Weekly Performance Update & Current Selloff Views
All right, everybody, welcome back to another weekend newsletter from The Simple Side. We’re gonna jump into our portfolio performance, all of our one-off stock bets, and we’ll talk a little bit about why the market dropped so much and if we should be worried. Let’s get into it…
But before we do…
Here is a quick breakdown of all the current offerings that Simple Side subscribers can indulge in. We offer a total of 2 alternatively managed portfolios, 3 managed portfolios, and a group of one-off stock picks. All of my personal investment capital is invested in all of these things I discuss, unless otherwise stated.
Alternative Managed Portfolios (offered on Autopilot)
* The Perplexity AI Finance Portfolio [https://marketplace.joinautopilot.com/landing/2943/737030?referrer=2943]
* Portfolio managed entirely by Perplexity Finance, offered by The Simple Side on Autopilot.
* The Insideredges.com Portfolio [https://marketplace.joinautopilot.com/landing/2943/734049?referrer=2943]
* Portfolio built by Insider Edges Premium Picks [https://www.insideredges.com/premium-picks/dashboard] and Monthly Picks [https://www.insideredges.com/monthly-picks]
* 13-19 holdings
* 10 from the premium picks portfolio and 3-9 from the monthly picks.
Managed Portfolios (offered on Autopilot)
* The Flagship Fund [https://marketplace.joinautopilot.com/landing/2943/708098?referrer=2943]
* Long-term holds (12-month rebalance)
* Focused on quality growing companies
* 15-25 holdings
* The Tech Growth Portfolio [https://marketplace.joinautopilot.com/landing/2943/713714?referrer=2943]
* Mid-to-long-term holds (3-24-months)
* Focused on disrupting high-growth names
* Includes monthly picks
* 15-20 holdings
* The Second-Hand Effects Portfolio [https://marketplace.joinautopilot.com/landing/2943/712633?referrer=2943]
* Mid-to-long-term holds (3-24-months)
* Focused on current trends, “picks and shovels.”
* 15-20 holdings
Other Offerings (Only Available Through This Newsletter)
* One-off Researched Stock Bets [https://thesimpleside.news/research]
* Individual stocks we invest in whenever we find good opportunities.
Let’s quickly talk about our managed portfolios that we talk about and share with subscribers for free in the newsletter. The two portfolios that I’m gonna talk about here are available to copy trade on Autopilot. And like always, there’ll be links in the newsletter all over the place for you to go and find these portfolios on Autopilot to copy trade them. One of these portfolios is managed by Perplexity Finance [https://marketplace.joinautopilot.com/landing/2943/737030?referrer=2943]. The other one is insideredges.com [https://www.insideredges.com/], which is an insider trading, thirteen-F tracking, hedge fund tracking platform that’s available, and you guys can go and look at that and find that and use them and their stock picks if you so choose.
Our quick discussion on the current market and if we should be worried is at the very bottom today…
Alternative Managed Portfolios (offered on Autopilot)
Perplexity Finance [https://marketplace.joinautopilot.com/landing/2943/737030?referrer=2943]
Let’s start with the Perplexity Finance portfolio that we’re managing. Currently, the portfolio has something like eight hundred and fifty thousand dollars of assets under management, and that’s spread across about a hundred different people. Year to date, the portfolio has been doing extremely well, up 28.78% percent, while the S&P five hundred over the same period of time has only averaged 7.96 percent returns.
So pretty impressive returns there. And again, over the past three months, we’re up something like twenty percent, again, outperformance against the S&P five hundred.
Over the past month, we’re up four point four eight percent, again, outperforming the S&P five hundred, which is only up one point nine percent. And then over the past week is where things started to get a little bit ugly. We’re down three percent, 3.06 percent to be exact, and the S&P five hundred over that same period of time is down two point five percent. So a little bit of underperformance, in the short term, but when you zoom out, when you look at the big picture, we’re outperforming by quite a vast margin there. And, we’re very happy to be sitting in that position with this portfolio.
Now, if we want to talk stocks and the allocations that we’re seeing in this portfolio, it’s pretty cut and dry, pretty simple. Micron is the number one pick in the portfolio with a weighting of 7.36%. We’re up almost 280% on that stock. Google is sitting at the number two allocation, which is 7.28%… so, about 0.1% less than our Micron position. That’s up about 15%. And then in the number three position, this has been a relatively new one from Perplexity Finance over the past few weeks. It’s been growing in the position in XLU. That XLU stock is in the utility sector, and so it’s tracking the utility sector there. That’s a 7.21% weighting, and that’s down about 1.4%.
So, I think if you look at the broader market downturn that we just recently saw, the large sell-off that we saw on Friday, especially, the XLU purchase starts to kind of make a little bit of sense. It’s looking for a little bit of stability while a lot of the other things in the market are on rocky ground.
The next couple of stocks we have on the list are Amazon, Microsoft, UnitedHealth, Lam Research, and then we have a Schwab US dividend ETF. So those really make up about your top 10 picks there. Overall, as I said, performance has been very good. It’s well-to-do. New stock picks come out for Perplexity Finance every Monday morning. So if the AI decides with the information that I feed to it that it wants to make some sort of a change, it’ll let me know then. I’ll go in, I’ll make the change, I’ll make the adjustment,
Then the portfolio will continue on. Again, the goal I think for this portfolio is just to have extended slow growth, looking for anywhere upwards of 8% to 10% returns per year. So a slight outperformance of the S&P 500 is what we’re going for. Recently, we’ve seen a large outperformance against the S&P 500. Hopefully, that continues, but only time will tell.
InsiderEdges.com (Portfolio & Website) [https://www.insideredges.com/]
The next managed portfolio that we have is the InsiderEdges.com portfolio. This is a newer one that I just started tracking on Autopilot, and that means that we don’t have as many subscribers or as many assets under management under this portfolio yet. But I think over time, and from what I’m gleaning from the InsiderEdges.com website, we should start to see this portfolio pick up and outperform over time, especially in bull markets. So we just started this portfolio, I want to say about three-ish months ago. So over the past three months, we’re up around 11.75%. Autopilot shows the returns a bit lower because it takes the aggregate return, not the actual return you would have experienced over that time period.
Again, the S&P 500 was up over that same period of time, 8.25%. So outperformance there. Over the past month, we have been struggling down 2.55%, while the S&P 500 returns 1.9%. So we’re down a little bit under the S&P 500 over that same period of time. But over the past three months, again, zooming out at the bigger picture, we’re seeing some outperformance from the portfolio there. And then this past week, the portfolio just got smoked really hard, down 5.61%, while the S&P 500, as I said earlier, was down only 2.5%. So underperformance again over the past week should be no surprise, heavily indexed in tech, as many hedge funds and 13F investors are. So, of course, we’re going to see some negative performance, especially when we watch the Nasdaq take such a sharp fall. So the way InsiderEdges.com [https://www.insideredges.com/] portfolio works is we take all of their premium portfolio stock picks that are available to subscribers who use the website, and we put them into a portfolio, and we offer that portfolio for people to copy trade. Now, if you look back at the historical, I guess, rankings of the portfolio, we’ve seen the premium picks portfolio perform at about 17% per year, and we’ve seen the monthly picks portfolio perform at about 22% a year.
So if you want to go and check any of that out, again, just go to InsiderEdges.com [https://www.insideredges.com/subscribe]. But we’ll talk about what their top positions are at the current moment. They currently have 14 positions. I think 4 of those are coming from the monthly picks portfolio. The other 10 are coming from the premium picks portfolio, and they’re allocated as follows. Microsoft is in the largest position by a pretty wide margin outside of the top three holdings. Allocation percentage is 16.17%. Current return since that stock’s been invested in is 4.2%. Amazon is in the number two position. Allocation is 15.19%. The current percent return on that holding is 2.4%. Then, at number three, the one that is lagging relative to these top, large holdings is Meta. Allocation is only 10%, so 5% less than the other two, and we’re down about 2.1% on that holding. Then I think the next couple of picks are where we start to get into more of the premium picks territory. Cloudflare, ticker NET, allocation 6.56%. We’re up 23.6% on that holding. Nat Terra, this is a pick from, I believe, Stanley Druckenmiller. Allocation is about 6.11%. We’re up around 10% on that pick.
Of course, I’ll include a picture here so you guys can go and check out the rest of the stocks we hold and how they’ve been performing. In general, I think this portfolio is set to do well over time, especially in periods after we see stock market drops like what we’ve seen today. Of course, I wish we were going to get a bunch of 13F filings tomorrow so that I could go jump over to InsiderEdges, find all the important stock picks, invest in those companies, and then take that, run with it.
Obviously, we don’t have those new filings coming out now, but we’ll be watching for those along with InsiderEdges at some point in the future. But for our managed portfolios that are kind of external to what we offer to paid subscribers on the newsletter, that’s all we have. We’re going to jump into the performance of some of these other actively managed portfolios that are under my care here in just a moment. But I wanted to share two portfolios that have actually been performing very, very well that you just can’t access really through the newsletter. You kind of need to be on Autopilot to be able to copy trade those portfolios. Of course, they’re included in the newsletter. You’re going to be getting these every week now.
Managed Portfolios (offered on Autopilot)
The Flagship Fund [https://marketplace.joinautopilot.com/landing/2943/708098?referrer=2943]
If you just want to know in general how things are performing, this section right here will be for you. We’re going to start, like always, with the flagship fund, which has kind of been my main investment vehicle for my own personal portfolio since about 2020. If you don’t know, it’s been averaging about 39%, really a 39% CAGR, compounded annual growth rate, per year, not including 2026. So it’s done very, very well. But I would like to say that there’s a huge caveat here, which is that we started in one of the greatest bull markets of all time.
So we’ve been very lucky to pick up the performance that’s offered to us as well. I still do believe very strongly in the methodology that I have for finding stocks and putting them in my portfolio. I think the largest drawdown that we’ve seen has been 36%. So we’re willing and able to accept returns or downturns like that when we know that almost every year we’re going to be returning, anywhere from 30% to 40%. Now, I think that will decline as time goes on. I expect us to get closer and closer to the 20% returns per year. Which I would feel comfortable with if we could sustain that. But, regardless, let’s talk about some returns. One of the things that I’ve loved to say, and I’ll talk about it over and over, and over again, and sometimes I do it as a reminder for myself, is that we were really over-indexed into the software sector. I think, something like 60% or 70% of the holdings that we had in the portfolio were in the software sector, and they really didn’t fit the investment thesis that I have built for my personal investing journey, which is high-quality companies that have profitability, that are growing very fast. That’s what I like. I think it’s a very simple way to look at the market.
You go, and you find a stock. The stock is doing very well. It’s got strong fundamentals. There’s not too much debt there. And you say, “Is this company growing?” The company is growing very quickly relative to many of the other companies that could potentially fit in the same vein, and then you say, “That’s the one I want.” And it just makes sense to me to say, “Here’s a company that has good management, that’s managing the company well, and it’s growing quite quickly.” It’s hard to look at a company like that and say, “This would not make a good investment.” As for the software sector, I think it’s harder to tell whether or not you have a quality business. There are so many legacy businesses that exist in the industry… I think I was sort of blindly taking these companies at face value, and I liked their margins and their growth more than I really liked the actual business model or the quality of the underlying business.
A great example is Paycom. I was invested heavily in Paycom. We use Paycom in one of the businesses that I work with, and we don’t exactly like the way that it works. It’s not super customizable for things that we need. It’s pretty cookie-cutter. It works really well for many of the legacy brands and businesses that have been built on top of it. But I don’t really like the software. I don’t like the reporting, and yet I still invested in the stock. It just didn’t make much sense. When you do that, and 60% of your portfolio is built into companies like that, all of a sudden, you’re experiencing negative returns in a portfolio where you should be experiencing the opposite. So that’s a very long-winded way of going about what I was trying to say.
Basically, if we had not made this software error at the beginning of the year, our portfolio would be up 14.52%. Now, sadly, we did invest in all of these software companies. We over-indexed in them, expecting high returns. It didn’t end up that way. So, year to date, our flagship fund is now only up around 5%.
Obviously, this number will change if you’ve been investing in the portfolio over time, or DCA-ing, or anything of that nature. But for now, year to date, we are up about 5%. Over the past month, I think we’re up about 3.8%, and quite honestly, I feel like that’s not something worth complaining about at this point in time. Now, if you go and check the Autopilot page, I think it’ll tell you something a little bit different. It might say, like 1.5%, and that should, as far as I know, not be indicative of the returns that you should have from these companies. That’s the total aggregate performance. So some people might have bought sooner, some people might have bought into the portfolio later, and so the aggregate performance on Autopilot adjusts based on the total amount of capital that’s been put into the portfolio and how it’s performed.
Over the past three months, we’re doing fair, I would say. We’re up about 8.41%. The S&P, again, is up 8.25%, so we’ve almost matched them. I believe that if you took away this negative performance on Friday, we were just starting to break away from the S&P 500. We were up about 14.33%, while the S&P 500 was up 11%. And we were starting to kind of pick up momentum in that growth as well.
And we’ll talk more about what I think about the overall economy and portfolio sometime here in the future. Then, of course, like everything else over this past week, the flagship fund was smoked. I think going into Friday, the S&P was about even. I think it was about 0.08% returns in the S&P. Then the flagship fund, the poor flagship fund, we were up 3% going into this Friday. Then we ended the week, again, getting smoked along with the S&P, down 2.37%. Slightly above the performance of the S&P 500, but still struggling quite a bit.
The Tech Growth Portfolio [https://marketplace.joinautopilot.com/landing/2943/713714?referrer=2943]
Now we get to talk about a more interesting one. That’s the tech growth portfolio, which I think you could absolutely say is the tech loss portfolio when the market does a downturn like it did this Friday. Yes, we absolutely, absolutely experienced that. Year to date in this portfolio, we have just been struggling. We cannot seem to get a foothold on the performance of the portfolio. We just seem to constantly have losses, even though I do believe we have some very strong holdings in the portfolio. They just haven’t really been able to find their footing. Year to date, let’s see what I have in performance. I have it sitting at around -5.9%. So down about 6% on the year. Of course, the performance that I just distaste so much.
Of course, this is just another one of those portfolios where we had great momentum coming into this week. We’re starting to very, very quickly outperform the S&P 500. Then, of course, we saw this big sell-off.
But that’s how a lot of high-growth portfolios work, and most people understand that. If you’re going for high growth, you’re typically picking up a lot of downside as well when the market turns. So let’s see what we’re looking at for returns over the past month. I’m showing an increase of about 3% over the past month. Again, at one point in time, we were showing 14.45%. And that was at the same time the S&P was experiencing 11.49%. Then, of course, the last couple of days of the week happened, and we just dropped off that cliff.
Over the past month, the S&P 500 again ended at 1.9% returns, us ending -0.83% returns. Of course, a lot of that negative performance again came in the latter half of the week, where we just ended up underperforming by vast margins. Again, I really think as long as the current portfolio, or as long as the current investing environment stands, we’ll start to see outperformance in this portfolio in a big, big way. Our monthly picks this month are doing okay. There are some that are doing worse than others, but they’re doing relatively well. I just think that we’re close to seeing a breakout here. But when the market turns, we struggle.
The Second-Hand Effects Portfolio [https://marketplace.joinautopilot.com/landing/2943/712633?referrer=2943]
That struggle continued in one of our top-performing portfolios, the AI Secondhand Effects Portfolio. We’ve got around $900,000 invested in this portfolio. Year to date, we’ve seen pretty solid performance up anywhere, I think around 12%. 12% to 14% is the performance that we’ve seen year to date out of this portfolio. At times, been up as high as 28%. Then, of course, sell-offs over the past week have driven that number a little bit lower. But it’s nothing that we’re very concerned about. I think we have a lot of great investments with room to run in this portfolio, and I think we’ll see that happen over time.
Over the past month, the AI Secondhand Effects Portfolio has struggled quite a bit, down about 6%. I think in Autopilot, you’ll see that we’re down around 10%. So that’s again client aggregate performance. So I think we’ve just had some unlucky bad buys go into the portfolio, making that performance look a little bit worse than it is. But over the past three months, it’s been nothing too terrible. We’re up about 4.49%, S&P 500 up 8.25%, and as I said, there have been times over the past three months, we’ve been up 17% against the S&P 500, 7%, or up 13% against the S&P 500’s 11%. So again, another one of those areas where we’re looking for high growth. We’re getting that high growth over the long term, but we’re experiencing a little bit of downturn, or I guess a lot of downturn when the market turns, which again, should really come as no surprise to anybody here. We did just recently make some transitioning investments in this portfolio,
We are buying into a couple of companies that are not exactly energy-focused but are a little bit on the other side of things. We’ve made some investments in some more AI, quote-unquote, bottleneck companies here.
So we’re kind of waiting to see how those play out. I think the drop-off this week gives us the opportunity to potentially go a bit deeper into some companies that we wanted to go into before, but were just a little bit worried about, putting big dollars in with things being so expensive. So there is an opportunity for us to change up some of the holdings here. I would like to see how things play out on Monday when the market opens because there is always, I think, this opportunity for things to open up lower, or even if they open up about flat, for us to kind of make those investments if we feel like it’s the right time. I’ve been watching how the portfolios have been performing on InsiderEdge of some of these large AI bet type guys.
I think last week I saw Leopold Aschenbrenner. He runs the Situational Awareness hedge fund. He was up something like 20%, 16%, or 20% last week. Now this week I saw he’s only up 5.62% on just his equity holdings.
So I think there’s something to say there about some of those opportunities maybe coming due. And then another guy that I kind of look to for some of these AI bets is Gavin Baker. He was up, I think, something similar, 16%, 17% last week. Now he’s only up 7%. So he’s got some interesting holdings that I do like quite a bit.
Sienna Corp, being one of them, Micron, being one of them, Amazon, Nvidia, and then Astera Labs, ticker ALAB, is another one. He’s up about 47% on that pick since he reported his holdings. Just a few months ago. So those are things that I’m looking at as well. He’s also got holdings in companies like Coherent Corp, ticker COHR, Lumintium Holdings, I think that’s how you say that, it’s ticker LITE, and then EchoStar Corp, which has just been a huge one for some other investors over the past couple of years, ticker SATS. So those are some areas where I think there is potentially some opportunity to maybe look at or dive into. Another one he’s got Credo, CRDO, and he has a new buy in Apollo Alto Networks, ticker PANW, another one that’s interesting to me. So there’s a lot of opportunity that I see in some of these hedge fund portfolios that I’m really interested in potentially buying into. And now that we’re starting to kind of see these stocks retreat a little bit, I think this is where we’re getting an opportunity to maybe add into a couple of these companies that have had those sell-offs, so.
Researched Stock Bets
The last thing that we have to get into is our stock research. Of course, that’s able to be found on our website. It’s thesimpleside.news/research [https://thesimpleside.news/research], so you should be able to go to that website and see all of our stock research if you’re a paying subscriber.
I think currently we’ve made a total of 25 picks, and I think 7 of those picks are still open. So what that means is we’ve got 18 that have closed, 18 picks that we have either manually closed the stock trade, or we have let the time that we expected the trade to take to expire, or anything of that nature, or we’ve hit our target expected price. So 18 of those trades have closed, and of those 18 closed trades, we have 14 winners, which means we only have 4 losers. We just recently had a couple of trades finish that just did very, very well for us.
One of those was Oracle, ticker ORCL.
This stock just did very, very well for us. We entered at a price of $151. We closed out the trade at a price of $210. That was a 38% return.
The stock before that we closed out on May 19 was Hyperliquid Strategies, ticker PURR.
We entered into the trade at $5.35. We closed out of that at $7.50. Now, I think both of these companies have more upside, and they might end up being trades that we go back into at some point here in the future. I didn’t expect them to do as well as they did, as fast as they did. And so we’ll look at trading back into those companies here soon, especially after the recent sell-off that we saw. I’m not sure exactly how well Oracle did or did not do. I want to say they dropped by something like 10%, and are down from their peak in June by something like 13%.
So it kind of starts to look like an attractive opportunity again. As I said, we had something like 48% returns on that. If we had continued to hold the stock, we would have had a chance of looking at something closer to 60% or 70% returns. So there’s definitely more upside that I see there. But, TBD on exactly how or what those trades will look like when we get back into them. Back to those outstanding trades…
Of those outstanding trades, a majority of them are actually in losing positions right now. I won’t talk about the tickers here. That’s for paying subscribers only. One of them is a major loser, down 54%. One of them, we’re expecting a 33% return, we’re up 16%. Another one, we’re expecting a 20% return, we’re up 5% there. And so I think if I closed out all the trades that we have right now, we would still have majority winners, and our win rate would still be above 50%, and our average return, I think, would still sit somewhere around the high teens, low twenties. So, looking quite good on all of those portfolios as well. Again, something for paying subscribers that they get access to. I think that’s really all that we have for you this week.
MARKET COMMENTARY
At least in regard to our portfolios, the performance, and some of our one-off stock bets that we’ve made. I do, however, real quick, want to quickly recap, sort of what we’ve seen happen at the end of this week, and just quickly comment on whether or not I think it’s going to be something larger or if I think it’s more of a short-term reversal in some of these stock prices. So we’re going to just quickly zoom out and look at the market, and everything that happened from a bit of a more holistic standpoint, which is something I think is very helpful, especially when you see market sell-offs just like this one. We have been climbing every single week for 9 weeks straight in the S&P 500. So a sell-off like this one should really,
As far as I can tell, come as no surprise to nearly anybody. I do think it’s surprising how quickly we saw the Nasdaq sell-off. Probably one of the worst sell-offs we’ve seen since April of 2025. But when you look at the Dow, something with a lot less exposure to tech names, we only saw a 1.35% drop. Again, still one of the worst drops we’ve seen in the past couple of months, but not something violently drastic that would make me super, super worried.
I think what we’re seeing is a lot of profit-taking. We’ve had a lot of stock surges, we’ve seen a lot of shifts in the Fed interest rates, and we’ve seen kind of like this increasing, increasing risk on activity. So you can’t blame anybody for wanting to take some of their money off the table,
Especially when the no-risk assets like bonds are starting to increase their yields. I think that’s also one of the reasons why we’ve seen such a sell-off in Bitcoin. Bitcoin was the highest risk, highest reward asset that people could invest in, and so it made sense to take a lot of risk and get a lot of reward. But a huge issue arises when you stop getting that reward, and you continue to maintain that risk. I think what you’re seeing is people selling out of Bitcoin, and they probably were bringing their money into the market because the risk-reward ratio in Bitcoin was no longer viable relative to the stock market, relative to what we’re going to start seeing in treasuries if rates go up. So it puts you in this weird position where all of a sudden the
Highest and best is no longer the highest or the best, and so you start to see this rotation.
People, of course, are now starting to pick up on the fact that we’re probably going to see a hike in rates, which I don’t think should come as a surprise to anybody. We’ve had high inflation. We haven’t really dealt with it in any way, shape, or form. We’ve just kind of been sitting on it. And so it really shouldn’t come as a surprise that those rates have the potential to be hiked. I think that chance is now sitting at a 43% level. I will say the one thing that’s making me feel like this sell-off is just kind of the market focusing on a couple of different things is the fact that we did see 172,000 jobs added in May. Of course, I think you have to watch for a revision here. Revisions are, in my opinion, almost always in the negative direction. But regardless, that should have been good news for the market. We should have seen stocks probably rise on that news.
So again, surprising that we didn’t. Again, like I just referenced when talking about Bitcoin, the risk-reward is not there as much, so people are selling off. In the same but inverse, it goes for the treasury markets. When yields are going to go up, when yields are high, and you’re seeing a high-risk asset selloff (what we are seeing now).
In my humble opinion, equity and crypto prices are going to remain depressed as capital flows from high-risk positions in the equities markets to lower risk positions in the bond markets where companies can pick up these new higher yields.
My opinion now is not to be in a position of buying or selling. I hold about a quarter of my capital in cash equivalents at the moment, and I like that positioning. I think the recent drop isn’t enough to warrent buying, but we will be watching closely if the market continues to decline towards lossses beyond 10%.
- ¢, Founder of The Simple Side
No Investment Advice or Brokerage; Disclaimer. For the avoidance of doubt [https://www.lawinsider.com/clause/for-the-avoidance-of-doubt], The Simple Side does not provide investment, tax, or legal advice [https://www.lawinsider.com/dictionary/legal-advice]. As with any asset, the value [https://www.lawinsider.com/clause/the-value] of any asset class can go up or down and there can be a substantial risk [https://www.lawinsider.com/dictionary/substantial-risk] that you lose money buying, selling, holding, or investing in any asset. You should carefully consider whether trading or holding assets is suitable for you in light of your financial condition [https://www.lawinsider.com/dictionary/financial-condition].
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