From 'Baker Briefing': Did Trump’s Tariffs Work? What the Economic Data Shows

14: The Future of Social Security

The annual Social Security Trust Fund report, published June 9, 2026, presents a troubling outlook for the future. If no action is taken, the trust fund will be depleted, requiring a 22% reduction in scheduled retirement benefits beginning in 2032. In this episode of “The Two-Handed Economist [https://www.bakerinstitute.org/two-handed-economist],” John W. Diamond [https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/john-w-diamond] discusses the history of Social Security, previous reforms to the system, and the need for Congress to act before those reductions take effect. Looking back at the last major reform during the Reagan administration, Diamond outlines possible solutions and compares them with the measures that helped address the program’s financial challenges at that time. Special guest Bill King [https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/bill-king] joins Diamond to discuss the long-term need for reform in light of a shrinking workforce and a growing retirement-age population. They examine a demographic challenge that is reshaping the program’s finances and discuss potential policy approaches to help ensure the long-term sustainability of Social Security. This conversation was recorded on June 18, 2026. Featured guest: * Bill King, Fellow in Public Finance [https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/bill-king] Mentioned in this episode: * The 2026 OASDI Trustees Report [https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2026/trTOC.html] Follow John Diamond on X (@jw_diamond [https://x.com/jw_diamond]) and LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-diamond-77223130/].   You can follow @BakerInstitute on X [https://twitter.com/BakerInstitute], Instagram [http://instagram.com/bakerinstitute], LinkedIn [http://www.linkedin.com/company/james-a--baker-iii-institute-for-public-policy---rice-university], and YouTube [http://www.youtube.com/user/bakerinstitute]. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org [http://bakerinstitute.org].

From 'Baker Briefing:' How the Iran War Is Hitting Americans at Home

As conflict with Iran intensifies, economic consequences are beginning to extend beyond the battlefield, from rising energy prices to growing concerns about inflation and household costs. Ambassador David M. Satterfield [https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/david-m-satterfield] and John W. Diamond [https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/john-w-diamond], director of the Baker Institute Center for Tax and Budget Policy [https://www.bakerinstitute.org/center/center-tax-and-budget-policy], discuss what a prolonged conflict could mean for the U.S. economy — and why everyday Americans may soon feel the effects.   This conversation was recorded on May 20, 2026.   Listen and subscribe to “Baker Briefing” on Apple [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/baker-briefing/id1668671313], Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/1HLgLgaZDq5zmssZv2BVXk?si=a24d2a633b694dbc&nd=1&dlsi=73ce928119c34155], https://afripods.africa/podcast/781425b6-9ead-455e-a70d-dc1d5ec4f48bor your preferred podcast platform.   You can follow @BakerInstitute on X [https://twitter.com/BakerInstitute], Instagram [http://instagram.com/bakerinstitute], LinkedIn [http://www.linkedin.com/company/james-a--baker-iii-institute-for-public-policy---rice-university], and YouTube [http://www.youtube.com/user/bakerinstitute]. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org [http://bakerinstitute.org].

From 'Baker Briefing:' Tax Day Edition — Debt, Defense, and Economic Uncertainty

It’s Tax Day, and this episode steps back from the headlines to look at the forces shaping the U.S. fiscal and economic outlook. From the latest federal budget proposals and rising defense costs to updated projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Treasury Department on deficits and debt, the fiscal picture is facing growing pressure.   Ambassador David M. Satterfield [https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/david-m-satterfield] and John W. Diamond [https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/john-w-diamond] examine how the costs of ongoing and potential conflicts factor into an already strained budget environment, alongside broader economic crosscurrents, including private equity stress, immigration trends, tariffs, fiscal stimulus, and the rapid rise of artificial intelligence.   With geopolitical tensions adding uncertainty, this episode asks: How much stability remains in the system?   This conversation was recorded on April 15, 2026.   Listen and subscribe to “Baker Briefing” on Apple [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/baker-briefing/id1668671313], Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/1HLgLgaZDq5zmssZv2BVXk?si=a24d2a633b694dbc&nd=1&dlsi=73ce928119c34155], https://afripods.africa/podcast/781425b6-9ead-455e-a70d-dc1d5ec4f48bor your preferred podcast platform.   You can follow @BakerInstitute on X [https://twitter.com/BakerInstitute], Instagram [http://instagram.com/bakerinstitute], LinkedIn [http://www.linkedin.com/company/james-a--baker-iii-institute-for-public-policy---rice-university], and YouTube [http://www.youtube.com/user/bakerinstitute]. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org [http://bakerinstitute.org].

13: The Federal Budget’s March Madness

If the Federal Government was scaled down to a household budget, it would make $52,000 a year and be spending $73,000 – a surplus of $21,000 that would quickly put the average American in debt. In this episode of “The Two-Handed Economist [https://www.bakerinstitute.org/two-handed-economist],” John Diamond [https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/john-w-diamond] dives into the current financial state of the Federal Government and its connection to the silent but approaching private credit troubles looming in the background. By taking the trillion dollar issue of the Federal Government and moving it into a scalable point of reference, Diamond explains the long-term accountability issues that are only going to worsen in our budget.  On the private credit side, he sheds light onto this opaque, untested market and warns its vulnerability could spill over to the public market and Capitol Hill, pressuring lawmakers to step in and provide relief in their already inflexible financial state.  This conversation was recorded on Mar. 24, 2026. Follow John Diamond [https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/john-w-diamond] on X (@jw_diamond [https://x.com/jw_diamond]) and LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-diamond-77223130/]. You can follow @BakerInstitute on X [https://twitter.com/BakerInstitute], Instagram [http://instagram.com/bakerinstitute], LinkedIn [http://www.linkedin.com/company/james-a--baker-iii-institute-for-public-policy---rice-university], and YouTube [http://www.youtube.com/user/bakerinstitute]. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org [http://bakerinstitute.org].

From 'Baker Briefing': Supreme Court Tariff Decision: What Comes Next for Trade, Markets, and Manufacturing

What happens to the economy when the U.S. Supreme Court overturns a major Trump administration tariff strategy? On Feb. 20, 2026, the Court struck down sweeping tariffs imposed under emergency authority, forcing a rapid policy shift and raising new questions about trade, markets, and the federal budget. In this episode of “Baker Briefing,” Ambassador David M. Satterfield is joined by John W. Diamond, director of the Baker Institute Center for Tax and Budget Policy, to break down the economic impact of the ruling. They discuss whether tariffs delivered on promises to boost manufacturing and generate revenue, how their removal could affect deficits and inflation, and why uncertainty — more than any single policy — may shape the outlook for businesses and global markets. The conversation also examines what tariff tools remain available to the administration and what comes next for U.S. trade policy. This conversation was recorded on Feb. 23, 2026.  Featured: * Ambassador David M. Satterfield [https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/david-m-satterfield] * John W. Diamond, Ph.D. [https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/john-w-diamond] Mentioned in this episode: * Learning Resources, Inc., et al. v. Trump, President of the United States, et al. [https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/24-1287_4gcj.pdf], U.S. Supreme Court, announced February 20, 2026. This conversation was recorded on Feb. 23, 2026. You can follow @BakerInstitute on X [https://twitter.com/BakerInstitute], Instagram [http://instagram.com/bakerinstitute], LinkedIn [http://www.linkedin.com/company/james-a--baker-iii-institute-for-public-policy---rice-university], and YouTube [http://www.youtube.com/user/bakerinstitute]. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org [http://bakerinstitute.org/].