineer who launched his own ISP in 2002 in Cypress,  Izzet search for the signal in the noise led him to AdTech.  As the VP of Data Science for Rauxa, hear how he’s overcome the barriers to better measurement. Guest bio: Izzet is a technically trained engineer who found his way to ad tech and data science. His vast contributions include the VAST 4.0 and VAST 4.1 standards with the IAB Tech Lab, he has served on the Mobile Marketing Associations Messaging and Programmatic Committees, IoT Council; and the Internet Advertising Bureau's Programmatic and Data councils. While at Penn State, he co-authored multiple, peer-reviewed publications in the area of real-time video communications for 4G wireless communications and his work at Motorola lead to focused development of efficiencies in IEFT standards that defined VOIP on packet networks for mobile carriers. He founded Extended Broadband in 2002, a regional fixed wireless internet service provider that spanned four countries — all of which had strained diplomatic and political circumstances. In 2007 Izzet joined a team that won four media awards for a Semantic targeting technology in marketing technologies. Izzet’s further engagements with Integral Ad Science and TRUSTe exposed his technical background to the enabling capabilities that verification and privacy provide the digital marketing and advertising landscape. He is currently serving as the VP of Data Intelligence at Rauxa, where he leads Artificial Intelligence and machine learning product development. He is an elected Senior Member of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, holds a Master’s degree in Electrical Engineering, and is a Fulbright Scholar. Key takeaways: [2:00] I introduce today’s guest, Izzet Agoren, and ask him about how he came to be where he is today. [5:24] Izzet remembers when he launched his own ISP in Cypress in 2002, climbing on roofs and boosting microwave signals with antennas and amplifiers. [9:12] Moving into his position at Rauxa, Izzet was tasked with elevating the function of the department from being descriptive to prescriptive with data. [12:17] Izzet and I unpack the concept of viewability and the issues surrounding it — a lot of ads aren’t seen but models don’t take it into account — most of the models are made by data scientists who have zero media experience and the model outputs don’t make sense. [15:53] Izzet shares his steps to making a business, a department, or a team more proactive: it always begins as a philosophical concept.  He also touches on the two ways data & better measurement can be proactivity presented to a client: (i) as a media product or (ii) as a data product. [18:56] In some cases, clients know that they’re missing out by not using attribution. They are unable to pursue this ROI either because they’re not ready or because there’s a perception that it’s either too complex or too expensive to deploy or that there will be political barriers. [20:02] Measurement is ‘table stakes’ to buying media. Izzet has been kicked out of meetings for saying so. [21:37] Izzet hopes that embracing attribution won’t take a new generation of people as the alternative is that the walled gardens will take it on. In the end, this acceptance movement should begin with more marketers bringing this function in-house. [26:56] In terms of the future, Izzet believes that attribution should get progressively easier as offline behaviors and channels become digitized. Data points will become deterministic and make the analysis more accurate, near real-time. [29:52] Is having complete data possible? [32:04] Izzet shares one thing he knows that no one else does — he doesn’t profess to know any more than anyone, but he does share a recent discovery of his. I thank him for coming on the podcast and sharing so much of his experience. Be sure to tune in for the next episode and thanks for listening! Connect with our guest: Izzet Agoren on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/izzetagoren/] Izzet Agoren on Twitter [https://twitter.com/izzetagoren?lang=en] Mentioned in this episode: Book: Causality: Models, Reasoning and Inference [https://www.amazon.com/Causality-Reasoning-Inference-Judea-Pearl/dp/052189560X], by Judea Pearl PegasusCRM [https://pegasuscrm.net/] The Shapley Value [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shapley_value] Markov Models [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Markov_model] The Apache Foundation [https://www.apache.org/] Apache Atlas [https://atlas.apache.org/] Apache Delta (now retired) [https://deltacloud.apache.org/] About your host: Jeff Greenfield is the Co-Founder and Chief Attribution Officer of C3 Metrics. As the chief architect of the platform, Greenfield worked directly with the former CEO and Chairmen of Nielsen to solve advertising’s Attribution problem. Greenfield’s history of technology and marketing initiatives have served blue-chip clients including GlaxoSmithKline, Kimberly-Clark, Sony BMG, Black & Decker, Forest Labs, Plum Creek, and more. Prior to co-founding C3 Metrics, Greenfield was a recognized thought leader in the area of Branded Content as publisher of Branded Entertainment Monthly, a joint effort with VNU Media, detailing industry statistics, gaps, and trends. He’s been a featured speaker at NAPTE, The Next Big Idea, and a news source in The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNET, and Investor’s Business Daily. Greenfield studied Biochemistry at the University of Maryland, holds dual degrees from Southern California University of Health Sciences and is an instrument-rated pilot. Jeff Greenfield at C3 metrics [https://c3metrics.com/leadership/] Jeff Greenfield on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeffgreenfield] Jeff Greenfield on Twitter [https://twitter.com/jeffgreenfield?lang=en] Tweetables (edited): “We find signals from noise, conversions from non-conversions and clicks from those that didn’t click. We are always looking for that signal to noise ratio and always looking for that return on investment.” — Izzet Agoren “The demand was so fierce that I got threats from some of my customers!” — Izzet Agoren “All models are wrong, some are useful.” — Izzet Agoren “You don’t have to have your entire data stack and your entire data warehouse in order to perform the correct measurement of your media investments. It’s not as complex as people think.” — Izzet Agoren “You just have to have the will to do data measurement, but it pays for itself many times over.” — Izzet Agoren

When Alice Sylvester exited the agency side of advertising, she witnessed both the emergence of market research and the explosion of digital advertising. Now as marketers embrace multi-touch attribution for media, will we see a day where brand and media metrics meet in the middle? Hear her thoughts on privacy changes leading to an attribution apocalypse – and what’s next. Guest bio: Alice Sylvester has held a variety of research and planning positions at major advertising agencies including DraftFCB, Young & Rubicam, Leo Burnett, and J. Walter Thompson. She was Chairman of the Board for the Advertising Research Foundation, a member of the Editorial Review Board of the Journal of Advertising Research, and was recently inducted into the Marketing Research Council Hall of Fame. She has chaired the David Ogilvy Awards for Research Excellence, as well as The Emotional Response to Advertising Initiative. Alice is a co-author of Advertising in the Mind of the Consumer. She’s currently a partner at Sequent Partners where she is involved in industry ROI initiatives, new media metrics development, and cross media measurement. She is also the content producer for Attribution Accelerator held in October in New York City. Key takeaways: [2:00] I introduce today’s guest, Alice Sylvester, and ask her about how she came to be where she is today. [6:36] I mention the dual roles of advertising — brand preference and sales impact, both of which can negatively affect each other — and ask Alice if she sees any way or any value in resolving this divide. [8:41] I mention a chat I had with a Capital One exec who has been doing brand lift studies and hopes to one day be able to pinpoint the KPIs responsible for brand love. Alice details why she thinks that we don’t have the data to answer these questions today. [12:52] Alice outlines where she sees multi-touch applications fitting into the current landscape of customer journeys as well as the promises it makes. [15:04] Has the industry gone too far with regards to attribution and privacy? Alice touches on privacy issues and coming regulations and what she calls the attribution apocalypse. [16:15] Some unfulfilled promises of attribution. [18:24] I’ve noticed that clients who don’t or won’t do attribution often have a lack of trust in where the data comes from and how it’s attributed. Alice and I discuss the possibility of breaking out of the confines of confidentiality and standardizing the process, or parts of it. [24:05] Alice offers that even if we understand the limitations of the datasets, attribution is something people should definitely jump into. Don’t wait for perfection! [26:02] In the past 10 years, even if it may seem that marketers have had reduced choices in terms of ad placement, Alice finds that digital out-of-home has offered a wealth of possibilities that were none existed before, however, there may less experimentation — everybody in the industry is stressed and overworked. [27:44] A.I. as a tool to alleviate oversight and optimization workloads — and a scary prospect for Alice as a creative person. [29:31] Is the agency of the future just a janitor, turning the lights on and making sure the machine works? [30:54] On the worth of continued measurements, Alice offers the example of a 12-year-old: you don’t know how they feel about your brand, but in four years they may be making purchases. The customer base always replenishes itself and changes. [33:45] Are we moving more towards a short term marketing environment? Alice offers that we’ve been in one for 20 years and touches on why and how attribution can help. [36:48] How much of a marketing budget should be devoted to metrics? Alice has an interesting answer. [38:40] Alice offers up some parting advice: get ready to face privacy restrictions on a mass scale and how it’s going to change the data landscape. I thank Alice for coming on the podcast and sharing so much of her experience. Be sure to tune in for the next episode and thanks for listening! Connect with our guest: Alice K. Sylvester at Sequent Partners [https://sequentpartners.com/company/our-team/] Alice K. Sylvester on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/alice-k-sylvester-0090b57] Mentioned in this episode: C3 Metrics [https://c3metrics.com/] About your host: Jeff Greenfield is the Co-Founder and Chief Attribution Officer of C3 Metrics. As the chief architect of the platform, Greenfield worked directly with the former CEO and Chairmen of Nielsen to solve advertising’s Attribution problem. Greenfield’s history of technology and marketing initiatives have served blue-chip clients including GlaxoSmithKline, Kimberly-Clark, Sony BMG, Black & Decker, Forest Labs, Plum Creek, and more. Prior to co-founding C3 Metrics, Greenfield was a recognized thought leader in the area of Branded Content as publisher of Branded Entertainment Monthly, a joint effort with VNU Media, detailing industry statistics, gaps, and trends. He’s been a featured speaker at NAPTE, The Next Big Idea, and a news source in: The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNET, and Investor’s Business Daily. Greenfield studied Biochemistry at the University of Maryland, holds dual degrees from Southern California University of Health Sciences and is an instrument rated pilot. Jeff Greenfield at C3 metrics [https://c3metrics.com/leadership/] Jeff Greenfield on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeffgreenfield] Jeff Greenfield on Twitter [https://twitter.com/jeffgreenfield?lang=en] Quotes (edited): “Media test was a very, very hard measure of performance: you either moved stuff off the shelf, or you didn’t.” — Alice K. Sylvester “There are no people in media, it’s just big numbers. Account planning is the opposite.” — Alice K. Sylvester “Originally everything was market-mix modeling.” — Alice K. Sylvester “We are not at the stage where we can measure brand growth through analytic review of KPIs and behavioral responses.” — Alice K. Sylvester “We’re still in adolescence on all this stuff, but it will get better.” — Alice K. Sylvester “You have to separate the ideal and the promise of attribution from today’s practice because we know that there are some enormous holes in the journey, with the walled gardens of Amazon and social.” —  Alice K. Sylvester “Everybody in the advertising industry is stressed and overworked.” — Alice K. Sylvester “I hear people say long-term is one or two years and that’s crazy! Long-term on a brand build is 10 years, 20 years, 50 years.” — Alice K. Sylvester

When Jim Spaeth co-founded Sequent Partners, he had no idea how much the business of measurement would change. After serving as President of the ARF and decade developing new research tools he could not dream of doing anything else. Hear how (and why) he’s embracing industry change. Guest bio: Jim Spaeth, is co-founder of Sequent Partners, the foremost thought leadership consultancy for brand and media measurement, and ROI.  Prior to co-founding Sequent Partners, Jim served for seven years as president of the Advertising Research Foundation. Under Jim’s leadership, the ARF expanded its scope to incorporate all aspects of market research practice on a global basis, including marketing and media, ROI, CRM, brand valuation, digital marketing, and the transformation of the research function to a discipline focused on the value creation. Prior to his leadership role at the ARF, Jim spent over a decade developing new research tools to improve client’s business performance, and led media research and planning functions at General Foods, and Young & Rubicam, an inductee into the Market Research Council Hall of Fame in 2016, he was honored by the Advertising Research Foundation in 2017, when he received the Erwin Ephron Demystification Award. He is the co-author of Market Research Matters and numerous articles, as well as a frequent conference speaker. Jim’s a true student of measurement and that’s why I’m excited he’s here with us today. Key takeaways: [2:00] I introduce today’s guest, Jim Spaeth, and asks him about how he came to be where he is today. [7:06] Jim touches on why attribution came to surpass marketing mixed modeling and how it has evolved into the ability to read today and make a change tomorrow. This quick turnaround time and this agility are responsible for attribution’s current spike in popularity — and some of the mistakes and omissions newcomers tend to do! [11:17] I highlight a point made by Jim that attribution is an offshoot of media mix and marketers need to be involved, not just data scientists who don’t have any knowledge of the previous 30-40 years of marketing data analysis. [12:50] Jim shares an example of how he approaches building a mental model for their business with a client and which KPI he helps them pick out and why. Understanding how your business operates is the starting point to any kind of marketing strategy — including attribution. [16:48] Ignoring history will lead to avoidable mistakes, I point out the Netflix problem: “too much is like not enough.” [18:25] Jim uses an example to underscore one of the big issues with data gaps on the publisher side: the missing variable bias. [24:34] Marketers used to be idea people, they would spend time building their customer avatar and fleshing out strategies, but there has been a shift towards the data-driven marketer, which is much more akin to finance. I ask Jim why there is no love for attribution in finance? [26:31] Jim and I discuss the ideal organizational place of attribution. [28:09] Is Insights a wizard? [29:02] Jim and I dive into what we see as the future of attribution, despite the missing variable bias and a few caveats. [37:09] Before closing out, Jim makes a special mention of the value of creative. [39:07] I thank Jim for coming on the podcast and sharing so much of his experience. Be sure to tune in for next episode and thanks for listening! Connect with our guest: Jim Spaeth at Sequent Partners [https://sequentpartners.com/company/our-team/] Jim Spaeth on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/jim-spaeth-5080501] Mentioned in this episode: C3 Metrics [https://c3metrics.com/] Sequent Partners [https://sequentpartners.com/company/our-team/] Advertising Research Foundation [https://thearf.org/] Book: Market Research Matters: Tools and Techniques for Aligning Your Business [https://www.amazon.com/Market-Research-Matters-Techniques-Aligning/dp/0471360058], by Jim Spaeth About your host: Jeff Greenfield is the Co-Founder and Chief Attribution Officer of C3 Metrics. As the chief architect of the platform, Greenfield worked directly with the former CEO and Chairmen of Nielsen to solve advertising’s Attribution problem. Greenfield’s history of technology and marketing initiatives have served blue-chip clients including GlaxoSmithKline, Kimberly-Clark, Sony BMG, Black & Decker, Forest Labs, Plum Creek, and more. Prior to co-founding C3 Metrics, Greenfield was a recognized thought leader in the area of Branded Content as publisher of Branded Entertainment Monthly, a joint effort with VNU Media, detailing industry statistics, gaps, and trends. He’s been a featured speaker at NAPTE, The Next Big Idea, and a news source in: The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNET, and Investor’s Business Daily. Greenfield studied Biochemistry at the University of Maryland, holds dual degrees from Southern California University of Health Sciences and is an instrument rated pilot. Jeff Greenfield at C3 metrics [https://c3metrics.com/leadership/] Jeff Greenfield on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeffgreenfield] Jeff Greenfield on Twitter [https://twitter.com/jeffgreenfield?lang=en] Quotes (edited): “Facebook has attribution, Amazon has attribution, marketers feel like they have to have it but they don’t really understand it!” — Jeff Greenfield “Attribution is the manifestation of a dream we’ve had for a long time.” — Jim Spaeth “Garbage in, garbage out; bad data is going to end up with bad results.” — Jeff Greenfield “When somebody just approaches this with a lot of data and they throw machine learning at it, or any analytic technique thoughtlessly, God knows what you’ll come up with!” — Jim Spaeth “It’s science, and it starts with a hypothesis and then you bring in the data and you prove it or disprove it and in an iterative process you refine it until you have a model that’s validated in its ability to predict.” — Jim Spaeth “The biggest issue is that there is no transparency into the data, or into the methods, there is a need for an industry laboratory.” — Jim Spaeth “Attribution is measuring in-market performance for specific creative executions.” — Jim Spaeth