Israel’s best and worst case scenarios | Raphael Ben Levi

The UN helps terrorism thrive in Gaza | Olga Deutsch

Tens of thousands chant for revenge in Tehran as the country buries Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Talks between Tehran and Washington have been paused until after the funeral ceremonies conclude, with Israel warning that any future Iranian leader who seeks the destruction of the Jewish state will meet the same fate. Meanwhile, Hamas is reportedly preparing to dissolve its governing body in Gaza and hand power to a committee of Palestinian technocrats as part of plans for the Strip’s post-war administration. But major obstacles remain, including Hamas’s refusal to disarm and the continuing deadlock in negotiations with Israel. Israel and Greece have carried out a joint air force exercise near Turkish airspace, while France is positioning itself for a major role in post-war Syria, with President Emmanuel Macron expected to become the first European Union leader to visit Damascus since the fall of Bashar al-Assad. And in a reminder of both the trauma of October 7 and the resilience that followed, two former hostages abducted together from Kibbutz Nir Oz have married in Israel after surviving captivity in Gaza. Today’s guest is Olga Deutsch, Vice President of NGO Monitor and Senior Fellow at Misgav. She argues that billions of dollars channelled through the United Nations and its agencies are not promoting peace, but instead helping to sustain terrorism and perpetuate the cycle of conflict.

Israel must remain beyond its borders | Yaakov Lappin

One thousand days after the October 7 attacks, Israel’s security establishment says the country has adopted a new doctrine: don’t deter terrorists, make it impossible for them to act. Meanwhile, talks between the United States and Iran have been paused until after the funeral of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, with negotiations in Doha focusing only on the Strait of Hormuz and frozen Iranian funds rather than Tehran’s nuclear programme. Despite the limited progress, hopes for diplomacy have pushed oil prices to their lowest levels since the start of the war. At the same time, the regional security landscape continues to shift. Syria’s foreign minister has made his first official visit to Beirut since President Trump suggested Syrian forces could help tackle Hezbollah, while Syria and Lebanon have joined regional security talks hosted by CENTCOM for the first time alongside Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. Elsewhere, Germany is deepening its defence partnership with Israel, announcing plans for a second Arrow 3 missile defence site as Europe races to strengthen protection against ballistic missile threats. And despite months of regional turmoil, Israeli startups raised at least $3.3 billion in June alone, putting the country on track for one of its strongest fundraising years since 2021. Today’s guest is Yaakov Lappin, security analyst and host of The Lappin Assessment. He argues that the painful lessons of October 7 gave birth to a new Israeli security doctrine — one that compels Israel to remain beyond its borders and neutralise threats rather than seek to deter them. _____________________________________________________________________________________ Sign up to receive Israel in 10 daily: https://izs.activetrail.biz/Israel-in-10-Sign-Up [https://izs.activetrail.biz/Israel-in-10-Sign-Up] Sponsorship inquiries: MisgavDailyBrief@gmail.com

Turkey’s Radical Sunni Axis | Noa Lazimi

Iran is back to its time wasting tactics as it refuses to hold direct talks with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Instead, technical discussions are taking place indirectly through mediators Qatar and Pakistan. Iran has also ruled out any discussion of its drone and missile programmes, while the Wall Street Journal reports that President Trump had considered a return to military action but, for now, prefers to give diplomacy more time. Meanwhile, the European Union’s aviation safety agency has extended its warning against flights over Iran, Iraq and Lebanon, citing uncertainty over the durability of the ceasefire and the risk of rapid escalation across the region. Israel has announced sanctions against dozens of cryptocurrency wallets linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, saying they were being used to funnel millions of dollars to Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed groups following the heavy losses suffered by the Lebanese terror organisation during the war. At the same time, Israel says it has successfully tested the new Iron Beam laser interceptor alongside an upgraded Iron Dome system, in what officials describe as a major step forward in defending against increasingly sophisticated missile and drone attacks. Today’s guest is Noa Lazimi, Research Fellow at the Misgav Institute and an international relations analyst. She argues that Turkey is building a growing radical Sunni axis stretching from Qatar to Pakistan and Syria, and warns that President Erdogan increasingly sees Israel as the main obstacle to his regional ambitions. _____________________________________________________________________________________ Sign up to receive Israel in 10 daily: https://izs.activetrail.biz/Israel-in-10-Sign-Up [https://izs.activetrail.biz/Israel-in-10-Sign-Up] Sponsorship inquiries: MisgavDailyBrief@gmail.com

Lebanon’s moment of truth | Hussain Abdul-Hussain

President Trump announces talks with Tehran resume in Doha today, while Iran insists no meeting with American officials is planned. President Masoud Pezeshkian says the interim deal has the full backing of Supreme Leader Khamenei, even as criticism grows inside Iran and reports emerge of tensions between political figures and the IRGC. Meanwhile, a new diplomatic row is brewing over the Strait of Hormuz after Iran warned France not to interfere in mine-clearing operations and insisted responsibility for securing the strategic waterway rests exclusively with Tehran. The disruption to shipping through the strait is also raising fears of a difficult winter in Europe, with gas reserves expected to fall to their lowest levels in more than a decade. In Gaza, efforts to secure Hamas’s disarmament appear to have stalled after the group’s leader, Khalil al-Hayya, reportedly adopted a tougher position in negotiations over the future of the Strip and the implementation of President Trump’s peace plan. Today’s guest is Hussain Abdul-Hussain, Research Fellow at the FDD and the author of ‘The Arab case for Israel’. He answers skeptics of Israel’s landmark agreement with Lebanon which he says can result in the disarming of Hezbollah and is Lebanon’s last chance to reclaim sovereignty from Tehran. _____________________________________________________________________________________ Sign up to receive Israel in 10 daily: https://izs.activetrail.biz/Israel-in-10-Sign-Up [https://izs.activetrail.biz/Israel-in-10-Sign-Up] Sponsorship inquiries: MisgavDailyBrief@gmail.com

Iran is furious about Lebanon | Meir Javedanfar

The United States and Iran are set to resume talks in Qatar on Tuesday to shore up the strained ceasefire after a weekend of renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz. Key Hezbollah ally, Lebanon’s parliament speaker Nabih Berry says an emerging agreement with Israel ‘will not pass’ The U.S.-backed deal would pave the way for formal peace between Jerusalem and Beirut and link a full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon to Hezbollah’s disarmament. The IDF destroys a major Hezbollah tunnel network in southern Lebanon, killing members of the group’s elite Radwan Force and underscoring Israel’s determination to continue targeting Hezbollah infrastructure despite growing diplomatic pressure. Today’s guest is Dr Meir Javedanfar, Iran lecturer at Reichman University. He says Tehran is furious about developments in Lebanon, where it has failed to secure meaningful protection for its most important proxy, Hezbollah. He argues the Islamic Republic will continue rebuilding its network of regional proxies because they remain one of its most effective tools of deterrence and influence. Today’s guest is Dr Meir Javedanfar, Iran Lecturer at Reichman University. He says Iran is furious about the situation in Lebanon where it has failed to secure protection for its proxy, Hezbollah. He also argue the Islamic Republic will never give up on rebuilding these proxies as they are an effective source of deterrence. _____________________________________________________________________________________ Sign up to receive Israel in 10 daily: https://izs.activetrail.biz/Israel-in-10-Sign-Up [https://izs.activetrail.biz/Israel-in-10-Sign-Up] Sponsorship inquiries: MisgavDailyBrief@gmail.com