How to Think About the Future (Part 3): Uphill Futures in a Downhill World | Frankly 145

We Weren't Expecting This: What Does a Super El Niño Mean For the Climate? with Tad Patzek

This year's projected Super El Niño forming in the Pacific could become one of the strongest climate oscillations in over a century. As regions prepare for the effects, and continue to adapt to extreme heat waves, intensifying storms, accelerating ice loss, and increasingly erratic rainfall, scientists and citizens alike are questioning what our new normal will look like under accelerated global heating. From climate basics to unfolding atmospheric research, what do we know about the trajectory our climate is currently on, and what gaps of knowledge still need to be filled? In this episode, Nate is joined by earth scientist and thermodynamicist Tad Patzek for an exploration of the mechanics and mathematics of global heating itself. Tad explains why CO₂ has such an outsized effect in contrast to its small concentration, how water vapor amplifies the greenhouse effect, and why climate models sometimes get things wrong. His new research, currently under peer review at Geophysical Research Letters, identifies a declining Earth albedo as an additional accelerant of warming over the past 26 years. Combined with accelerating ocean heat absorption, melting ice sheets, and the dynamics of an approaching Super El Niño, Tad argues the warming curve itself may be bending upward. Is the projected Super El Niño a signal of more extreme climatic swings to come? What sort of research is being done to explore and predict climate feedback dynamics that are only partly understood? And if the warming curve is indeed bending upward, what does it mean to plan, prepare, or adapt when the system itself may be moving faster than our models anticipated? (Conversation recorded on June 18th, 2026) About Tad Patzek: Tad Patzek is Professor Emeritus of Petroleum and Chemical Engineering at the Earth Sciences Division and Director of the Ali I. Al-Naimi Petroleum Engineering Research Center in KAUST, Saudi Arabia. Formerly, he was the Lois K. and Richard D. Folger Leadership Professor and Chairman of the Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering Department at The University of Texas at Austin. Additionally, he was previously a Professor of Geoengineering at the University of California, Berkeley. Prior to joining Berkeley, he was a researcher at Shell Development, a research company managed for 20 years by M. King Hubbert. He is also a full Presidential Professor in Poland, which is the highest honor, and also served as a member of the DOI Macondo Well Advisory Committee. Patzek's current research involves mathematical and numerical modeling of earth systems with emphasis on fluid flow in soils and rocks that can be hydrofractured. He is working on the thermodynamics and ecology of human survival, and food and energy supply for humanity. His current emphasis is the use of unconventional natural gas as a fuel bridge to the possible new energy supply schemes for the world. Patzek is a coauthor of over 400 papers and reports, and most recently, he has cumulated his research into his upcoming book Thermal Power and Climate Change: A Data-Driven Analysis of Cause and Effect, 1800-2100 (Preprint available now [https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/10865/]) Show Notes and More [https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/225-tad-patzek] Watch this video episode on YouTube [https://youtu.be/VkjbmVLJGu4] Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. [https://youtu.be/-xr9rIQxwj4?feature=shared] --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future [https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/support] Join our Substack newsletter [https://natehagens.substack.com/] Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners [https://www.hylo.com/groups/the-great-simplification/join/i9jLqPmbGI]

How to Play 5D Chess: It's Not What You Think | Frankly 147

In this week's Frankly, Nate explores a pattern of thinking that permeates so many of our conversations: we often decide what we think before we've fully heard what's being said. Using the metaphor of a chessboard, he invites listeners to examine how we process information through a series of expanding perspectives. At the closest range, we instinctively assess people and ideas through lenses of threat, familiarity, and belonging. Soon after, conversations become filtered through ideologies, tribes, and cultural labels. That makes it harder to separate the argument itself from the person or source presenting it. From renewable energy to geopolitical conflicts, Nate presents real-world examples of how these deeply human shortcuts can limit our ability to learn from one another and shape the trajectory of our civilization itself. As the camera continues to pull back, a larger picture emerges. Beyond personalities and factions lie the structural forces shaping our world: energy, economics, and the biophysical realities that underpin civilization. The view widens again to include the living Earth itself, along with the possibility of a different future beyond the trajectory of our current social and economic game. Nate argues that the work of our time is learning to hold those instinctive ways of thinking alongside broader systems perspectives, so we can see the whole board without feeling pushed across it. Are our strongest convictions helping us understand the world, or narrowing what we're able to see? How does the scale of our perspective shape the futures we believe are reachable? And if a more resilient future is possible, what kinds of thinking will help us find a path toward it? (Recorded June 16th, 2026) Show Notes and More [https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/147-how-to-play-5d-chess] Watch this video episode on YouTube [https://youtu.be/cPctKcmnTvQ] Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. [https://youtu.be/-xr9rIQxwj4?feature=shared] --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future [https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/support] Join our Substack newsletter [https://natehagens.substack.com/] Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners [https://www.hylo.com/groups/the-great-simplification/join/i9jLqPmbGI]

No More Dystopian Stories: How to See a Future Worth Living In with Rob Hopkins

Self-fulfilling prophecies; manifestations; the Oedipus Effect: Humanity has long had an intuition that the stories we tell ourselves the most are often the stories we make come true. Science has found more and more evidence to back this up, through both historical cultural analysis as well as unexpected neurological connections in our brains. If we fully accept this, then what sort of future are we telling with our current cultural narratives, and is there still time to write a new one? In this episode, Nate welcomes Rob Hopkins, co-founder of the Transition Network and author of "How to Fall in Love with the Future," for an exploration of what tips people over the edge and into action to build more livable futures, and what role imagination plays in cultural motivation and agency. Rob explains the neuroscience behind envisioning the future, explaining the link between memory and imagination, and how chronic stress and cortisol can shrink our capacity to picture the future. Drawing on research showing that creativity and imagination scores have been declining for decades, he argues that our collective inability to vividly picture a better future may be the deepest barrier to building one. Throughout the conversation, Rob and Nate wrestle with a central tension: how to be honest about the scale of the predicament while still cultivating the kind of longing that moves people to act, and what role grief, limits, and slowing down might play in that process. In a culture that puts many of us in constant states of anxiety and stress, what happens to our ability to imagine and dream of the future? What would it take for more of us to feel, not just intellectually understand, that a lower-energy, more localized future could also be a more beautiful one, if only we plant the seeds for it to grow? And if the tools for building more local, resilient futures already exist, but the first step is to create a sense of longing for them, then what gap does that open up in each of our communities, today, to start putting these ideas into action? (Conversation recorded on April 21st, 2026) About Rob Hopkins: Rob Hopkins is the co-founder of Transition Network and of Transition Town Totnes, and author of several books including "The Transition Handbook" and most recently, "How to Fall in Love with the Future: A Time Traveller's Guide to Changing the World." He is an Ashoka Fellow, has spoken at TED Global and at several TEDx events, and appeared in the 2015 French film phenomenon "Demain." He holds a PhD from the University of Plymouth as well as 2 Honoris Causas, and hosted 100 episodes of his podcast "From What If to What Next." In November 2022 he was made an Honorary Citizen of Liège in Belgium. His collaborative music project with artist Mr Kit, "Field Recordings from the Future" is now available, and is being developed as a live show which will tour in 2026. His website is robhopkins.net [http://robhopkins.net]. Show Notes and More [https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/224-rob-hopkins] Watch this video episode on YouTube [https://youtu.be/vJMGAZ0wlIs] Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. [https://youtu.be/-xr9rIQxwj4?feature=shared] --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future [https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/support] Join our Substack newsletter [https://natehagens.substack.com/] Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners [https://www.hylo.com/groups/the-great-simplification/join/i9jLqPmbGI]

The Ultimate Alternative: Are You Okay With Nuclear Warfare? | Frankly 146

This week's Frankly is another in Nate's recurring series Uncomfortable Questions for Unsettled Times, in which he poses questions about our shared future. Today, he uses headlines regarding a potential ceasefire deal between the U.S. and Iran to confront a subject that has re-entered public discourse with a quiet but startling force: nuclear warfare. Through a wide-boundary lens, Nate outlines how the renewed discussion of nuclear force raises questions that extend far beyond the current conflict, including important (and uncomfortable) questions about nuclear proliferation, human psychology, and the erosion of long-standing taboos. He considers the possibility that many of today's geopolitical tensions are symptoms of deeper shifts underway in the global balance of power, and asks what happens when societies begin revisiting assumptions that once seemed settled. While renewed public discussion around nuclear weapons provides the immediate context, this episode is ultimately less about any single weapon or conflict, and more about the forces shaping human decision-making during periods of uncertainty and transition. Why do societies tend to realize the importance of a norm only when it is being broken? Are today's conflicts fundamentally about ideology and security, or are they about power, resources, and influence in a changing world? And what happens when established assumptions about global leadership, cooperation, and stability are put to the test? (Recorded June 15th, 2026) Show Notes and More [https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/146-uncomfortable-questions-for-unsettled-times-part-4] Watch this video episode on YouTube Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. [https://youtu.be/-xr9rIQxwj4?feature=shared] --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future [https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/support] Join our Substack newsletter [https://natehagens.substack.com/] Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners [https://www.hylo.com/groups/the-great-simplification/join/i9jLqPmbGI]

The U.S. Can't Back Down: The Strait of Hormuz Closure Is Messier Than You Think with Michael Every

This episode was recorded Tuesday, June 9th, before the current 'deal' was floated. Given world events, we decided to post this episode immediately as a special release, and deal or not, this conversation is an excellent overview of the issues and stakes of this evolving situation. In a media environment constantly contradicting itself, with every side proclaiming the advantage for themselves, the reality of what's happening in the Middle East gets lost amidst the day-to-day headlines. But for analysts who have been monitoring the underlying trends of the geopolitical gameboard for years, the direction is clear: the conflict over the Strait of Hormuz will likely not fully resolve within the next few months. If we truly accept the consequences of this, how will our global economy – built on interconnected supply chains and cheap energy – adapt to a geopolitical order fracturing before our eyes? In this episode, Nate is joined by Michael Every, Global Strategist at Rabobank, for an unflinching analysis of the Hormuz crisis and the fundamental principles pointing toward the Strait's closure for several more months. Michael walks through multiple scenarios – a TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out), NATO military action, Chinese intervention behind the scenes – and explains why none of them offer an easy exit. The conversation expands to explore what this crisis means for the future of global energy trade, the emergence of rival production blocs, the collapse of demand-side macroeconomics, and the surprising potential for a more equitable world to emerge from the chaos. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or mostly closed into September, which countries hit their breaking point first, and will the order in which they break fundamentally change the balance of geopolitical power? How does everyday life change when price signals stop working and access is defined by availability rather than cost? And if this crisis truly accelerates the fracturing of our hyper-connected, globalized world into polarized blocs of energy and production, how might the disruption, for better or worse, shake up nearly a century of the macroeconomic theory that has shaped every part of our lives? (Conversation recorded on June 9th, 2026) About Michael Every: Michael Every is a Global Strategist at Rabobank with over two decades of experience. He analyzes major financial developments and contributes to the bank's various economic research publications. Before Rabobank, he was a Director at Silk Road Associates in Bangkok, Senior Economist and Fixed Income Strategist at the Royal Bank of Canada in both London and Sydney, and an Economist for Dun & Bradstreet in London. Show Notes and More [https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/223-michael-every] Watch this video episode on YouTube [https://youtu.be/igg-Ykv8xKw] Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. [https://youtu.be/-xr9rIQxwj4?feature=shared] --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future [https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/support] Join our Substack newsletter [https://natehagens.substack.com/] Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners [https://www.hylo.com/groups/the-great-simplification/join/i9jLqPmbGI]