Top Traders Unplugged

From the first futures in 1848 to today’s zero-day options, Cem Karsan, Mandy Xu, and Ed Tom chart how derivatives have moved from the market’s periphery to its center of gravity. At the core is Cboe’s new VIX decomposition tool, which disentangles moves driven by downside hedging, upside speculation, and shifts in the volatility surface. Through episodes like the yuan shock, Volmageddon, and 2024’s “Liberation Day,” they show how positioning can amplify or mute risk, and why vol sometimes rises into rallies. This is a guided tour of volatility’s inner workings, and how reading its structure can reveal the market’s next move before price does. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE [https://dunncapital.com/DUNN%2050-Year%20Book-TTU] ----- Follow Niels on Twitter [https://twitter.com/toptraderslive], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen], YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive] or via the TTU website [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/]. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate]. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/10-reasons-shownotes]. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/]. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com [info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu] or Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW] so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter [https://twitter.com/jam_croissant]. Episode TimeStamps: 59:42 - Introduction to the series 02:21 - Where did options come from and where are we going? 10:20 - The purpose and mechanisms of the VIX decomposition tool 18:55 - The history of the VIX index 23:20 - The beginning of a volmageddon 26:24 - A comparison between 2 recent volatility events (August 2024 and April 2025) 35:03 - Key indicators for understanding risk in markets 42:23 - The current state of 0DTE options 50:29 - The optimal way of using VIX and hedge options Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks/] 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/] 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/] Privacy Policy [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/legal/privacy-policy/] Disclaimer [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/disclaimer/]

When official data starts serving politics, markets lose their anchor. Alan Dunne and Niels examine the quiet shift unfolding as the U.S. edges closer to emerging market behavior - firing statisticians, sidelining inconvenient numbers, and pressuring the Fed ahead of a consequential leadership reshuffle. With labor supply falling, growth stalling, and tariffs acting as stealth taxes, the Fed’s playbook no longer fits the moment. Behind the scenes, hedge fund power brokers position themselves to shape what comes next. Plus, an unvarnished look at trend following’s drawdown, the lazy critiques making the rounds, and why so many allocators still miss the point. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE [https://dunncapital.com/DUNN%2050-Year%20Book-TTU] ----- Follow Niels on Twitter [https://twitter.com/toptraderslive], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen], YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive] or via the TTU website [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/]. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate]. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/10-reasons-shownotes]. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/]. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com [info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu] or Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW] so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter [https://twitter.com/alanjdunne]. Episode TimeStamps: 01:32 - What has caught our attention recently? 08:53 - Dunne's global macro overview 13:31 - Is our understanding of growth and GDP outdated? 17:52 - The Fed is under threat from multiple angles 21:38 - Dunne's impression of Kevin Warsh as a candidate for Fed chairman 26:43 - An odd juxtaposition with hedge fund titans' influences on the Fed 32:35 - Industry performance update 37:30 - Our takeaways from The Wall Street Journal's article on Trend Following 43:35 - Why should investors even consider managed futures in the first place? 45:40 - Has Dunne ever been on the verge of cutting trend? 52:08 - Do long term investors really need diversifiers? Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks/] 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/] 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/] Privacy Policy [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/legal/privacy-policy/] Disclaimer [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/disclaimer/]

What if our most trusted economic statistic is pointing us in the wrong direction? Diane Coyle joins Kevin Coldiron to explore why GDP - long treated as a proxy for progress - now obscures more than it reveals. As economies shift toward services, intangibles, and unpaid digital labor, much of today’s value creation falls outside the frame. Drawing on her new book, The Measure of Progress, Coyle makes the case for a new way of seeing - one that captures time, trust, and the real foundations of growth. The question isn’t how fast we’re moving. It’s whether we’re measuring the right road. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE [https://dunncapital.com/DUNN%2050-Year%20Book-TTU] ----- Follow Niels on Twitter [https://twitter.com/toptraderslive], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen], YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive] or via the TTU website [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/]. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate]. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/10-reasons-shownotes]. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/]. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com [info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu] or Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW] so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack [https://kevincoldiron.substack.com/] & read his Book [https://riseofcarry.com/]. Follow Diane on X [https://x.com/dianecoyle1859?lang=en] and read her book. [https://www.amazon.com/Measure-Progress-Counting-Really-Matters/dp/0691179026] Episode TimeStamps: 02:19 - Introduction to Diane Coyle 03:55 - How did the current systems of national accounts came to be? 06:55 - Why the national statistics doesn't add up 11:22 - The underlying problems of GDP 18:42 - How software pose a problem for measuring GDP and economic activity 23:25 - The challenges of cloud computing 26:39 - What is disintermediation and why is it a problem for economic statistics? 33:35 - The importance of considering time as a variable in economic statistics 38:38 - How technological innovations can mess up our ability to measure GDP 40:45 - Coyle's framework for improving how we measure GDP 46:34 - We are thinking about measuring national capital in the wrong way 48:48 - How human capital is measured 53:13 - What kind of statistics does Coyle value when trying to gauge the economy Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks/] 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/] 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/] Privacy Policy [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/legal/privacy-policy/] Disclaimer [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/disclaimer/]

Mark Rzepczynski joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a conversation shaped by tension between surface calm and deeper dislocation. From copper’s sudden collapse to signs of stress in liquidity and leverage, they explore how market behavior is increasingly defined by fragility, not fundamentals. With Fed policy boxed in, equity optimism rising, and stablecoins quietly redrawing the contours of the monetary system, the challenge for investors isn’t prediction - it’s positioning. They also confront the limits of complexity in models and why, in uncertain regimes, the discipline of doing less may offer the most resilience. This is trend following in context. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE [https://dunncapital.com/DUNN%2050-Year%20Book-TTU] ----- Follow Niels on Twitter [https://twitter.com/toptraderslive], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen], YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive] or via the TTU website [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/]. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate]. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/10-reasons-shownotes]. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/]. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com [info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu] or Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW] so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on Twitter [https://twitter.com/mrzepczynski]. Episode TimeStamps: 01:15 - What has caught our attention recently? 09:08 - The tough situation of Fed independence 10:43 - Industry performance update 14:27 - Mark's analysis of the current trend following performance 21:01 - Are we picking up long term inflation trends? 23:04 - 2025 has given us something rare 26:05 - The core problem that trend followers face today 36:42 - The evolution of stablecoins 43:52 - The definition of financial bubbles is becoming diluted 53:11 - Risk - a feeling or a factor? 58:42 - The seductiveness of complexity 01:01:10 - Key observations from our conversation 01:07:17 - What is up for next week? Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks/] 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/] 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/] Privacy Policy [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/legal/privacy-policy/] Disclaimer [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/disclaimer/]

Steven Bell has seen the macro machine from every angle - Treasury insider, hedge fund manager, and chief economist. In this wide-ranging conversation with Alan Dunne, he traces the quiet erosion of economic orthodoxy and why AI, not tariffs, may prove the more destabilizing force. Bell explains how Fed independence is fraying, why wage dynamics matter more than headline inflation, and what investors miss when they over-index on models. With stories from trading floors and policy rooms alike, this episode captures a rare perspective: someone who’s watched markets evolve, not just from charts, but from inside the decisions that moved them. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE [https://dunncapital.com/DUNN%2050-Year%20Book-TTU] ----- Follow Niels on Twitter [https://twitter.com/toptraderslive], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen], YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive] or via the TTU website [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/]. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate]. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/10-reasons-shownotes]. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/]. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com [info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu] or Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW] so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter [https://twitter.com/alanjdunne]. Follow Steven on LinkedIn. [https://www.linkedin.com/in/steven-bell-61b06817/] Episode TimeStamps: 02:20 - Introduction to Steven Bell 05:37 - Has the challenge of forecasting economics changed? 10:27 - Was it easier to be a money manager back in the days? 13:11 - Is emotion and hysteria taking over markets? 16:48 - Tariffs disappearing? Forget it 21:41 - The economic impact of the recent CPI data 24:38 - How tariffs will impact workers and productivity 28:54 - Bell's outlook for inflation 32:15 - Do deficits even matter? 36:51 - How messy will the Fed's handling of inflation be? 44:16 - Who is a likely replacement for Powell? 45:11 - An AI productivity boom 49:14 - Bell's outlook for the economy 56:32 - Navigating the consensus view on the dollar as an economist 01:01:06 - Macro advise for other investors Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks/] 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/] 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/] Privacy Policy [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/legal/privacy-policy/] Disclaimer [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/disclaimer/]