Do Your Politics Affect How You Bet?

Transgender Sports Bans

The UBK Gang discusses state legislative limits on sports participation by transgender athletes and the Kalshi market for the upcoming Supreme Court decisions in West Virginia v. BPJ and Little v. Hecox, in which the Court will decide whether transgender sports bans violate the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment and Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

An Early Look at the 2028 Republican Primary

The UBK Gang takes a look at early trading in the market for the 2028 Republican primary, with close looks at the potential candidacies of Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, populist media pundit Tucker Carlson, and yes, President Donald J. Trump.

An Early Look at the 2028 Democratic Presidential Primary -- Part 2

In the second part of this two-part series exploring the market for the 2028 Democratic presidential primary , the UBK gang assesses the chances of the leading contenders, with a particularly close look at the markets for the 2024 nominee Kamala Harris, AOC, and the group's value play, Pete Buttigieg.

An Early Look at the 2028 Democratic Presidential Primary -- Part 1

The UBK Gang take a first look at the 2028 Democratic primary, and explores the fundamental dynamics of a race in which Democrats face an incumbent, term-limited Republican president. Part 1 focuses on an examination of the long shot candidates -- those trading at five cents or less -- including Ruben Gallego, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Andy Beshear.

Do Your Politics Affect How You Bet?

The UBK Gang examines whether political identity quietly shapes the way people bet on prediction markets, and whether platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are as ideologically neutral as they claim to be. The research says they're not. A study of 1.8 million Polymarket betting records found that political leanings directly translate into economic outcomes. Researchers call it "wishful thinking bias." The gang discusses how to use this to effect to shape investment strategy.