From Hormuz to Washington DC: Recalibrating the 2026 Rate Outlook

Correlations Can Give Great Market Insights, But Beware

Trading Global Macro Podcast – Ep. 24 In this episode of the StoneX Trading Global Macro Podcast, John Kicklighter and Matt Weller discuss how traders can use correlation across forex, equities, commodities, interest rates and crypto without mistaking the alignment for causation. They cover how correlations can support hedging, confirm breakouts, identify systemic influences like ‘risk-on/risk-off’ conditions and reveal shifting macro narratives. The discussion also examines why relationships such as stocks and bonds, dollar-yen and Japanese yields, Bitcoin and gold, or Bitcoin and the S&P 500 can change over time. They discuss among other correlations: 🔷 The relationship between stocks and bonds for the traditional portfolio 🔷 Attempts at undermining USD/JPY’s relationship to yield differentials 🔷 Leveraging different correlations against the Dollar to assess core macro trends 🔷 How Bitcoin was billed as a market participant and what correlations actually reveal Be sure to like, subscribe, and follow for weekly insights into the global forces driving FX, equities, commodities, interest rates, and more.

Wall Street vs Main Street: Record Highs in Stocks vs Record Low Consumer Sentiment

Trading Global Macro Podcast – Ep. 23 In this episode of the Trading Global Macro Podcast, John Kicklighter and Matt Weller examine the growing divergence between Wall Street and Main Street. With the S&P 500 hitting record highs while consumer sentiment falls to historic lows, they break down the drivers behind this disconnect, including corporate profitability, pricing power, and consumer pressures. The discussion explores whether this gap is sustainable, what factors could force convergence, and how traders and investors should interpret conflicting signals in today’s macro environment. Other general topics include: 🔷 S&P 500 at record highs vs. University of Michigan consumer sentiment at record lows 🔷 Why corporate earnings remain strong despite macro uncertainty 🔷 How companies are passing costs (tariffs, fuel) onto consumers 🔷 The role of AI in boosting efficiency while increasing consumer anxiety 🔷 Limitations and distortions in consumer sentiment surveys 🔷 Why Wall Street and Main Street must eventually converge Be sure to like, subscribe, and follow for weekly insights into the global forces driving FX, equities, commodities, interest rates, and more.

What to Expect From the Fed in 2026 Amid The Warsh Transition

Trading Global Macro Podcast – Ep. 22 In this episode of the Trading Global Macro Podcast from StoneX, Matt Weller and John Kicklighter are joined by Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX, for a deep dive into the evolving Federal Reserve backdrop. The conversation explores the likely transition from Jerome Powell, the implications of a more politically charged Fed, and whether markets are underestimating the risks tied to weakening institutional credibility. Vincent also examines why inflation may remain structurally above the Fed’s stated 2% target, how shifting inflation measures can shape policy narratives, and why a divided central bank could create more uncertainty across rates, equities, and broader risk assets. The discussion also touches on the Fed’s balance sheet, the tension between optics and economic reality, and why “higher for longer” may still be the default path into 2026. In this episode: 🔷 The likely transition from Jerome Powell to Kevin Warsh and what it could mean for Fed policy 🔷 Whether political pressure on the Fed is changing the institution 🔷 Why inflation may remain closer to 3–4% in practice 🔷 The debate around the Fed’s balance sheet and market distortion 🔷 What a less credible or more divided Fed could mean for equities and rates 🔷 Vincent’s view on where policy may be headed by the end of 2026 Be sure to like, subscribe, and follow for weekly insights into the global forces driving FX, equities, commodities, interest rates, and more.

From Hormuz to Washington DC: Recalibrating the 2026 Rate Outlook

Trading Global Macro Podcast – Ep. 21 In this episode of the Trading Global Macro Podcast from StoneX, Matt Weller and John Kicklighter examine how the escalating US-Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are reshaping the global macro outlook for 2026. The conversation focuses on one of the biggest questions facing markets right now: are central banks done cutting rates, and could some be forced to turn more hawkish again? Matt and John break down the inflation implications of rising energy prices, the risk of broader supply-chain pass-through effects, and why policymakers may be increasingly concerned about keeping inflation expectations anchored. They also explore: 🔷Why oil and fertilizer disruptions matter for inflation 🔷How the Bank of England, ECB, Fed, RBA, and BOJ compare on the hawk-dove spectrum 🔷Why markets have shifted from pricing rate cuts to considering possible hikes 🔷The growing tension between inflation risks and slowing economic activity 🔷What this means for FX, fixed income, equities, and broader risk sentiment Be sure to like, subscribe, and follow for weekly insights into the global forces driving FX, equities, commodities, interest rates, and more.

The “TACO Trade”: How Markets Are Shaping Tariffs, Iran Policy and Financial Stability

Trading Global Macro Podcast – Ep. 20 In this episode of the Trading Global Macro Podcast from StoneX, John Kicklighter and Matt Weller examine the so-called “TACO trade” associated to US President Donald Trump, which describes the idea that controversial policies are reversed when markets push back. While the acronym may be associated to the controversial US President, it may not be all that unusual historically nor that necessarily detrimental. They discuss historical corollaries in: 🔷 The UK mini budget crisis that ousted a Prime Minister 🔷 A reversal of support for Lehman Brothers during the Great Financial Crisis 🔷 ECB President Mario Draghi's 'whatever it takes' commitment to EURUSD below 1.40 🔷 The Swiss National Bank's abandonment of a core policy of a 1.20 floor on EURCHF 🔷 The open-ended influence of the so-called 'Fed Put' Be sure to like, subscribe, and follow for weekly insights into the global forces driving FX, equities, commodities, interest rates, and more.