Week 24 Opens: Strategic Positioning

Geographic Spotlight: Uzbekistan

Friday, July 17, 2026. UZBEKISTAN ENERGY MARKET OVERVIEW. Uzbekistan is major natural gas producer and declining crude oil producer. Shifted from net exporter to increasingly import-dependent. NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION: Q1 2026 9.6 bcm (15% drop from 11.3 bcm Q1 2025). First five months 2026 15.8 bcm (down from 18.4 bcm same period 2025; ~14% decline or ~2.6 bcm drop). January 2026 3.7 bcm (down 7.5% YoY). 2026 FULL-YEAR TARGET: 40.2 bcm (planned). 2025 FULL-YEAR MARKETED PRODUCTION: 40.4 bcm (OPEC data). EXPORT REVENUES/IMPORT SPENDING: Export revenues Q1 2026 $36.7M (down sharply from $94.3M Q1 2025). Import spending Q1 2026 $360.5M on natural gas imports (up 2.2x YoY). RUSSIAN PIPELINE GAS SUPPLIES: Expected to rise to just over 10 bcm in 2026 (from 7 bcm in 2025; >40% increase) routed via Kazakhstan through Central Asia-Center system. GLOBAL RANKING: ~17th in natural gas production (mid-40s bcm range annually). TREND: Shifted from long-time net exporter, relying increasingly on imports due to aging fields, rising domestic demand, declining output. CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: Current 29,000 bbl/d (March 2026; unchanged from prior months). Record low 29,000 bbl/d reached Aug 2025. Long-term avg since 1993 ~65,000 bbl/d. 2024 PRODUCTION: 46,122 bbl/d. Q1 2026 OUTPUT (TONS): 157,300 tons (down from 160,800 tons Q1 2025). January 2026 54,100 tons (1.8% decline YoY). PROVEN RESERVES: 594M barrels (2025); ranks #46 globally; ~0.034% of world reserves. NEW EXPLORATION POTENTIAL: Ustyurt region estimated 100M tons of oil + 35 bcm of gas; projects targeting up to 1M tons bitumen oil production by 2025, larger long-term output. PRODUCTION CONCENTRATION: Bukhara-Khiva ~70% of output historically. NEW PARTNERSHIPS: New production sharing agreements/seismic work (e.g., with BP/SOCAR in 2026) aim to boost future output; near-term figures show continued decline. PRODUCTION TREND: Trended downward from peaks in late 1990s. THE READ: Natural gas 9.6 bcm Q1 2026, down 15% YoY, export revenues collapsed, import spending up 2.2x, Russian imports surging, structural shift from exporter to importer. Crude oil 29,000 bbl/d record low, down from 65,000 avg since 1993, proven reserves 594M barrels, new exploration potential in Ustyurt, near-term decline trend. UZBEKISTAN ENERGY THESIS: Natural gas production declining sharply, export revenues collapsing, import dependency rising, Russian pipeline gas surging, crude oil at record lows, structural shift from exporter to importer, new exploration potential offers long-term upside but near-term headwinds persist. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Geographic Spotlight: Mexico

Thursday, July 16, 2026. MEXICO ENERGY MARKET OVERVIEW. Mexico is a major crude oil producer and net natural gas importer. Energy sector dominated by Pemex (state-owned petroleum company). CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: Q1 2026 1.652M bpd (up 38k from Q1 2025). March 2026 1.745M bbl/d (up from 1.736M Feb 2026). 2026 government target 1.8M bpd (facing significant challenges/potential delays). Finance ministry forecast ~1.78M bpd in 2026. 2025 avg ~1.6M bpd. Mid-2025 Aug ~1.64M bpd. KEY CRUDE OIL FIELDS: Maloob, Ixachi, Zaap, Ayatsil, Quesqui. S&P GLOBAL ASSESSMENT: Questions feasibility of 1.8M bpd target; cites ongoing operational issues/need for continued government support. 2026 INVESTMENT PLAN: ~425B pesos (~$21B; 34% increase) to Pemex targeting 1.8M bpd crude/4.5 Bcf/d natural gas through 2030. REFINING: Crude refining rose 22.2% YoY in Q1 2026 to 1.141M bpd. BROADER CONTEXT: Long-term decline from historical peaks; efforts focused on new fields, mixed contracts, attracting private investment. NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION: Q1 2026 wet/hydrocarbon gas 3.925 Bcf/d (up 12% or +423 MMcf/d YoY). Dry gas ~2.3 Bcf/d (recently; projected to stay near 2.299-2.302 Bcf/d in 2025-2026). Q2 2025 3.592 Bcf/d (down ~139 MMcf/d YoY); dry gas from plants 1.615 Bcf/d (down 12% YoY). 2025 FULL-YEAR OUTPUT: ~3.67 Bcf/d total; dry gas ~1.7 Bcf/d. DOMESTIC DEMAND/IMPORT RELIANCE: Domestic demand ~9 Bcf/d (or higher). Domestic production share only ~25%; ~75% imported (mainly via U.S. pipelines). U.S. EXPORT FORECASTS TO MEXICO: ~6.83 Bcf/d in 2025 (up from 6.46 Bcf/d in 2024); continued strength/records expected into 2026 due to Pemex output constraints. HISTORICAL CONTEXT: Pemex dry gas production declined from ~5 Bcf/d in 2010 to ~2.3 Bcf/d recently. LONGER-TERM TARGETS: >4 Bcf/d by 2030 (potentially up to 8.6 Bcf/d with unconventional development). KEY NATURAL GAS FIELDS: Bakté, Ixachi. EXPORT POSITION: Mexico net importer; minimal natural gas exports. THE READ: Crude 1.65-1.75M bpd, 1.8 target at risk, refining up 22%, investment plan in place, long-term decline trend. Gas 3.9 Bcf/d wet, 2.3 dry, 75% imported from U.S., Pemex output constraints driving record U.S. exports to Mexico. MEXICO ENERGY THESIS: Crude production stable but below target, refining gains supporting domestic supply, natural gas heavily import-dependent, U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico at record levels, long-term structural challenge for Pemex. Trade the data, not the headlines.

EIA Petroleum Status Report Released

Wednesday, July 15, 2026. EIA PETROLEUM STATUS REPORT RELEASED. Jul 15, 2026, 10:30 a.m. ET. Covering week ending ~Jul 10, 2026. CRUDE OIL INVENTORY DATA: Prior week (ending Jul 3, released Jul 8): U.S. crude oil inventories 411.4M barrels (+3.0M week-over-week; first build after 10 consecutive weeks of declines). Level ~6% below 5-year average for this time of year. REFINERY METRICS: Crude oil refinery inputs 17.0M b/d (down 173k b/d from prior week). Refinery operable capacity utilization 95.8%. Gasoline production 9.7M b/d (decreased from prior week). Distillate fuel production 5.2M b/d (decreased from prior week). IMPORTS/PRODUCTS: Crude oil imports 5.6M b/d (up 351k b/d from prior week); 4-week avg ~5.4M b/d (down 11.4% YoY). Motor gasoline inventories decreased 1.9M barrels week-over-week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased 5.0M barrels week-over-week (~12% below 5-year average). Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased 4.0M barrels week-over-week. DEMAND METRICS: Total products supplied (4-week avg) 20.6M b/d (+0.3% YoY). 4-week motor gasoline supplied 9.0M b/d (down 2.2% YoY). BROADER CONTEXT: Global/OECD inventory draws due to geopolitical factors (Middle East supply disruptions). OECD stocks heading toward multi-decade lows. Global inventories forecast to shift toward builds later 2026. PRICE FORECASTS: EIA forecasts Brent ~$74/bbl in 3Q26, ~$65/bbl in 2027 amid easing inventory pressure/rising supply. IEA OIL MARKET REPORT (Jul 2026): Refined product cracks/margins at 4-year highs in early Jul as crude supplies rose/prices fell. Global observed inventories rose in Jun for first time in months. NATURAL GAS STORAGE REPORT: EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (most recent; week ending Jul 3, released Jul 9). Storage level working gas 2,983 Bcf as of Jul 3, 2026. Weekly change net injection +61 Bcf (above consensus ~58-60 Bcf; above 5-year avg ~51-54 Bcf). Year-over-year 15 Bcf below same week last year. 5-year avg 185 Bcf (~7%) above 5-year average 2,798 Bcf. MARKET CONTEXT: Build occurred amid peak summer cooling demand/record heat. Production strong. LNG feedgas near 19 Bcf/d. PRICE IMPACT: Larger-than-expected injection viewed as bearish. Contributed to declines in natural gas futures. Aug contract dropped notably post-report. REGIONAL NOTE: Midwest saw highest net injections (~23 Bcf) in reported week. HENRY HUB FUTURES/SPOT: Henry Hub futures mid-Jul 2026 trading ~$2.89-$2.90/MMBtu (~2.898 recent data). Henry Hub spot Jun 2026 monthly avg ~$3.14/MMBtu. Broader 2026 avg projected near $3.60/MMBtu in EIA outlooks. OUTLOOK: High inventories expected to limit upward price pressure through 2026. Henry Hub spot forecast to avg just under $3.50/MMBtu for year in some EIA projections. Next release Jul 16, 2026 (Thursday, 10:30 a.m. ET). THE READ: Crude first build after 10 weeks of declines, inventories 6% below 5-year average, refinery runs down, demand flat, geopolitical premium fading. Support $75, resistance $82. Gas larger-than-expected injection bearish for near-term, high inventories limiting upside, target $3.50 for year. WEEK 28 MIDWEEK THESIS: Crude inventory build signals easing supply stress, geopolitical premium fading. Support $75, resistance $82. Gas storage build bearish, high inventories limiting upside, target $3.50 for year. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Technicals: Week 28

Tuesday, July 14, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS. WTI crude oil trading ~$79.40-$80.05. Sharp recent rally. Price surged 10%+ in week leading into Jul 14 driven by geopolitical developments (US measures affecting Iranian oil transit through Strait of Hormuz). TECHNICAL SIGNALS: Strong Buy based on technical indicators/moving averages. RSI(14) ~80.7-82.0 (Overbought territory; potential caution for pullbacks/consolidation). MACD(12,26) ~1.72-1.73 (Buy signal; bullish momentum). Overall technical summary Strong Buy (8-12 buy signals across indicators, 0 sell). PIVOT POINTS: Classic pivot ~79.51. Supports 79.12/78.69/78.3. Resistances 79.94/80.33/80.76. BOLLINGER BANDS: Limited specific Jul 2026 data. Prices consolidating near middle band after decline, suggesting waning bearish momentum. No strong upper band touch/squeeze noted in latest analysis. SUPPORT/RESISTANCE LEVELS: Support zones around 73-74, 70-71. Lower Fibonacci retracements ~68-70 area. Resistance near-term around 80-82. Longer-term Fibonacci extensions higher. CONTEXT: Earlier Jul RSI was oversold (~29) with bearish MACD bias. Prices hovered mid-$68s before recent rally. MOMENTUM: Strong recent momentum (+2%+ daily moves) aligns with bullish MACD/RSI overbought conditions. Watch for potential reversal if RSI fails to sustain or price rejects upper levels. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Henry Hub futures ~$2.89/MMBtu (down 0.19% from prior day; down 1.63% or -1.70% in some reports). CME FUTURES: NGQ26 last at $2.902 (-1.29%) as of Jul 13 close. Investing.com futures $2.891 (-1.70%), previous close $2.896. RECENT PRICE ACTION: Jul 10 close $3.02. Jul 9 $3.22. Intraday ranges recently around $2.87-$3.02. SPOT VERSUS FUTURES: EIA spot Jul 6 $3.29 (down from $3.34 prior; weekly/daily updates lag). Spot prices lagging at higher levels (~$3.29 early Jul). Futures trading near $2.89-$2.90. THE SETUP: Crude overbought, RSI 80+, watch for pullback. Support 78.3-79.12, resistance 80.33-80.76. Gas futures down, spot holding higher, contango structure intact. WEEK 28 TECHNICALS: Crude Strong Buy but overbought, caution for pullbacks. Support 78.3, resistance 80.76. Gas futures down, spot holding, accumulation zone intact. Trade the charts, respect the levels.

Week 28 Opens: Strategic Positioning

Monday, July 13, 2026. WEEK 28 OPENS. WTI crude oil trading ~$74.42 (open $73.79, high $74.64, low $73.72, +0.87%). Sharp rebound from prior session. CME live quote late Jul 12 showed $74.36 (+4.13% or +$2.95 on day). CRUDE OIL SETUP: Prices risen from lows near $68-$71 earlier in July. Upward momentum into mid-month (fluctuated $68.55 Jul 6 to $73.52 Jul 8). Well below 2025-early 2026 highs (over $100 in some periods). KEY LEVELS: Resistance $74 (potential decision point for bullish moves above or bearish below ~$70). Support $70, resistance $75-$76. TECHNICAL SETUP: Crude consolidating mid-$70s range. Doha talks progress supporting sentiment. Watch for Strait of Hormuz developments. Geopolitical premium intact but fading. NATURAL GAS: Most recent spot Jul 6 $3.29/MMBtu (down from $3.34 prior day). Futures Jul 12 ~$2.915/MMBtu (-0.025 or -0.85%). Jul 10 futures close ~$2.95 (or $2.94 in some reports). Earlier July spot hovered $3.21-$3.34. DOHA TALKS UPDATE: Indirect US-Iran technical talks in Doha concluded ~Jul 1-2, 2026. Focus on Strait of Hormuz/related issues under earlier interim MOU. FORMAT: Indirect/technical talks (not direct bilateral meetings in all accounts). US envoys Steve Witkoff/Jared Kushner meeting Qatari officials (Emir/Prime Minister) alongside Iranian technical delegations via mediators. Qatar/Pakistan facilitated. PRIMARY TOPICS: Maritime traffic/shipping resumption through Strait of Hormuz (critical chokepoint handling ~20% global oil trade). Unfreezing Iranian assets/funds (~$6B references). Implementation of prior MOU/ceasefire. OTHER TOPICS: Nuclear issues, Lebanon ceasefire, broader peace discussed but limited headway. OUTCOMES: "Positive progress" or "building on" Jun interim MOU that halted fighting. Both sides agreed continue talks. No breakthrough on lasting peace deal or full nuclear agreement. VP Vance described talks as "going well" and "still pretty early." CONTEXT: Followed tit-for-tat US-Iran strikes over Hormuz shipping disputes earlier 2026. Initial interim deal mid-Jun 2026 halted attacks, reopened strait to pre-war shipping levels, extended ceasefire (~60 days in some reports), paved way for further nuclear talks. Iran faced accusations of attacks/toll proposals; US pushed against fees/tolls in favor of broader economic incentives. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: Talks occurred ahead of/around funeral for Iran's former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei (killed in earlier strikes). Some reports noted pauses/questions about resumption post-funeral (around Jul 11) amid mentions of additional US strikes. STATUS: As of early Jul, existing Hormuz-related agreements remained in place despite stalled broader negotiations. THE READ: Crude consolidating mid-$70s, Doha talks progress supporting sentiment, geopolitical premium intact but fading. Support $70, resistance $75-$76. Gas $3.29 spot, $2.915 futures, accumulation zone intact. WEEK 28 THESIS: Crude Doha talks progress positive, Hormuz risk declining, geopolitical premium fading. Support $70, resistance $75-$76. Gas accumulation zone intact, target $4.00+. Trade the data, not the headlines.