What Data Says About Oil Spike, Vix Spike, and AI

Narratives, AI, and Durable Investment Bets

AI narrative momentum, durable value, and why Zoom and Roblox stand out | Around the Desk Ep. 85 Sean Emory, founder and CIO of Avory & Co., on the "AI on, AI off" market: where durable value actually accrues, why models may commoditize as open source catches up, and why ecosystem and context end up mattering more than the model itself. Plus a look at Zoom (Avory's top holding) for its cash, Anthropic stake, and communication-context data, and Roblox for consumer engagement and AI-enabled creation. He expects public AI listings to force scrutiny on profitability, margins, and capital intensity, and makes the case for patience and businesses that don't require perfect assumptions. Chapters 00:00 Podcast intro 00:33 Momentum and narratives 01:08 AI trade dominates 02:31 Where value accrues 03:16 Open source catching up 05:10 Models commoditize over time 06:28 Multi-model future 07:47 Infrastructure crowding risks 09:15 Energy bottlenecks 10:06 Durable investing mindset 10:35 Zoom as durable play 13:13 Roblox and creation flywheel 14:02 Macro uncertainty cycles 16:00 Public AI reality check 17:33 Staying patient and closing More from Avory & Co. www.avory.xyz  Informational only. Not personal investment advice. Avory & Co. and Sean Emory may hold positions in securities discussed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

What Data Says About Oil Spike, Vix Spike, and AI

In this episode of Around the Desk, Sean Emory, Founder & CIO of Avory & Co., walks through several market signals that stood out this week. Markets are seeing multiple spikes simultaneously: • Oil prices jumping sharply • Volatility surging • Corporate insider buying rising in financials • Massive AI infrastructure spending from hyperscalers Rather than reacting to headlines, we step back and ask the more important question: what do these signals historically mean for markets? 00:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMbfhgdRBIE] Market Signals Overview 01:51 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMbfhgdRBIE&t=111s] Disclaimer and Setup 02:10 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMbfhgdRBIE&t=130s] Oil Spike Playbook 03:34 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMbfhgdRBIE&t=214s] VIX Volatility Spike 04:32 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMbfhgdRBIE&t=272s] Software and AI Reset 06:24 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMbfhgdRBIE&t=384s] Consumer Liquidity Boost 07:36 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMbfhgdRBIE&t=456s] Financial Insider Buying 08:26 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMbfhgdRBIE&t=506s] Oil Impact and Scenarios 10:37 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMbfhgdRBIE&t=637s] Election Incentives 11:39 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMbfhgdRBIE&t=699s] AI Adoption Trends 15:33 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMbfhgdRBIE&t=933s] CapEx Winners and Apple 16:57 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMbfhgdRBIE&t=1017s] AI Market Structure and Ads 21:28 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMbfhgdRBIE&t=1288s] Earnings Week Ahead 22:13 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMbfhgdRBIE&t=1333s] Wrap Up and Key Takeaways Hosted by Sean Emory Founder & Chief Investment Officer Avory & Co. Website www.avory.xyz Disclaimer This presentation is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All opinions expressed are as of the date of recording and are subject to change without notice. Any securities discussed may or may not remain in the portfolio. Please consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. © 2026 Avory & Co. All rights reserved.

What did we learn from NVIDIA and Software this Week?

AI vs SaaS: Seat + Consumption Can Coexist Salesforce, Workday, Nvidia, Zoom, Block | Around the Desk This week on Around the Desk, Sean Emory breaks down a pivotal week for AI and enterprise software. Are seat-based models being replaced? Or is AI expanding the value of platforms? Using earnings and data from Salesforce, Workday, Nvidia, Zoom, and Block, Sean argues AI is enhancing durable platforms, not eliminating them. The winners are likely multi-product ecosystems with compliance depth, proprietary data, and embedded workflows. Not point solutions. 00:00 Welcome and Disclaimer 00:43 AI vs SaaS Big Week 02:13 Platforms vs Point Solutions 03:46 Salesforce Seats + Agents 07:06 Jobs Data 10:08 Buybacks + Workday 12:07 Inflation + Breadth 14:17 Nvidia + Valuations 17:26 AI Adoption + Limits 19:03 Capitulation Setup 22:08 Portfolio Updates 26:19 Closing Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The views expressed are as of the recording date and may change. The host and affiliated entities may hold positions in the companies discussed. Investing involves risk, including potential loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. © 2026 Avory & Co. All rights reserved.

Are we closing in on a Software Bottom or No?

In this episode of Around the Desk, Sean Emory, Founder & CIO of Avory & Co., walks through the key market signals this week and asks a central question: Are we getting close to a bottom in software? Insiders are buying. Business formations are surging. Software job postings are rising. App creation is accelerating. Yet sentiment remains stretched. We break down what the data is actually saying.  00:00 Welcome + Disclosures  00:41 AI & Software Focus  01:20 Insider Buying Spike  02:50 Tariffs Update  05:25 Business Formation Surge  06:27 Travel & Dining Stable  06:58 Software Washout Signal  08:41 AI vs Jobs Data  10:05 App Creation Surge  11:08 Zoom + Car Wash Update  12:37 Big Earnings Week  13:50 Are We Near a Bottom?  AI is reshaping software. But the data suggests expansion, not contraction. Hosted by: Sean Emory : Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Avory & Co.  https://www.avory.xyz [https://www.avory.xyz] 📩 Questions: team@avoryco.com 🎙 Podcast: Around the Desk 📺 YouTube: @AvoryCo Disclaimer This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Opinions expressed are as of the recording date and are subject to change. We may hold positions in companies discussed. Investing involves risk, including potential loss of principal. Please conduct your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. © 2026 Avory & Co. All rights reserved.

The AI Scare Trade: Jensen Says Its Illogical - We Agree

In this episode of Around the Desk, Sean Emory, Founder & CIO of Avory & Co., breaks down the recent software selloff and the broader AI scare trade. Inflation is cooling. Jobs are stable. Earnings are holding up. Yet parts of software are trading as if AI is about to eliminate entire business models. Does that make sense? Chapters: 00:00 Welcome + Disclaimer 00:40 Software Selloff vs AI Boom 02:20 Inflation Cooling: CPI, Break-evens, Rates 03:55 Jobs & Wages: Stability vs AI Fears 07:00 Zillow: Growth in a Flat Market 08:10 Airbnb: Global Growth + AI Tailwinds 08:45 The AI Scare Trade 11:05 Bonds Calm, Stocks Volatile 12:10 If AI Wins: Model Layer + Zoom’s Anthropic Upside 15:50 What Flips the Narrative: CapEx, Valuations, Retention, Buybacks 19:05 Positioning: Earnings Up, Prices Down 20:55 Closing: AI Expands Software, Not Shrinks It We cover macro signals, earnings from Zillow and Airbnb, headline-driven AI panic across industries, why credit markets look far calmer than equities, and the asymmetric upside in model-layer winners. AI is transformative. But transformation does not automatically mean extinction. When narrative and fundamentals diverge, opportunity can emerge. — Hosted by: Sean Emory — Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Avory & Co. https://www.avory.xyz [https://www.avory.xyz] Questions: team@avoryco.com Podcast: Around the Desk YouTube: @AvoryCo — Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Opinions expressed are as of the recording date and are subject to change. We may hold positions in companies discussed. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Please conduct your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. © 2026 Avory & Co. All rights reserved.