The Adversarial Testing Podcast

The AI Economy Debate: What the Evidence Actually Shows

28 min · 6. maj 2026
episode The AI Economy Debate: What the Evidence Actually Shows cover

Description

Same technology, same evidence, twentyfold gap in macro forecasts. We walk through the empirical record on AI's economic impact — adoption, worker-level RCTs, the Danish null, Acemoglu's macro arithmetic, the Anthropic Economic Index, and where the data converges.

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12 episodes

episode Writing Code vs. Shipping Code: Productivity Effects Across Generations of AI Coding Tools (Abstract, Introduction & Conclusion) artwork

Writing Code vs. Shipping Code: Productivity Effects Across Generations of AI Coding Tools (Abstract, Introduction & Conclusion)

The abstract, introduction, and conclusion of NBER Working Paper No. 35275 by Mert Demirer, Leon Musolff, and Liyuan Yang (May 2026). Using data on more than 100,000 GitHub developers and their AI usage telemetry, the paper traces how the productivity effects of AI coding tools evolve across three generations - autocomplete, sync agents, and async agents - and asks how much of those task-level gains reach final output. Each generation sharply increases coding activity, but the gains attenuate steeply across the production hierarchy: large effects on lines of code shrink to small effects on releases, consistent with a weak-link model in which human review and integration remain the binding constraint.

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