Kimi K3 Spooks Tech, But This Could Actually Be Bullish for the Hyperscalers

Kimi K3 Spooks Tech, But This Could Actually Be Bullish for the Hyperscalers

Tech got spooked by the Kimi's new K3 headline, the open source Chinese model out of Moonshot that is benchmarking competitive with the frontier labs, and it feels eerily similar to the DeepSeek scare. Markets sell off on uncertainty, and my read is this could end up being bullish. Open source is a positive for the broader economy, and I agree with the take that this is a dream scenario for the hyperscalers who become the orchestration layer for multiple models while squeezing more tokens out of existing infrastructure. It also reinforces why I am suspicious that if there is an AI bubble, it is OpenAI and Anthropic, not the infrastructure. Memory names, Lam Research, and Caterpillar needed a breather regardless of one headline, and I make the case that Lam Research and Caterpillar are the picks and shovels winners nobody gives enough attention to. I am up 886% on Lam Research and 514% on Caterpillar and have never thought about trimming either. Netflix sold off 11% and I am still holding, down 24% on the name, and I explain my real complaint with the business, which is content quality rather than the quarter. Also shout out to both Simeon McMillan of Accrued Interest @simeonmcmillan and Investor's Compass @investorscompass on Substack that write their own pieces on the Netflix earnings report. I also cover why the next leg of this bull market has to be led by hyperscalers, semis, or software rather than old economy names, why banks are not actually on a Goldilocks run yet, TSMC's strong quarter that nobody talked about, GE Aerospace and the dip I missed, and why I politely disagree with Larry Tentarelli on buying downtrends. I have no fear buying falling knives. Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore. Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com [https://rigatonicapital.substack.com] Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. #investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #KimiK3 #OpenSourceAI #China #DeepSeek #Hyperscalers #OpenAI #Anthropic #Netflix #NFLX #LamResearch #LRCX #Caterpillar #CAT #TSMC #TSM #GEAerospace #GE #IntuitiveSurgical #ISRG #stockanalysis #marketwatch #RigatoniCapital $NFLX $LRCX $CAT $TSM $GE $ISRG $TRV $AAPL $QQQ

BlackRock Blows Out Earnings and Larry Fink Pushes Back on the CapEx Bears

BlackRock reported a blowout quarter with record revenue and record assets under management above $15 trillion. I own BlackRock directly and I am up 75% on the name since 2022, so I walk through the report, including why you need to strip out the HPS Investment Partners numbers when comparing year over year. Larry Fink went on Squawk on the Street and pushed back on Faber's framing that hyperscaler CapEx is speculative, and I break down why both sides of that debate have objective data before the argument turns into pure guesswork. My own take is that if there is an AI bubble, you are looking right at it, and it is OpenAI and Anthropic, not the infrastructure. I also cover Gavin Baker's response to Michael Burry on what happens to margins if share shifts from the frontier labs to cheaper models, why I politely disagree with Larry Tentarelli that this sell-off is a Fed story rather than froth coming out of tech, and quick looks at JB Hunt, United Airlines, Progressive, and ASML. Netflix reports tonight. Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore. Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com [https://rigatonicapital.substack.com] Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. #investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #BlackRock #BLK #LarryFink #AICapEx #Hyperscalers #OpenAI #Anthropic #GavinBaker #MichaelBurry #ASML #Netflix #NFLX #JBHunt #Progressive #JPMorgan #JPM #stockanalysis #marketwatch #RigatoniCapital $BLK $JPM $JBHT $PGR $UAL $ASML $NFLX $MU $QQQ

BlackRock and Bank Earnings Matter Most Today for Long Term Investors

I rolled out of bed this morning and my phone was full of distractions. The Warren Buffett and Bill Gates Foundation drama, the Stripe deal with PayPal and Block, a Wall Street Journal headline about blockbuster stock sales overwhelming the bull market. None of that is the most important story today. Financial earnings are. BlackRock reported a strong quarter with assets under management hitting a record $15.3 trillion, up 22% year over year, revenue up 31%, GAAP operating income up 42%, and the company raising planned 2026 share repurchases to $2 billion. The stock is up over 5% pre-market. Financials are not having a cash problem and they are buying back shares, which makes them look like the good students in the room next to the hyperscalers whose buybacks are slowing down. I own a small position in BlackRock and I wish it were bigger. I also explain why I am not buying Goldman Sachs or JPMorgan up here and why the time to add was June 2023 during the regional bank crisis. I make the case that financials could be in the early innings of a Goldilocks run alongside the AI tech renaissance, the same way big banks got wealthy during the late nineties dot-com IPO boom. I also cover why high credit card delinquency charts do not show up at the big banks, ASML's strong quarter accelerating to 21% growth, industrials like Caterpillar up 62% year to date, and Kevin Warsh's testimony in front of Congress. Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore. Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com [https://rigatonicapital.substack.com] Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. #investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #BlackRock #BLK #BankEarnings #Financials #XLF #JPMorgan #JPM #GoldmanSachs #GS #LarryFink #ASML #Caterpillar #CAT #KevinWarsh #stockanalysis #marketwatch #RigatoniCapital $BLK $JPM $XLF $GS $ASML $CAT $QQQ $BRK.B

June CPI Comes In Low, Bank Earnings Kick Off, and IBM Drags Down Software

June CPI came in surprisingly low this morning, with the month over month down 0.4% and year over year at 3.5%, a nice cooldown from the US-Iran war energy highs as gas prices came off. Bank earnings are kicking off with JPMorgan reporting a record revenue beat, though the stock is roughly flat, and Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs all reporting. I will have a deep dive on the banks on Substack later today. The bigger mover is IBM, which put out weak preliminary Q2 numbers and crashed hard, dragging the whole software space down with it. ZeroHedge is running the SaaS apocalypse headline again, but when you actually read IBM's explanation, clients shifted their June CapEx toward servers, storage, and memory to lock in supply before price increases, delaying mainframe and software deals rather than canceling them. Palantir and AppLovin initially sold off in pre-market on the back of that IBM software headline and the broader AI disruption fear, and I explain why that story has nothing to do with either name, and why AppLovin is not even a SaaS company. My take on software is the same as always: pick your fighters. I do not like the IGV as a play. I think Palantir and AppLovin are not disrupted by the AI story, and I am honest that I am not sure about the legacy names like Salesforce, Adobe, and Workday. I also cover Morgan Stanley raising its 2027 and 2028 hyperscaler CapEx estimates, why that spend running five times free cash flow means buybacks are not coming back anytime soon, and why I still think best of breed financials like JPMorgan, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Chubb, and Travelers are undervalued but worth waiting for on a pullback. Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore. Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com [https://rigatonicapital.substack.com] Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. #investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #IBM #SaaS #AIDisruption #SoftwareStocks #IGV #Palantir #PLTR #AppLovin #APP #BankEarnings #JPMorgan #JPM #GoldmanSachs #GS #BlackRock #Hyperscalers #CPI #stockanalysis #marketwatch #RigatoniCapital $JPM $GS $BLK $IBM $PLTR $APP $QQQ $IGV $TRV

Citadel's Ken Griffin Says Long Term Investors Will Have the Advantage Going Forward

Ken Griffin was interviewed last week and made a point that lines up with everything I talk about here: as alternative data and AI make each quarter more transparent, the edge shifts away from guessing whether a company beats this quarter and toward those who can envision which companies will create transformative products over the next 10 years. That is the kind of long term vision Rigatoni Capital is built on. I also get into the frontier lab problem flooding my feed this weekend, the token cost and pricing revolt with the Palo Alto CEO going on CNBC, the IP theft fight between OpenAI, Elon, and Apple, and why all of it makes Palantir and Alex Karp look more right than they did two weeks ago. Full disclosure, I own Palantir. I cover the SK Hynix Nasdaq debut and the leverage coming out of the KOSPI, why I am still not worried about memory, the Strait of Hormuz situation and what it means for oil and the Fed, and Griffin's point that most of the AI driving corporate earnings is really machine learning, optimization, and digitization. Big bank earnings kick off this week and that is what I am most excited about. Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore. Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com [https://rigatonicapital.substack.com] Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. #investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #KenGriffin #Citadel #Palantir #PLTR #FrontierLabs #Anthropic #OpenAI #PaloAlto #PANW #SKHynix #Semiconductors #StraitofHormuz #stockanalysis #marketwatch #RigatoniCapital $QQQ $PLTR $PANW $MU $TRV $SKHY