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NATO leaders left Turkiye on Wednesday after reaffirming their commitment to collective defense, but uncertainty now hangs over the alliance following US President Donald Trump's disruptive remarks. 北约各国领导人周三离开土耳其,此前他们重申了集体防御承诺,但美国总统唐纳德·特朗普一番极具分裂性的言论,让整个联盟前景蒙上一层不确定性。 Divisions over defense spending and the security commitments of the United States have raised questions about the cohesion of the alliance and even whether leaders would convene another summit next year. 各国在防务开支、美国安全保障义务两方面产生分歧,外界开始质疑北约内部凝聚力,甚至不确定明年能否如期举办下一届峰会。 Although the 32-member bloc sought to project unity through its "ironclad commitment" to the collective defense principle, the summit highlighted increasingly divergent priorities between Washington and its European allies. 这个拥有32个成员国的同盟试图借对集体防御原则“牢不可破的承诺”对外塑造团结形象,但本次峰会清晰暴露,美国与欧洲盟友的核心诉求分歧正不断扩大。 Trump's repeated criticism of NATO, renewed demands for Europe to shoulder more of the budgetary burden, and public rebukes of individual allies reinforced concern that the trans-Atlantic relationship is becoming more transactional than strategic. 特朗普多次公开抨击北约,再度要求欧洲承担更多防务经费压力,还当众点名批评部分盟国,这加深了外界的担忧:跨大西洋关系正在从战略伙伴关系,彻底偏向纯粹的利益交易关系。 Speaking in Ankara before joining alliance leaders, Trump made clear that his frustrations with NATO had not eased. 在赶赴北约领导人集体会谈前,特朗普于安卡拉发表讲话,直言自己对北约的不满丝毫没有缓解。 "Despite the fact that I'm very upset with NATO, that we pay far, far too much, billions and billions of dollars too much — because it's unfair — we protect them, but they're not there for us," he said. 他表示:“我对北约非常不满,我们付出的代价实在过高,白白多掏了数十亿美元,这非常不公平。我们为他们提供安全庇护,可他们却不愿对等付出。” Trump also renewed his call for US control of Greenland, an autonomous territory of NATO member Denmark, while criticizing Spain over defense spending and its position on the Iran war, even threatening to cut off all trade with Madrid. 特朗普再度提出由美国接管格陵兰岛(北约成员国丹麦的自治领地),同时指责西班牙防务投入不足、在伊朗冲突上立场与美国相悖,甚至威胁断绝与马德里的全部贸易。 The remarks contrasted sharply with efforts by NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and European leaders to present a united front, underscoring growing disagreements over burden-sharing, strategic priorities and the future balance of responsibilities within the alliance. 这番表态和北约秘书长马克·吕特、欧洲各国领导人力求展现统一战线的努力形成强烈反差,凸显各方在防务分摊、战略重心、联盟权责分配等问题上分歧持续加剧。 Domestic pressures 国内层面的压力 Tom Harper, a lecturer in international relations at the University of East London, said the dispute over defense spending has become increasingly tied to domestic political and economic pressures. 东伦敦大学国际关系讲师汤姆·哈珀表示,这场防务开支争端,如今和各国国内政治、经济压力深度绑定。 European governments face mounting political risks if higher military spending comes at the cost of public services, Harper said. 哈珀称,欧洲各国如果以削减公共服务为代价增加军费,将面临巨大的国内政治风险。 "If increased defense spending coincides with cuts to social services and education, this will likely impose domestic costs on European governments, which they may be unwilling to pay, especially should they be facing election campaigns," he said. 他说:“倘若增加国防开支就要削减社保、教育投入,各国政府都不愿承担这样的国内代价,尤其是恰逢大选周期时。” "You could say it's an example of the age-old debate over guns or butter." “这就是经典的‘大炮与黄油’取舍难题。” Harper also argued that the economic benefits of increased military spending could flow disproportionately to the US. 哈珀还提出,军费扩容带来的经济红利,绝大部分会流向美国。 "It is quite likely that American companies would be the primary beneficiaries of increased spending, which is one of the reasons why Washington has been keen for NATO members to increase their defense expenditure," he said. 他表示:“美国企业大概率会成为军费上涨的主要受益者,这也是华盛顿极力推动北约各国提高防务开支的原因之一。” Matthew Arnold, a policy analyst and visiting fellow at the London School of Economics and Political Science, questioned whether NATO members could realistically sustain significantly higher defense spending. 伦敦政治经济学院政策分析师、访问学者马修·阿诺德质疑,北约各国是否有能力长期维持大幅上涨的军费。 "The fiscal concerns are serious," he said, warning that sustained increases in military expenditure could worsen debt burdens and social tensions, while much of the increased procurement would initially benefit large defense contractors, many of them based in the US. 他称:“各国财政隐患十分严峻。持续增加军费会加重债务压力、激化社会矛盾,而且新增军备采购订单,初期大多流入美国大型军工企业。” Challenge to cohesion 联盟凝聚力遭遇挑战 Lawrence Loh, director of the Center for Governance and Sustainability at the National University of Singapore Business School, said NATO now faces a broader challenge to its cohesion. 新加坡国立大学商学院治理与可持续发展中心主任Lawrence Loh表示,北约整体凝聚力正遭遇更深层次的考验。 "The NATO summit comes at a critical time when the alliance faces an emerging legitimacy crisis," Loh said. "With pressure from Trump, NATO risks bowing to this strongman's demands for increased defense spending," he said. "It is evolving into a transaction grouping of countries that weigh their respective interests with just one member — the US." 他表示:“本届北约峰会恰逢联盟合法性危机显现的关键节点。在特朗普的施压下,北约被迫迎合这位强硬领导人提高军费的要求,联盟逐渐沦为纯粹的利益交换集团,各国凡事只权衡对美单方利弊。” The alliance is simultaneously grappling with economic slowdown, political fragmentation and social integration challenges across Europe, while also facing criticism over its limited effectiveness in responding to conflicts in the Middle East, he added. 他补充道,北约同时要应对欧洲多国经济低迷、政治分裂、社会融合难题,还因应对中东冲突收效有限饱受诟病。 "All in all, NATO is now caught between a rock — the US — and a hard place, which is all the region-based anguishes in Europe," he said. 他说:“总而言之,北约如今进退两难:一边是步步紧逼的美国,另一边是欧洲层出不穷的各类地区矛盾。” Several analysts believe Trump's approach could ultimately accelerate Europe's pursuit of greater strategic autonomy. 多名分析人士认为,特朗普的行事风格,最终会倒逼欧洲加速推进战略自主。 Angel Saz-Carranza, director of the EsadeGeo Center for Global Economy and Geopolitics in Spain, said NATO will likely evolve over the next decade. 西班牙ESADE全球经济与地缘政治中心主任Angel Saz-Carranza表示,未来十年北约格局将会迎来演变。 "Reliance on the US will diminish as European Union capabilities increase, which will gradually rebalance the trans-Atlantic relationship," he said. 他说:“随着欧盟自身防务实力提升,欧洲对美国的依赖会逐步降低,跨大西洋力量平衡将重新调整。” Pedro Brinca, an associate professor of macroeconomics at Nova School of Business and Economics in Portugal, also expects the alliance to become increasingly European in character. 葡萄牙诺瓦商学院宏观经济学副教授佩德罗·布林卡也预判,北约的欧洲属性会持续增强。 However, he cautioned that Europe's ability to shoulder greater responsibility will depend not only on spending more but also on spending more efficiently. Fragmented national procurement would deliver less security than coordinated European investment, he added. 但他同时提醒,欧洲想要承担更多安全责任,不能只单纯增加军费,更要提升资金使用效率。各国分散独立采购军备,所能获得的安全收益,远不如欧洲协同统一投入。 Although NATO leaders departed Ankara reiterating their commitment to collective defense, the summit illustrated that the alliance's greatest challenge may no longer be external threats alone, but maintaining political trust among its own members. 尽管北约各国领导人离开安卡拉时再度重申集体防御义务,但本次峰会充分说明,联盟最大的难题早已不只是外部威胁,维系成员国之间的政治互信才是核心。 The final declaration said the leaders "look forward to our next meeting", but without committing to a date. 峰会最终宣言仅写明各国领导人“期待下一次会晤”,并未敲定具体举办时间。 divergence分歧、立场背离 sow埋下、滋生(矛盾、裂痕) discord不和、分歧、内部裂痕 NATO北大西洋公约组织,简称北约 summit(国际)峰会
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