Retail Spending Beats Forecasts as Homebuyers Wait for Lower Rates

Retail Spending Beats Forecasts as Homebuyers Wait for Lower Rates

Mortgage pricing improved, oil prices moved lower, and markets turned their attention toward the Federal Reserve and a possible U.S.-Iran peace agreement. In this episode of Real Estate Jerky Daily, Ed Parcaut explains why rates improved and why buyers should pay attention to more than just today's mortgage quote. Ed recently saw a borrower's available rate improve by approximately one-quarter percentage point between the initial quote and the loan disclosure. That improvement shows how quickly mortgage pricing can change when oil, inflation expectations, Treasury yields, and geopolitical headlines shift. The episode also covers the latest Mortgage Bankers Association application report. Overall mortgage application volume declined 3.8% for the week. Purchase applications fell 3.4%, while refinance applications dropped 4.5%. Although refinance activity remained above last year's level, Ed explains that the numbers are still weak compared with periods when rates were substantially lower. Retail sales offered a different signal. May sales increased 0.9%, beating expectations, while sales excluding automobiles rose 0.8%. Consumers are still spending despite concerns about affordability and household budgets. Ed also discusses: * Mortgage pricing improving during the morning * The 10-year Treasury holding near 4.43% * Oil settling below $80 per barrel * Why lower oil may eventually reduce inflation pressure * Falling purchase and refinance applications * Stronger-than-expected retail sales * Continued weakness in builder confidence * The Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision * A possible U.S.-Iran peace agreement * Reopening the Strait of Hormuz without tolls * Why waiting for lower rates may create more buyer competition The central message is to focus on the right property and overall financial strategy. Rates may improve, but lower borrowing costs can quickly bring more buyers back into the housing market. Subscribe to Real Estate Jerky Daily for mortgage insight, housing-market updates, economic reports, and market news with teeth. Contact and Social Links: 🔗 **Follow us:** - **Facebook:** [Real Estate Jerky](https://facebook.com/RealEstateJerky) - **Instagram:** [@RealEstateJerky](https://instagram.com/RealEstateJerky) - **Website:** [Real Estate Jerky](https://realestatejerky.com) 🔗 Ed Parcaut: www.edparcaut.com - Twitter: [@EdParcaut](https://twitter.com/EdParcaut) - LinkedIn: [Ed Parcaut](https://www.linkedin.com/in/edparcaut) Catch every episode for sharp insight and real talk about what matters now in real estate! #RealEstateJerkyDaily #EdParcaut #RealEstateJerky #MortgageRates #MortgageApplications #HousingMarketUpdate #RealEstatePodcast #MortgagePodcast #FederalReserve #FOMC #RetailSales #OilPrices #Inflation #TenYearTreasury #HomeBuyingTips #Refinance #HousingAffordability #HomebuyerCompetition #MortgageMarket #CaliforniaRealEstate #ModestoRealEstate #CentralValleyRealEstate #MarketNewsWithTeeth

Slower Job Growth, Lower Oil, and the Mortgage Market Waiting Game

Housing starts fell sharply in May, dropping to their lowest annualized pace since 2020. What could that mean for housing supply, home prices, buyer competition, and mortgage rates? In this episode of Real Estate Jerky Daily, Ed Parcaut breaks down the latest housing construction and employment reports. Building permits came in near expectations at approximately 1.4 million annualized units, but housing starts fell roughly 15% to an annualized pace near 1.18 million. Ed explains that the country needs significantly more new homes each year to keep up with household formation and population growth. When construction slows, fewer new homes reach the market. If mortgage rates move lower and demand rises, buyers may find themselves competing for an even smaller supply of available properties. Ed also covers: * Mortgage pricing improving by approximately four basis points * The 10-year Treasury near 4.44% * Oil prices moving lower * Why lower oil does not immediately erase inflation * The Federal Reserve meeting * A possible Middle East peace agreement * The Strait of Hormuz reopening without tolls * Weekly ADP job growth slowing * Why some layoffs may not be related to artificial intelligence * The buy-now-and-refinance-later strategy The episode's central message is simple: rates can change, but the number of available homes may remain limited. Buyers should consider the entire market, not just the current interest rate. Subscribe to Real Estate Jerky Daily for mortgage updates, housing data, economic insight, and real estate news with teeth. Contact and Social Links: 🔗 **Follow us:** - **Facebook:** [Real Estate Jerky](https://facebook.com/RealEstateJerky) - **Instagram:** [@RealEstateJerky](https://instagram.com/RealEstateJerky) - **Website:** [Real Estate Jerky](https://realestatejerky.com) 🔗 Ed Parcaut: www.edparcaut.com - Twitter: [@EdParcaut](https://twitter.com/EdParcaut) - LinkedIn: [Ed Parcaut](https://www.linkedin.com/in/edparcaut) Catch every episode for sharp insight and real talk about what matters now in real estate! #RealEstateJerkyDaily #EdParcaut #RealEstateJerky #HousingStarts #BuildingPermits #HousingShortage #MortgageRates #FederalReserve #TenYearTreasury #HousingMarketUpdate #RealEstatePodcast #MortgagePodcast #HomeBuyingTips #NewHomeConstruction #HousingSupply #HomebuyerCompetition #ADPJobs #OilPrices #Inflation #BuyNowRefinanceLater #CaliforniaRealEstate #ModestoRealEstate #CentralValleyRealEstate

Real Estate Jerky Daily $35 Trillion in Equity and No Housing Crash

National housing inventory increased again, but homeowners are also holding a record amount of equity. What do those two numbers tell us about the direction of the real estate market? In this episode of Real Estate Jerky Daily, Ed Parcaut examines the latest housing, mortgage, manufacturing, and builder-confidence reports. National active inventory increased by more than 10,000 listings to approximately 816,924. The national median list price remained around $450,000, average market time held near 56 days, and price reductions climbed to approximately 37.93%. Ed explains why rising inventory matters without automatically signaling a housing crash. Real estate remains highly local, and conditions can vary significantly depending on the city, neighborhood, price range, and property type. The episode also covers the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index. Builder confidence declined to 35, current sales conditions weakened, expectations for the next six months remained below healthy levels, and buyer traffic stayed low. Another major number in this episode is homeowner equity. Owner-occupied residential real estate reached an estimated value of $49 trillion. After subtracting approximately $14 trillion in mortgage debt, homeowners were left with roughly $35 trillion in equity. Ed also reviews: * Mortgage pricing improving by approximately 16 basis points * The 10-year Treasury remaining near 4.46% * Oil prices and their effect on inflation * Cooling regional manufacturing activity * The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting * Housing starts and ADP employment reports * Mortgage applications and pending home sales * The decision to lock or float a mortgage rate The key message is that buyers are still purchasing homes in neighborhoods where supply is limited. Inventory is rising, but desirable properties remain scarce in many local markets. Subscribe to Real Estate Jerky Daily for housing-market updates, mortgage education, economic insight, and real estate news with teeth. Contact and Social Links: 🔗 **Follow us:** - **Facebook:** [Real Estate Jerky](https://facebook.com/RealEstateJerky) - **Instagram:** [@RealEstateJerky](https://instagram.com/RealEstateJerky) - **Website:** [Real Estate Jerky](https://realestatejerky.com) 🔗 Ed Parcaut: www.edparcaut.com - Twitter: [@EdParcaut](https://twitter.com/EdParcaut) - LinkedIn: [Ed Parcaut](https://www.linkedin.com/in/edparcaut) Catch every episode for sharp insight and real talk about what matters now in real estate! #RealEstateJerkyDaily #EdParcaut #RealEstateJerky #RealEstatePodcast #MortgagePodcast #HousingMarketUpdate #HousingInventory #HomeEquity #MortgageRates #HomebuilderConfidence #BuilderSentiment #FederalReserve #PriceReductions #HomeBuyingTips #HomeSellingTips #RealEstateMarket #TenYearTreasury #Inflation #MortgageRateLock #ModestoRealEstate #CentralValleyRealEstate #CaliforniaRealEstate #MarketNewsWithTeeth

Mortgage Rate Volatility Meets Strong Local Pending Sales

In this June 12 episode of Real Estate Jerky Daily, Ed Parcaut and Mike Kelly break down local housing activity, California market numbers, VA mortgage pricing, wage growth, and the economic reports that could move rates next week. The local Stanislaus County market remained active, with closings increasing from earlier in the week and pending sales continuing to hold above 400. Ed and Mike also review California housing activity, including daily closings, pending transactions, days on market, and the percentage of sellers reducing their asking prices. One of the most important mortgage topics in this episode is the difference between a VA loan within the conforming loan limit and a VA loan just above that threshold. Ed explains that crossing into jumbo VA pricing can create a significant rate difference. In one real-world scenario, a borrower could potentially contribute additional funds to stay below the limit and save close to half a percentage point on the interest rate. Ed also covers the Atlanta Federal Reserve Wage Growth Tracker. Wage growth continued to slow for both employees staying in their current jobs and workers changing employers. The premium for switching jobs is now much smaller than it was a few years ago. The episode concludes with a preview of next week's economic calendar, including industrial production, housing starts, ADP employment, mortgage applications, retail sales, pending home sales, jobless claims, and the Federal Reserve meeting. Subscribe to Real Estate Jerky Daily for local market updates, mortgage education, VA loan insight, and economic news with teeth. #RealEstateJerkyDaily #EdParcaut #MikeKelly #RealEstateJerky #RealEstatePodcast #MortgagePodcast #VALoans #VAJumboLoan #MortgageRates #HousingMarketUpdate #StanislausCountyRealEstate #ModestoRealEstate #CentralValleyRealEstate #CaliforniaRealEstate #PendingSales #HomeClosings #PriceReductions #WageGrowth #FederalReserve #MarketNewsWithTeeth Contact and Social Links: 🔗 **Follow us:** - **Facebook:** [Real Estate Jerky](https://facebook.com/RealEstateJerky) - **Instagram:** [@RealEstateJerky](https://instagram.com/RealEstateJerky) - **Website:** [Real Estate Jerky](https://realestatejerky.com) 🔗 Ed Parcaut: www.edparcaut.com - Twitter: [@EdParcaut](https://twitter.com/EdParcaut) - LinkedIn: [Ed Parcaut](https://www.linkedin.com/in/edparcaut) Catch every episode for sharp insight and real talk about what matters now in real estate!

PPI Inflation Runs Hot While Mortgage Rates Catch a Small Break

In this episode of Real Estate Jerky Daily, Ed Parcaut and Mike Kelly cover a packed Thursday market update featuring inflation data, jobless claims, mortgage rate movement, existing home sales, oil prices, and global uncertainty. Ed starts with the market reaction, including the Dow moving higher, mortgage pricing improving by several basis points, and the 10-year Treasury sitting around the mid-4 percent range. Even with some improvement in mortgage pricing, Ed explains that rates are still being affected by inflation pressure, war headlines, oil prices, and broader market uncertainty. The major economic report in this episode is the Producer Price Index, also known as PPI, which measures wholesale inflation. Headline PPI came in hotter than expected, while core PPI was closer to expectations. Ed and Mike discuss how energy and oil prices can influence the inflation conversation and why that matters for mortgage rates. The episode also covers initial jobless claims, which came in higher than expected, along with continuing claims. Ed and Mike talk through what rising claims may suggest about the labor market and why employment data remains important to the housing and mortgage markets. On the real estate side, Ed reviews existing home sales, which beat expectations and rose to an annualized pace above 4 million. The national median existing home price was also discussed, with Ed reminding listeners that national numbers are different from California and local Central Valley pricing. The episode wraps with local Modesto talk, including Graffiti Weekend, the car show at MJC West, and the usual Ed and Mike humor. Subscribe to Real Estate Jerky Daily for real estate updates, mortgage market insight, economic data, and market news with teeth. Contact and Social Links: 🔗 **Follow us:** - **Facebook:** [Real Estate Jerky](https://facebook.com/RealEstateJerky) - **Instagram:** [@RealEstateJerky](https://instagram.com/RealEstateJerky) - **Website:** [Real Estate Jerky](https://realestatejerky.com) 🔗 Ed Parcaut: www.edparcaut.com - Twitter: [@EdParcaut](https://twitter.com/EdParcaut) - LinkedIn: [Ed Parcaut](https://www.linkedin.com/in/edparcaut) Catch every episode for sharp insight and real talk about what matters now in real estate! #RealEstateJerkyDaily #EdParcaut #MikeKelly #RealEstateJerky #RealEstatePodcast #MortgagePodcast #MortgageRates #PPIInflation #ProducerPriceIndex #CPIReport #JoblessClaims #ExistingHomeSales #HousingMarketUpdate #RealEstateMarket #TenYearTreasury #OilPrices #ModestoRealEstate #CentralValleyRealEstate #CaliforniaRealEstate #MarketNewsWithTeeth