AERO Stock: Aeroméxico Posted Record Revenue — and Still Lost $58 Million

AERO Stock: Aeroméxico Posted Record Revenue — and Still Lost $58 Million

Grupo Aeroméxico (AERO) Q2 2026 — Aeroméxico posted a record second-quarter revenue of $1.479B (+12.6%) on capacity up just 1.9% — and still swung to a $58M net loss, as jet fuel expense jumped 79.9% to $494M. The stock fell 8.5% to $15.30, now 25% below its November IPO price. Aeroméxico's board policy permits hedging 40-60% of its jet fuel. It has hedged ZERO for six straight years — and this was the quarter fuel doubled. But the fuel shock isn't the real story: Delta ate the same 75% fuel spike and still earned $1.4B pre-tax. Aeroméxico's $68M of operating income didn't cover HALF of its $136M interest bill. Fuel was the trigger; the post-Chapter-11 balance sheet was the loaded gun. Meanwhile it trades at ~3.4x EV/EBITDAR vs 5.6-6.6x for Copa and Volaris, with an Eleventh Circuit ruling on the Delta joint venture due any day and a Volaris-Viva merger that would control ~69% of Mexican domestic traffic. Our base case: $21.50. THE CALL: SPECULATIVE BUY (3/5, A LEVERED BET ON JET FUEL) — base-case value ~$21.50 vs ~$15.30 today. What to watch: the price of jet fuel, the Eleventh Circuit ruling on the Delta joint venture, and whether management finally announces a fuel hedging program Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

DAL Stock: Delta Posted Record Revenue and Beat — So Why Did It Fall?

Delta Air Lines (DAL) Q2 2026 — Delta posted record adjusted revenue of $17.7B (+14%) and beat with adjusted EPS of $1.56 — but EPS fell 26% YoY on the highest quarterly fuel bill in its history, it affirmed rather than raised full-year guidance, and the stock slipped ~2% after a 76% run to record highs. Delta is no longer a commodity airline — premium cabins now out-earn the main cabin, the American Express deal pays $2.4B a quarter, and relentless deleveraging earned an investment-grade rating from all three agencies (plus a 15% dividend hike). But after a 76% run to a record $95.68, it trades ~13-14x, and our owner-earnings DCF lands ~$90 vs the ~$87 price. A quality-airline-at-a-fair-price HOLD. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, QUALITY AIRLINE, FAIRLY VALUED) — base-case value ~$90 vs ~$87 today. KEY METRICS: - June qtr 2026: adjusted revenue $17.7B (+14%, a record; GAAP $19.76B); adjusted EPS $1.56 (beat ~$1.49, but -26% YoY); GAAP EPS $2.44 - Adjusted operating margin 8.8% (down from 13.3%) — the decline was entirely a fuel-cost problem - Fuel $3.93/gallon (+75%, highest quarterly fuel expense in company history); guided to ~$3.15 next quarter (easing) - Premium-cabin revenue +17% (now exceeds main cabin); Amex remuneration $2.4B (+16%, 7th straight double-digit quarter); diverse revenue 61% of total - Unit revenue (TRASM) +12% on just +1% capacity; free cash flow $209M in Q2, $1.4B H1; FY26 FCF target $3-4B - Adjusted net debt down ~17% YoY (~$3B); investment grade at all three agencies; dividend raised 15%; ROIC 10.9% - Guidance: FY26 adjusted EPS $6.50-7.50 AFFIRMED (not raised); Q3 adjusted EPS $2.00-2.50 (a return to YoY growth) - Valuation: stock ~$87 (down ~2% on the print), up 76% in a year, record $95.68 on July 2; ~13-14x forward P/E; market cap ~$58B - Owner-earnings DCF (base ~$3.8B FCF, +2%/+5%, 9-11%): ~$90 fair value vs ~$87 price — essentially in line; the key risk is cyclicality What to watch: the jet-fuel price (the swing factor), unit-revenue (TRASM) trends, and the free-cash-flow generation that funds debt paydown and the dividend Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

NRIX Stock: Nurix Tripled After a $700M Roche Deal — Is the Good News Already Priced In?

Nurix Therapeutics (NRIX) Q2 FY2026 — Nurix Therapeutics reported a fiscal Q2 net loss of $(0.81) per share on ~$9M of collaboration revenue — but the story is the June Roche partnership on its BTK degrader bexobrutideg ($700M upfront, up to $2.3B), which lifts pro-forma cash to ~$1.14B and has driven the stock ~200% off its lows to near $25. Nurix is a clinical-stage protein-degradation biotech with no product revenue — so we value it on cash + deals + pipeline, not earnings. After the transformational Roche deal it has a ~$1.14B pro-forma cash fortress (covering ~45% of its market cap), a 50/50 US stake in a validated BTK degrader, and wholly-owned pipeline optionality. But after a triple to 52-week highs, our sum-of-the-parts lands ~$26 vs the ~$25 price — de-risked, but a speculative HOLD. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, DE-RISKED, SPECULATIVE) — base-case value ~$26 vs ~$25 today. KEY METRICS: - Q2 FY26: collaboration revenue ~$9M; net loss ~$(89.5)M, or $(0.81)/share; R&D ~$88M; burn ~$90M/quarter - Cash $443.5M at quarter-end (pre-Roche); pro-forma ~$1.14B including the $700M Roche upfront (lands next quarter); no debt - Roche deal (June 2026) on bexobrutideg (BTK degrader): $700M upfront, up to $2.3B total, 50/50 US co-develop & profit split, tiered ex-US royalties - Pipeline: bexobrutideg (Roche-partnered, pivotal Phase 2 + Phase 3); NX-1607 (wholly-owned oral CBL-B IO) + a second wholly-owned degrader - June EHA data: response rates in the 80s-low-90s% in relapsed CLL/SLL with encouraging durability — the validation that drew Roche - Additional partners: Sanofi (STAT6, milestone this quarter), Gilead (IRAK-4, Phase 1), Pfizer (degrader-ADCs) - Market cap ~$2.5B; enterprise value ~$1.35B pro-forma; stock ~$25, up ~200% off the lows, near 52-week high ($25.08) - Analysts: ~15/16 Buy, average target low-$30s (~25-30% upside), high $45, low $25 - Sum-of-the-parts (cash + risk-adjusted deal + pipeline): base ~$26 vs ~$25 price — roughly fair; the risk is binary clinical-trial outcomes What to watch: the bexobrutideg pivotal (Phase 3) trial data, the two wholly-owned pipeline programs (NX-1607, second degrader), and any new pharma milestones Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

WDFC Stock: WD-40 Crushed Earnings and Popped 15% — But Is a Cult Brand Worth 40x?

WD-40 Company (WDFC) Q3 FY2026 — WD-40 grew fiscal Q3 sales 24% to $195M, delivered adjusted EPS of $2.33 (GAAP $2.24) that crushed the ~$1.58 estimate, raised full-year guidance and added a $100M buyback — sending the stock ~15% higher to a fresh all-time high near $276. WD-40 is a genuinely wide-moat cult brand — ~85% awareness, 56%+ gross margins, real pricing power, and a global runway — that just posted a clean beat-and-raise. There's nothing wrong with the business. The problem is the price: after a ~15% pop to ~$276 it trades at ~40-44x earnings for a 6-9% grower, and our owner-earnings DCF lands near $160. So this is a quality-at-too-rich-a-price HOLD. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, PRICED FOR PERFECTION) — base-case value ~$160 vs ~$276 today. KEY METRICS: - Q3 FY26: net sales $195.1M (+24%, +20% constant currency); adjusted EPS $2.33 (+51%), GAAP EPS $2.24 — both crushed ~$1.58 est - Clean beat (real sales + operating leverage, not a one-timer); the sole adjustment REDUCED GAAP EPS - By region: Americas $101M (+29%), EIMEA $67M (+17%), Asia-Pacific $27M (+24%) - Maintenance products 97% of sales (+26%); gross margin 56.6%; operating margin ~20.7% - FY26 guidance RAISED: constant-currency sales +6-9%, adjusted EPS ~$6.05-6.35 (mid $6.20); +$100M buyback; dividend ~$4.08/yr - Balance sheet: $59M cash, ~$100M debt; ~13.5M shares; low capex cash machine - Valuation: stock jumped ~15% to ~$276 (new high) vs the $239 pre-print close; ~40x trailing, ~44x forward — a luxury multiple - Owner-earnings DCF (base ~$80M FCF, +4%/+6%, 8-10%): ~$160 fair value vs ~$276 price — a large premium, priced for perfection - Note: some sales were pull-forward buying ahead of price increases; gross-margin guide was trimmed slightly on input costs What to watch: the constant-currency sales growth rate, the gross margin under input-cost pressure, and above all the valuation — wait for a better entry Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

SMPL Stock: Simply Good Foods Beat Earnings but Sales Fell — Cheap Turnaround or Value Trap?

Simply Good Foods (SMPL) Q3 FY2026 — Simply Good Foods (Quest, Atkins, OWYN) beat with adjusted EPS of $0.42 vs $0.35, but net sales fell 6% to $357M, an $82M impairment drove a GAAP loss of $(0.58), Atkins collapsed 24.6%, and full-year guidance implies a down year. Simply Good Foods has fallen ~62% from ~$34 to ~$13. It's cheap (~6x EV/EBITDA), cash-generative, and squarely in the protein-snacking megatrend with founder Joe Scalzo back as CEO — but sales and margins are falling, Atkins is collapsing, OWYN is stalling, and GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are a real overhang. Our DCF lands ~$12 vs the ~$13 price, so this is a show-me HOLD. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, SHOW-ME TURNAROUND) — base-case value ~$12 vs ~$13 today. KEY METRICS: - Q3 FY26: net sales $357M (-6.3%); adjusted EPS $0.42 (beat $0.35, but -18% YoY); GAAP EPS $(0.58) on an $82M impairment - Brands: Quest $230.3M (+1.1%), Atkins $84.6M (-24.6% collapsing), OWYN $34.8M (+3.6% net sales but takeaway -1.3%) - Gross margin 32.5% (-390 bps); adjusted EBITDA $57.2M (-22.5%, 16% margin); marketing spend up ~16% - Balance sheet: $124M cash vs $400M term debt (net debt $276M, 1.2x EBITDA); YTD FCF ~$110M; no dividend; $213M buybacks YTD - FY26 guidance: net sales ~$1.35B (-6% to -7%), adjusted EBITDA ~$220-225M (-19% to -21%) — a down year; Q4 softer - Founder Joe Scalzo returned as CEO Jan 2026 — the turnaround is one quarter old with no proof yet - Valuation ~$13 (down ~62% from ~$34), ~6x EV/EBITDA, ~12x P/FCF — cheap only if the decline bottoms - Owner-earnings DCF (base ~$110M FCF, -4%/+1%, 9-11%): ~$12 fair value vs ~$13 price — essentially fair, wide range - Central debate: GLP-1 weight-loss drugs — demand destruction for snacks vs. GLP-1 users needing more protein What to watch: the OWYN retail takeaway trend, Quest's velocity, and real-world evidence on how GLP-1 is affecting protein snacking Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.