2026 Half Time Report: Hormuz, Havoc and High Rates

2026 Half Time Report: Hormuz, Havoc and High Rates

Host Richard Matthews is joined by Lindsay Hunting (Head of Tanker Projects), Gerrit Stricker (Head of LNG), Sen Raviraj (Lead LPG Analyst) and Dan Gifford (Head of Newbuildings) to review a turbulent first half of 2026. From geopolitical disruption and freight market swings to changing trade flows and record vessel ordering, the panel explores the key forces shaping shipping markets and the outlook for the months ahead. 00:31 2026 Chaos Overview 01:54 Tanker Talk Begins 04:18 Clean vs Dirty Impact 06:06 Contango and China 08:40 Post War Tanker Outlook 10:18 LNG Market Rewiring 14:42 LPG Freight and Product 22:48 Newbuild Ordering Boom 28:40 Key Takeaways and Close

Regional Rivalries: Navigating the Modern Middle East with Sean Matthews

Host Richard Matthews speaks with journalist Sean Matthews on the risk of a “no war, no peace” standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, as US and Iranian tensions simmer below open conflict. They unpack how Gulf states are navigating the pressure, from Qatar’s cautious diplomacy to the UAE’s exposed trade position and Saudi Arabia’s strategic balancing act, alongside rising regional rivalries, proxy conflicts, and a shifting post-American order. About Sean Matthews Covering a wide swath of the Middle East and southeastern Europe, Sean is a journalist and a correspondent with Middle East Eye covering regional politics and security. He has previously written for The Economist, Al Monitor and Al Jazeera English, reporting across Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey and Greece.  He is also the author of The New Byzantines: The Rise of Greece and Return of the Near East, a bold reappraisal of Greece's place in the wider Middle East, available now from all major retailers: https://amzn.eu/d/0i2n6nMr  00:00 Welcome and Guest Intro 00:55 Iran War Stalemate in Hormuz 05:21 Gulf States Winners and Losers 12:18 Pipelines and Bypassing Hormuz 14:42 Saudi-UAE Rift and Yemen Houthis 23:35 Sudan Power Struggle 24:41 Gulf Rivalry in Sudan 27:15 Why Saudis and UAE Clash 29:03 Turkey Fills the Vacuum 34:04 Greece and the New Byzantines

Tanker Turmoil: All Eyes on Iran

Ed Romer-Lee, Lindsay Hunting and Richard Matthews of EA Gibson break down the unfolding Middle East crisis and the extraordinary strain it is placing on global tanker and energy markets, from disrupted oil flows and regional supply shortages to extreme freight volatility and rapidly shifting trade routes. They explore how multiple pressures are colliding at once, including Red Sea disruption, Panama delays and the closure of key chokepoints, creating a level of dislocation few in the industry have seen before. Beyond the immediate crisis, the conversation turns to what may be being overlooked. As attention remains fixed on the Middle East, they examine wider geopolitical risks, structural shifts in energy supply, and the longer-term consequences for freight markets, energy security and investment. With uncertainty still high, the episode considers not just where the market stands today, but what could shape its next phase. 00:25 Middle East Focus 01:07 Unprecedented Volatility 02:33 Supply Shock Explained 04:24 Hormuz Closure Reality 05:23 Why Markets Misprice 10:11 Crude Freight Shifts 13:48 Clean Market Resilience 19:01 Strategic Reserves Risks 20:41 Client Mood And Positioning 24:59 Reopening And Recovery 28:35 Energy Transition Debate 35:23 Other Geopolitical Wildcards 38:29 War End Predictions

A Classic Combination: Talking Dual-Purpose Carriers with Engebret Dahm

Richard Matthews speaks with Engebret Dahm, CEO of Klaveness Combination Carriers, about the rise, fall, and resurgence of tanker/dry-bulk “two-in-one” vessels. Once prominent between the 1970s and 1990s, these ships declined due to stricter safety and vetting standards following major incidents, cargo history limitations, higher complexity and capital costs, and poor economics in an era of low fuel prices. Dahm outlines Klaveness’ journey and current fleet - 17 vessels, expanding to 19 across two core segments: CABU/Carbo ships, which transport liquid caustic soda in one direction and dry bulk cargoes on the return leg (notably Australia and Brazil), and CLEANBU designs, carrying clean petroleum products into the Americas before backhauling grains, sugar, and vegetable oils. The conversation also covers operational complexities such as cargo switching and tank cleaning, early resistance from oil majors, and the broader, more diversified customer base seen today. Dahm highlights the high barriers to entry—from vessel design to crew expertise and systems—as well as the role of efficiency in decarbonisation, the limitations of current CII metrics, ongoing retrofit investments, alternative fuel flexibility, and the value of extending asset life through strong, customer-backed contracts. 00:53 What Is a Combination Carrier 01:53 Heyday and Decline 04:33 KCC Fleet and Origins 07:29 Trading Routes and Optimization 09:29 Operational Challenges and Vetting 14:49 Barriers to Entry and Know How 17:46 Efficiency and Decarbonization Edge 24:51 Alternative Fuels and Retrofits 30:00 Life Extension at 25 Years 35:16 Newbuild Plans and Market Timing

Shipbuilding in a Supercycle with Dan Gifford

Richard Matthews interviews Dan Gifford on the newbuildings market, which remains very strong—especially tankers—with a major VLCC and Suezmax ordering wave (nearly 40 VLCCs ordered so far this year and more in the pipeline).  They explain that newbuild prices are being supported by historically high modern secondhand values, limited ships for sale, tight shipyard capacity (Korean yards booked up to 3.5 years forward), and ongoing equipment bottlenecks such as main engines. Dan expects prices to stay firm and sees “second-wave” demand from owners who delayed ordering but now face fleet renewal needs, with delivery slots stretching into 2028–2029.  They discuss activity in other sectors (Newcastlemax bulker orders due to an overaged fleet; containers cooling; LNG interest returning) and note that many owners sell ships at high prices and reinvest into newbuilds despite the speculative nature of returns. The episode also covers yard capacity expansions, the impact of US policy proposals and earlier USTR concerns on a shift toward Korean yards, and the reduced focus on decarbonization/dual-fuel ordering due to high premiums.  00:00 Welcome to the Podcast 00:24 Meet Dan Gifford 00:35 VLCC Ordering Surge 02:07 Newbuild Prices Explained 04:33 FOMO and Fleet Renewal 06:31 Bulker Market Check 07:57 Speculation and Bubble Talk 13:21 Yard Capacity and Bottlenecks 16:33 US Policy and Geopolitical Risk 20:21 Decarbonization Takes Backseat 25:19 Conclusion