Brief: An Apache and a Yen

Brief: Nothing Settled

The Iran deal signed Wednesday collapsed before its own ceremony, with Geneva postponed and the ceasefire it was meant to stabilize fraying on the Lebanese border. Strategy's perpetual-preferred stack crosses $10 billion into a hawkish rate regime that raises its funding cost at the worst moment, an

Super Brief: Nothing Settled — Super Brief

Nothing Settled. The Iran nuclear MOU signed Wednesday collapsed before its own Geneva ceremony. The signing was downgraded to a conditional meeting, CENTCOM lifted its naval blockade of Iranian oil even as the framework dissolved, and the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire it was meant to stabilize began fraying on the Leb

Brief: Bounced, Not Cleared

Equities bought the dip from the post-FOMC selloff while the bond market quietly flattened, two time horizons reading the same data and reaching opposite conclusions. Ukraine launched its largest drone attack on Moscow since the full-scale invasion, Noam Shazeer left Google for OpenAI, and the hotte

Super Brief: Bounced, Not Cleared — Super Brief

Bounced, Not Cleared. The S&P recovered 1.08% to 7,500 and the Nasdaq jumped nearly 2%, a clean post-FOMC dip-buy. But the bounce came on no new information, and the bond market did not follow. The curve flattened from the long end, the shape that preceded the policy reversals of 1995, 2006, and 2019, not the soft landin

Brief: Rates Held. Guidance Didn't.

The Fed held rates exactly as expected and the market sold off anyway, because the real move was not the decision but the information architecture around it. The dot plot tilted sharply hawkish, Iran signed its nuclear MOU but Trump revealed a ballistic missile concession at the G7, and the largest