Jobs Friday, Shifting Markets, and What Comes Next

Consumer Confidence Meets Congress: This Week on the Macrocast

This week on the Macrocast, Brendan and Ed were joined by frequent guest John Dick of CivicScience to review his latest Economic Sentiment Index. John discussed the continued improvement of consumer sentiment, indicating that, while still below last year's readings, the consumer continues to feel increasingly comfortable with their economic status. The group discussed how this summer's readings seem to reflect a generally positive cultural and economic vibe, with a record-breaking Prime Day from last month, positive vibes from an exciting and successful World Cup, and celebration of America's 250th birthday. John also commented on small changes in the partisan identification of voters, with a small increase in voters moving away from both political parties to register as nonaffiliated. John also identified changes in federal government policies related to student loan repayment as a potential warning sign in the months ahead. He also defended the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment readings, which have received some criticism online and, in some newspapers, expressing admiration for their methodology and transparency. Brendan and Ed discussed the week's bank earnings, which reported blowout capital-markets and investment-banking results but also reflected a strong consumer, consistent with ESI readings. Finally, the group discussed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's semiannual testimony before Congress. While Chair Warsh didn't provide any expectations or plans for changes in interest rates, he did provide a detailed description of the Working Groups intended to provide input on his plans to revise Fed operations and monetary policy decision-making. He also defended the concept of Fed independence and renewed his calls for decreasing the size of the Fed balance sheet. John closed the podcast with some examples of ESI data points that could indicate continued optimism among younger consumers. For more about the hosts, please see below:  Forbes Tate Partners [https://forbes-tate.com/] Markets Policy Partners  [https://marketspolicy.com/]

The Fed's New Chapter, Middle East Tensions, and a Senate in Flux

This week on Macrocast, the team breaks down Chair Warsh's first moves at the helm of a divided FOMC and what the June meeting minutes reveal about the growing rift between hawks and doves. Market odds on a rate hike remain low for now but are expected to climb in the months ahead. The episode digs into what's driving that shift. The team covers mixed economic signals, with strong ISM services data colliding against declining manufacturing employment. Also on the agenda: the resumption of US-Iran hostilities after their ceasefire ended, sending oil prices higher, though still holding relatively steady. On Capitol Hill, the episode covers the Senate leadership shakeup amid Senator McConnell's absence and what it means for the SAVE Act and upcoming appropriations decisions. For more about the hosts, please see below:  Forbes Tate Partners [https://forbes-tate.com/] Markets Policy Partners  [https://marketspolicy.com/]

Unpacking the Labor Slowdown and the Fed's New Playbook

This week on the Macrocast, the team analyzes the latest jobs report numbers, including labor market pressures and a surprising contraction in the leisure and hospitality sector. The discussion then turns to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's debut at a central bank conference in Portugal, where his focus on inflation and a lack of forward guidance left markets weighing potential rate hikes ahead of the midterm elections. The episode also covers key policy updates from Washington, including the bipartisan passage of a housing bill through Congress, before closing with a look at the World Cup. From the entire team, Happy Fourth of July, and stay cool in the heat!  For more about the hosts, please see below:  Forbes Tate Partners [https://forbes-tate.com/] Markets Policy Partners  [https://marketspolicy.com/]

Midsummer Slump: Tech Pulls Back, Inflation Sticks, and Congress Moves on Housing

Financial markets had a turbulent week, and the Macrocast team is sorting through the noise. Chip prices are climbing, semiconductor valuations look stretched, and investors are pulling back on AI-adjacent bets. Brendan explains what's driving the selloff and whether it's a correction or something more serious. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is keeping rates elevated while inflation stays sticky, and the newly announced Iran oil deal hasn't delivered the oil price relief markets expected. Abroad, Prime Minister Starmer's government faces a mounting fiscal crisis and Japan's yen has fallen to its weakest level in four decades. Ed closes with the latest from Capitol Hill: housing legislation is headed to the president's desk, with crypto regulation and the defense authorization bill next in line. For more about the hosts, please see below:  Forbes Tate Partners [https://forbes-tate.com/] Markets Policy Partners  [https://marketspolicy.com/]

Summer Heat: Retail Booms, Housing Slumps, and a Hawkish Fed ft. John Dick

In this episode, Macrocast regular John Dick of CivicScience joins the team to unpack the latest consumer sentiment numbers. The Economic Sentiment Index just hit its highest point since mid-April, retail sales came in nearly double expectations, and yet housing starts dropped to a six-year low. So what's actually going on with the American consumer? They also get into how much sports and cultural moments like the World Cup are moving spending patterns, plus Ed's read on new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish debut and what it means for rates by year-end. They close out on the Iran deal and why consumers aren't exactly celebrating. For more about the hosts, please see below:  Forbes Tate Partners [https://forbes-tate.com/] Markets Policy Partners  [https://marketspolicy.com/] CivicScience [https://civicscience.com/about-us/]