S2EP70 | 24,000 Broke. Volatility Is Rising. The Half-Year's Biggest Expiry Won't Pin Like They Think | 30th June Thursday

S2EP71 | 4,000 Became Resistance. IT Hit a 3-Year Low. But Most Stocks Closed Green. | 1st July Wed

The biggest expiry of the half-year was supposed to lock the market onto 24,000. It didn't. The index touched it, lost it, and drifted down to settle at 23,865 — while underneath the headline, more stocks rose than fell. Day 1 of the July series opens caught between a broken-down 24,000 — now resistance — and a 23,800 support that held, with the damage concentrated in one wounded sector: IT, now at a 3-year low. And it opens on a gap-up: GIFT Nifty is pointing straight back to 24,000 after US technology rallied overnight, so the day's first question is whether we reclaim the very level that just broke. In this episode: - Why the index closed red while the mid and small caps closed green - The one sector that dragged a cap-weighted index lower on a positive-breadth day - Foreign desks selling, domestic desks buying — the bid holding this market up - The 23,800 to 24,000 box, and what a clean close on either side opens - The gap-up test of 24,000 — why a US-tech-led reclaim would flip the whole character - Why US jobs data on Thursday is the real catalyst this week - The idea that saves you from panicking at a red screen: the index is a weighted average, not a headcount of the market Today's plan: trade the range with an upside tilt — buy dips toward 23,800, watch for a reclaim of 24,000 that squeezes the shorts, and keep a little cheap protection into Thursday's Sensex expiry and US jobs data. Chapters: 00:00 The expiry that didn't settle on its number 00:35 Global tape and the morning setup 01:30 Who's buying, who's selling 03:00 Red index, green market — the IT story 04:15 The 23,800 to 24,000 box 05:15 Why the index number isn't the market 06:30 The plan, and Thursday's test Data: NSE and BSE official closing figures. Educational content only — not investment advice. Stream every episode free on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com], or listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, and YouTube. ================ HASHTAGS ================ #TheTanmayEdge #Nifty #Sensex #StockMarketIndia #Trading #FIIDII #NiftyIT #JulySeries #RupeeCase #MarketBreadth ================ LINKS ================ Listen free: https://rupeecase.com [https://rupeecase.com] Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Amazon Music | YouTube RupeeCase — India's systematic investing terminal: https://rupeecase.com [https://rupeecase.com]

S2EP70 | 24,000 Broke. Volatility Is Rising. The Half-Year's Biggest Expiry Won't Pin Like They Think | 30th June Thursday

Last episode the pros bought volatility at the lows. One session later, the trap sprang — Nifty lost 24,000, closing 23,946, and India VIX ROSE to 13.56 on a down day. Today is the heaviest settlement on the calendar: the Nifty weekly, the Nifty and Bank Nifty monthly, the June quarterly, and the half-yearly long-dated and LEAPS series all expire on one close. Tanmay breaks down why a RISING fear gauge into a max-settlement expiry flips the entire expiry-day playbook — why the max-pain magnet at 24,000 loses its grip, where the real support now sits, and how the smart money just repositioned. In this episode: - Why Monday's breakdown was broader than the headline (2,036 stocks down vs 1,330 up) — and India fell while the world rallied - The defensive rotation: autos and banks out (Bank Nifty lost 58,000), pharma and power in - The positioning shift: after 24,000 broke, the pros CUT their upside calls and kept their puts; foreign money pressed shorts and bought puts; the crowd is short 7,46,908 puts - The levels: 24,000 flips to resistance and max pain, 23,800 is the new support, the straddle prices only ~160 - The education: a rising VIX into a monthly/quarterly/LEAPS expiry detaches price from max pain — falling vol, trust the pin; rising vol, respect the trend - The plan: buy the dip at 23,800, own cheap optionality, don't sell the straddle into a rising fear gauge Data: NSE, BSE, NSDL official. Not investment advice. Stream free on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com]. Also on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, YouTube. HASHTAGS: #TheTanmayEdge #Nifty #BankNifty #Expiry #OptionChain #IndiaVIX #Volatility #FIIDII #ProVsClient #RupeeCase #StockMarketIndia #Trading LINKS: Listen / stream free: https://rupeecase.com [https://rupeecase.com] RupeeCase — India's systematic investing terminal: https://rupeecase.com [https://rupeecase.com] X: https://x.com/TanmayKurtkoti [https://x.com/TanmayKurtkoti]

S2EP69 | 24,000 Support, 24,200 Resistance. The Pros Just Bought Volatility. Monthly Expiry Tomorrow | 29th June Monday

Thursday closed green — and gave back 205 points from its high. The rally hit resistance and got sold back to flat. Then three days shut for Muharram. Today we come back into the eve of the monthly expiry, coiled inside a 200-point range — and the pros just went and bought volatility. In this episode: the upper-wick fade nobody on your feed flagged; the options book by participant — the Pro desk now long both calls AND puts (long volatility) while the crowd sells puts into a VIX low; and the official 30-June chain — 24,000 support that held all day, fresh 24,200 resistance, a 24,100 pin, India VIX at 13, a ~225 straddle and a 1SD of about 275 points. The lesson: read the chain for volatility, not just direction — and when vol is cheap and the pros are buying it, you own the move, you don't sell it. POV: buy the dips. Levels, positioning, and the plan into Tuesday's monthly expiry — all off NSE, BSE and NSDL data. No noise. Free every trading morning at 8:30 IST on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com] — built on RupeeCase, India's first systematic investing terminal. This is The Tanmay Edge. You just got earlier. ---------------------------------------------------------------- SHOW NOTES / CHAPTERS: 00:00 Green is a costume — Thursday's rejected high 01:15 The fade: split tape, autos up, IT/metals down 02:30 Flows: DII carrying, FII lightening the short 03:45 The options book — Pro long both wings, crowd short puts 05:30 Levels + volatility — 24,000 / 24,100 / 24,200, VIX 13, straddle 225, 1SD ±275 07:00 Education: read the chain for volatility, not just direction 08:15 Macro: 5th down day on Wall St, crude ~$70, flat GIFT 08:55 The plan — buy the dips, own the optionality ---------------------------------------------------------------- KEYWORDS/TAGS: Nifty, Sensex, monthly expiry, options, max pain, call wall, put floor, FII DII, open interest, India VIX, BankNifty, 24000, 24200, Tanmay Edge SOURCES (public, on-air): NSE, BSE, NSDL/SEBI/RBI only. "India's first systematic investing terminal." DISTRIBUTION: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com] (homepage free), Telegram, @TanmayKurtkoti on X / LinkedIn / Instagram.

S2EP68 | 24000 Cracked, Reclaimed, Re-Floored. Now Sensex Expiry | 25th June Thursday

Tuesday the floor cracked. Wednesday Nifty reclaimed 24,000 (24,021.65, +0.83%) and Sensex 76,991.22 (+1.04%) — but on a DII rescue while FIIs sold cash and deepened their futures short. The tell that changed the read: the 30-June Nifty put-call ratio flipped 0.78 to 1.21, with 24,000 now the biggest put wall and put-writers rebuilding the floor they lost. Today is Sensex weekly expiry, gapping up into the 77,000 wall on a zero-day, with US Core PCE waiting tonight. Levels, positioning, gamma and the plan. SOURCE LINE: NSE, BSE, NSDL.

S2EP67 | 24000 Cracked On Expiry. The Floor Is Now The Ceiling | 24th June Wednesday

For three weeks, 24,000 was the floor. On expiry day it cracked. The Nifty held till 11:30, then let go straight through 24,000 and closed at the low — 23,824.10, down 278.80 (−1.16%), seven stocks up and forty-three down. The level you were buying is now the level you have to sell into. Today's read, all the numbers in one place: • Tue close: Nifty 23,824.10 (−278.80, −1.16%), range 23,784.95–24,135.50. Sensex 76,200.68 (−893.39, −1.16%). IT and metals led the fall — Infosys −3.36%, TCS −3.16%, Tata Steel −2.66%. Only four Nifty names green. • The why: global, not domestic. Korea fell ~10% Monday (circuit-breaker, chip rout), US Nasdaq −2% overnight, an everything-selloff with gold and crypto down too. • Flows: FII cash net FLAT (+₹18 Cr) on a 279-point down day; DII bought ₹680 Cr. The fall came through index futures and global beta, not cash selling. • Positioning (Pro → FII → Client): Pros flipped net short (−2,131). FII went deeper short — ~2.29 lakh contracts (added ~5,800), all three legs bearish. Client bought the dip — net long ~1.63 lakh, the crowd catching the knife. • The flip (30-Jun chain): 24,000 — the old floor — is now the biggest call wall of the month (~13.6M). Real support below is 23,500 (8.5M puts). PCR 0.78, call-heavy. • Max pain: 24,000 — the chain's magnet is still the broken floor. The whole week is a fight at that one number. • Premarket: GIFT Nifty 23,864 (+53), soft higher open. US tech −2% overnight, no help. Brent 76.41, crude a cushion. Gold under 4,100. USD/INR 94.73. India VIX 14. The plan: no expiry today, so no pin — it's an auction, a follow-through day. Sell the rallies, respect the broken level. Resistance 23,900 then 24,000; sell into it or let it prove itself. Support 23,800, 23,700, then the real floor 23,500. Only a clean reclaim and hold of 24,000 says the foreign shorts are covering. The education today: support becomes resistance. When a floor that held for weeks breaks, it flips into a ceiling — because the longs who bought it are now trapped underwater and sell into any bounce back to break-even. Their relief is your resistance. EP66 graded 3/8 — the pin thesis broke when 24,000 cracked, though the break-calls landed. Full scorecard at rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com]. Trade the level, not the opinion. Free and first on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com], Apple Podcasts and Spotify — every trading morning at 8:30 AM IST. Data: NSE, BSE, NSDL.