Allspring's Bory: Bond investors should capture the Fed's 'uncertainty premium'

Allspring's Bory: Bond investors should capture the Fed's 'uncertainty premium'

George Bory, chief investment strategist for fixed income at Allspring Global Investments [https://allspringglobal.com], says the market is "overshooting" in expecting considerable rate hikes soon. He thinks the central bank will be patient, and that the Kevin Warsh regime got off to its intended start last week by giving less guidance and accepting more volatility as a result. He suggests that investors should look to capture the current "uncertainty premium" that has been created by a wide dispersion of opinion — with some major players expecting rate hikes while others are calling for renewed cuts — and that will boost intermediate-term yields at least until the rate picture becomes clearer. Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report [https://mcoscillator.com], says that the McClellan Oscillator — the indicator created by the family firm to measure market breadth — "is seeing dead nothing," hovering around the neutral level, suggesting that the market "is in pretty much of a doldrums." He expects to see a seasonal summer decline, especially in a midterm election year, but it's not happening yet, which is why McClellan says there's not likely to be much trend until late October. He sees "a boring market" for the rest of the year but expects 2027 to be strongly positive, barring mistakes from the Federal Reserve. Author Igor Pejic [https://igorpejic.net] discusses his new book, "Tech Money: A Guide to the New Game of Technology Investing [https://amazon.com/Tech-Money-Guide-Technology-Investing/dp/B0G3LQMT3Q/]," out today, noting the places where technology investing has changed and how different current times are from the last technology wave, the Internet boom, that drove the market into bubble times.

StockCharts' de Kempenaer; Don't jump in front of this 'freight train' of a market

Julius de Kempenaer, senior technical analyst at StockCharts [https://stockcharts.com], says the stock market right now is "technology against the world," and he expects that it will turn and correct, but he's not willing to put his portfolio on the line and move early, because it would put him in the path of a speeding "freight train." de Kempenaer says he can "hear what the bears are saying," and doesn't necessarily disagree with them, but he says he needs to see more signs of weakness -- like the market starting to favor defensive sectors even as it is rising -- to suggest that a downturn is near. Yalena Maleyev, senior economist at KPMG Economics – a member of the Outlook Survey Committee for the National Association for Business Economics – discusses the June 2026 NABE Outlook Survey [https://nabe.com], released today, which had the economists calling for lower and slower economic growth, higher inflation and a longer time before the Federal Reserve eases interest rates. The median expectation for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), the Fed's preferred inflation measure, rose to 3.6% for the fourth quarter. Despite those worrisome economic numbers, nearly two-thirds of the economists surveyed expect that the U.S. can forestall a recession until 2028 or later. In "The Week That Is," Vijay Marolia [https://vijaymarolia.com], chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital [https://regalpointcapital.com], discusses Kevin Warsh's debut as the chairman of the Federal Reserve, which included a hawkish stance, no dot plot or forecasting help, and a terse public statement. He also discusses the news that Charles Schwab Corp. is planning to enter prediction markets, which he says could speed up both public acceptance and regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets, and he gives his take on why the housing affordability problem is worse right now than it generally gets credit for. Plus, David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs [https://newconstructs.com], puts the State Street S&P Kensho Final Frontiers ETF in the Danger Zone, noting that while the fund gets a five-star rating from Morningstar, it is filled with stocks "that are losing money hand over fist, all going after a very trendy topic ... which is hard to quantify," a condition that he says reminds him of the Internet bubble days.

John Hancock's Miskin says IPO boom could be a sign of a bubbly market

Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management [https://jhinvestments.com], says that the current stock market has been driven to record highs on the back of strong earnings that have overpowered economic concerns, but he notes that the stock market bubble that inflated during the Internet boom of the late 1990s grew on the backs of companies with no real earnings. As a result, with IPOs like SpaceX dominating the headlines, Miskin is preaching caution, noting that these attention-grabbing stocks are coming public without profits. Miskin says that's a rising risk, but that inflation is less of a risk than it was just a few months ago, and he believes there may be pockets of downturn or slowdown, but that should push investors to diversify, rather than to overhaul a portfolio or back away from equities. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi [https://vettafi.com], looks at a free-cash flow factor fund that has a stellar track record and that will celebrate its third birthday next week for his ETF of the Week. The birthday is important because it makes the fund eligible for ratings that will signal its stellar performance even more strongly to investors. Ken Burdon, partner in the registered fund practice at Simpson, Thacher & Bartlett [https://stblaw.com], discusses a recent Supreme Court ruling [https://stblaw.com/about-us/publications/view/2026/06/12/u.s.-supreme-court-rules-that-there-is-no-implied-private-right-of-action-to-rescind-contracts-that-allegedly-violate-the-investment-company-act] that's a game-changer for activist investors in closed-end funds. Critics of activism have long held that professional arbitrageurs used federal courts to pressure closed-end funds into deals that benefit activists' at the expense of the long-term objectives of ordinary shareholders. Burdon says the decision doesn't stop the activists from pursuing cases but removes a key path that activists took to pursue their actions much more quickly and easily.

Interactive Broker's Sosnick: 'I can't fight the tape, but I can't embrace it either'

Steve Sosnick [https://ibkrcampus.com/author/steve-sosnick/], chief market strategist at Interactive Brokers [https://interactivebrokers.com], entered the year expecting the stock market to be down in 2026, and while stocks have overcome the gravity he saw weighing it down, he thinks there is trouble on the horizon. "We've become very detached from basic fundamentals and very much focused on ... betting the longshot, that it's going to come in," Sosnick says in today's Big Interview. "Either we reach an extreme level and grow into it ... or we overshoot the target and have to correct a bit and I hope it's nothing worse than a garden-variety correction." Catherine Yoshimoto, director of product management for the Russell U.S. Indexes at FTSE Russell [https://lseg.com/en/ftse-russell], discusses the 2026 semi-annual Russell U.S. Indexes Reconstitution [https://lseg.com/en/ftse-russell/russell-reconstitution], which is underway now and concludes on June 26. The process — which resets the index but also defines the size it takes for a stock to be large-, small- or micro-cap is-resetting the bar for large-cap investments at roughly $5.7 billion. That's up nearly 25% from a year ago, reflecting huge gains for the Magnificent Seven stocks (up nearly 50% in size from a year ago) but also broad-based growth across market segments. In the Market Call, Kathy Boyle, president of Chapin Hill Advisors [https://chapinhill.com], talks about using ETFs to play defense, leaning into precious metals and commodities and other areas to protect against downside risk that she expects will materialize when the market starts to lose its momentum.

Value investor Davis on how investing is changing in the age of A.I.

Chris Davis, chairman and portfolio manager at Davis Advisors [https://davisadvisors.com] discusses how every technological revolution — dating back to the days of the printing press but extending to the artificial-intelligence boom bow — goes through the cycle of "Amara's Law," in which the effects of a technology are overestimated in the short run but underestimated over the long term. As a result, Davis says investors are putting too much into the hype phase around AI, without looking at the long-term picture. Davis, in The Big Interview, echoes his recent paper on "Investing in the A.I. Age [https://davisetfs.com/investor_education/investing-in-ai-age]," which suggests that companies will fall into five categories: "emerging winners, enablers, users, insulated businesses and the walking dead," and talks about how investors can navigate the changing market and avoid the pitfalls of the latest technological evolution. Davis is not the only value manager discussing the current market on today's show. In the Market Call, John Dorfman — a long-time classic value manager and the chairman of Dorfman Value Investments [https://dorfmanvalue.com] — gives his take on how current conditions have created some changes to the investment processes that have defined his career, noting that they are subtle but substantive in delivering better returns than many investors expect the value style to deliver in a growth-dominated market. In today's "Talking Technicals" segment, Matt Fox, president of Ithaca Wealth Management [https://ithacawealth.com], says that the stock market is poised for more gains and new highs, and that investors should "hold on and ride the trend higher for sure." Fox discusses technical measures based around long-term trends, and he sees the Standard & Poor's 500 suprassing 10,000 and the Nasdaq 100 45,000 in "around two years." While he does see garden-variety corrections occuring in that time frame, Fox set S&P 7,000 as a key support level, noting it is possible there's a setback that low, even as the overall trend is upward.