Defence Investment is evolving fast, and the winners are in Ukraine.

Why Is America so Successful compared to Europe?

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 16th, 2026 “Oh, would some power give us the gift to see ourselves as others see us…” In the past 15 years the US economy has left Europe in the rear-view mirror. While America booms, Europe appears to be flatlining. The question is why? Americans say it’s entirely Europe’s fault: bad policies, failing politics, and lack of unity. However, the consequences of the (as yet unresolved) European Sovereign debt crisis triggered by the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 was the speedbump. This morning’s quote is from Robert Burns. It’s from “To a Louse”, which is very apt for this Morning’s Porridge. Sometimes we just don’t know how stupid, daft or misguided we are. Many of us are too thin-skinned to listen. Others take criticism with a pinch of salt – railing back against those who find fault on the basis our detractors are often blind hypocrites! But it’s worth listening to what folk say about us… even when it hurts. Recently an American Hedge Fund chum lambasted myself and an audience of Europeans for Europe’s failure to match US growth over the last 15 years – back then the two continents were about even in terms of per-capita GDP. Europe’s share of Global GDP has since tumbled from 30% to 17%. US GDP per capita is now double Europe’s. The USA is leading the innovation of tech and has become far more productive than Europe. My chum made some painful observations on European policy mistakes and explained the data. His point was simple – Europe should stop blaming Trump for its’ problems and focus on the internal reasons it is failing. It was one of these moments to listen and ask why it happened. So, I did listen. Europe has failed in many ways.   You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠ [http://www.morningporridge.com], and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Is Norway the model other economies should follow?

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 13th, 2026 – Is Norway the model other economies should follow? “There is a huge benefit coming from a small country like Norway.” C’mon. England won, but Norway was sparkling. It’s a genuine shame they are out the World Cup, but didn’t they do well? There is much that Norway’s successful blend of capitalist social democracy could teach the rest of the West. Most countries squander their abilities and resources – not Norway. I’m notionally on holiday this week... but I will be writing brief comments on whatever amuses and intrigues me while sailing… This morning… Norway. I agree with the England manager Thomas Tuchel’s assessment of Saturday night’s Norway match. England were sloppy, and they were lucky – lucky to have Jude Bellingham so focused and skilled. On Wednesday England face Argentina as marginal favourites – the probability markets say between 52%-57% likely the Three Lions will reach the final. Messi vs Bellingham? Atlanta will be a marginally better venue that the Maimi pressure cooker. I have been relearning the chords for Wonderwall on my guitar! But Norway have been the absolute stars of the tournament. There may be a lesson in their success. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠ [http://www.morningporridge.com], and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

What if the AI Bubble Fails to Deliver?

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 10th, 2026 – What if the AI Bubble Fails to Deliver? “Expectations are the root of all heartache…” The AI market has been diving business expectations and markets – everyone believes it will deliver a growth, productivity and profit revolution across the global economy. What if it doesn’t? What if it’s not a leap forward, but just a step-change?  What do Alcohol, Tobacco, Umpty Candy, Cannabis, Gambling, Fentanyl, Bloomberg and AI have in common? They were all “discovered” or invented by folk believing they would do good – but were monetised by profiteers who realised how addictive and mind numbing they were likely to be… I was thinking about this yesterday and realised that even an old abacus and pebbles chap like myself uses AI to make my day simpler and faster. My chum Claude can assemble data and facts on markets and targets faster than ever I could myself. But, if I had to pay more than the minimal cost I currently pay, I’d be struggling. And we all know current cost and future costs of AI will be oceans apart. Users will not get rich. The providers of AI services… might. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠ [http://www.morningporridge.com], and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Why I’d be voting for Binny MacBinface!

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 9th, 2026 – Why I’d be voting for Binny MacBinface! “The problem with political jokes is that they get elected…” The fear of what might follow The Labour Government haunts the Gilts Market. Relief may come from the political implosion of Nigel Farage. Grubby Sleaze surrounds him as the UK’s much-loved Man of the People morphs into a discount-priced Mini-me version of Trump. The Crypto and graft entanglements that envelop him have shattered what made him so successful. Farage is no longer one of us. He is Them. It’s 10-years since the UK’s Natural Environment Council decided it be terwibbly democratic to let the Great British Public choose the name of its new polar research vessel. Someone suggested “Boaty MacBoatface” and everyone thought it a wonderful giggle. Naturally the comedy name won the popular vote… but the thought of the UK’s territorial ambitions being represented around the Southern Oceans by Boaty MacBoatface was too much for the British Antarctic Survey who would operate the vessel. A compromise was reached. The ship was named the Sir David Attenborough after a genuine national treasure.  Since the ship and the drone submersible given the Boaty MacBoatface moniker were launched in 2020 they’ve done sterling research work. The great British Public like nothing more than a good old-fashioned belly-laugh at the expense of the establishment. Which leads me to wonder if Nigel Farage has just made a massive Binny MacBinface error. Wouldn’t it be funny if he loses the Clacton By-Election to Count Binface – the comedy successor to the Monster Raving Looney Party?

Is this the End of Nato?

Blain’s Morning Porridge, July 8th, 2026: Is this the End of Nato?  “Trump is America’s answer to Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, weakening a superpower he meant to strengthen.” NATO has been the core of the Western Alliance and Transatlantic Economy. The men in the ill-fitting Florsheim dress shoes have broken it. What will follow is uncertain, but will clearly impact global markets and geopolitics to an enormous degree. The deepening Atlantic rift puts the need for European defence, sovereignty and resilience right at the top of the priority list.  Will this week’s Ankara NATO summit be remembered as the moment NATO ruptured? The summit is heading for the rocks. The strongest and most successful military alliance and economic alignment in global history is cracked. If/when it splinters into broken shards, it will be the definitional end to the era of growth and prosperity that defined the American era. The end of the transatlantic economy will have massive consequences for global trade, markets, and geopolitical alliances. Every investor should be factoring in the probabilities it may happen with their portfolio structures in terms of bonds and tech. It will trigger a rethink/reset of literally every single aspect of modern societies in terms of who controls what, supply chains, and strategic sovereignty as “the pond” becomes a “sundering sea”. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠ [http://www.morningporridge.com], and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!