S2EP70 | 24,000 Broke. Volatility Is Rising. The Half-Year's Biggest Expiry Won't Pin Like They Think | 30th June Thursday

S2EP74 | The Foreigner Bought ₹1,355 Crore. The Hedge Stayed On. Tuesday We Settle | 6th July Monday

Wall Street was dark on Friday, so India closed the week on its own, green for a third straight day and above 24,200 for the first time this move: Nifty 24,270.85, with the fear gauge down at 11.83. But the real story sits under the tape. On Friday the foreign desk flipped to a net buyer, ₹1,355 crore in cash, and trimmed its index-futures short again. Yet it stayed net long 5,47,349 stock futures while holding a short-index, long-put book. It bought the market and kept the seatbelt on. Inside: the full Pro, FII and Client positioning, the exact option book, the open-interest map into Tuesday's expiry, and the levels that matter, 24,000 the anchor, 24,300 the gear-change, 24,500 the ceiling. POV: buy the dips, respect 24,200, keep a cheap hedge. Educational, not investment advice.

S2EP73 | The Jobs Number Was Weak. The First Move Was Relief. And Today, America Is Shut | 3rd July Friday

America added just 57,000 jobs in June against 115,000 expected, with the two prior months revised down another 74,000. The first reflex on Wall Street wasn't fear but relief: bond yields fell, bets on another rate hike got cut, and the Dow poked a fresh record, though the move stayed choppy. Episode 73 unpacks that reflex: the reaction function, or why a weak jobs report can be greeted with relief when what the market fears most is the central bank staying tough. Plus the setup for a Friday like no other this week, with US markets closed for Independence Day, so India trades its own tape. What's inside: - The June US jobs report: 57,000 added, unemployment 4.2 percent, but for the wrong reason - Why a soft number brought relief instead of fear, and the honest catch that stops you misusing it - India's Thursday close: Nifty 24,175.70, Sensex 77,502.12, both holding above the line - The IT snap-back: the sector went from worst to first, Infosys up 5 percent, but it is only 1 day - Flows: domestic funds buying (about 1,784 crore), foreign selling drying up (about 312 crore, and net buyers on the NSE alone) - The rupee near a record low, a softer dollar, and what could give it relief - 24,000 as support, 24,200 as the near lid, and why IT is the tell today - The week ahead: Nifty's Tuesday settlement and TCS opening earnings season Levels close (NSE / BSE, 02-Jul): Nifty 50 24,175.70 (+0.71%), Sensex 77,502.12 (+0.75%). Nifty IT +3.6%. India VIX 12.21 (down about 8%). Stream free on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com]. Also on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music and YouTube. This is educational content, not investment advice. HASHTAGS #TheTanmayEdge #Nifty #Sensex #JobsReport #StockMarket #IT #RupeeCase #PreMarket #Trading #Rupee LINKS Stream: https://rupeecase.com [https://rupeecase.com] Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Amazon Music | YouTube @TanmayKurtkoti

S2EP72 | A Gap-Up Into Expiry Day: 24,000 Is the Floor, and the Jobs Report Waits for Tonight | 2nd July Thursday

The Nifty reclaimed 24,000 at 24,006 — and this morning GIFT is pointing to a gap-up open near 24,150, a clear 150 points above the level that broke last week. But today stacks two catalysts on the same day: the Sensex weekly expiry during our session, and the US June jobs report after our close (a day early). Here's how to trade a gap-up on expiry day — why 24,000 is now the floor, why the Sensex hinges entirely on 77,000, and why buying the dips beats chasing the gap when the real move waits for tonight. Plus a plain-English breakdown of "event premium": why protection stays expensive into a scheduled announcement even when the tape is dead calm. In this episode: 0:00 — The reclaim, and a gap-up into a two-catalyst day 1:15 — Global: US tech soft again, Asia split, rupee weak on 95, GIFT gap-up near 24,150 2:30 — Sensex expiry today + US jobs tonight: why it matters 3:45 — The money: pros long and hedged, foreigners short, the crowd exposed 5:00 — Levels: 24,000 the floor, 24,200 the cap; Sensex 77,000 the line into expiry 6:15 — Education: event premium — why protection stays priced for a shock 7:15 — The plan: buy dips to 24,050–24,100, respect 77,000, keep protection, let tonight decide Data: NSE, BSE. Nifty 24,005.85 (+0.59%) | Sensex 76,922.64 (+0.58%) | GIFT ~24,183 pre-open | 1-Jul close / 2-Jul pre-market. I'm building RupeeCase — India's systematic investing terminal. Track it live and stream every episode free on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com]. Not investment advice. For education only. =========================== HASHTAGS =========================== #TheTanmayEdge #Nifty #Sensex #StockMarketIndia #NSE #BSE #Trading #OptionsTrading #USJobsReport #NFP #Expiry #GIFTNifty #RupeeCase #PreMarket #FIIDII #Nifty50 =========================== LINKS =========================== Stream free: https://rupeecase.com [https://rupeecase.com] Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Amazon Music | YouTube X/Instagram: @TanmayKurtkoti

S2EP71 | 4,000 Became Resistance. IT Hit a 3-Year Low. But Most Stocks Closed Green. | 1st July Wed

The biggest expiry of the half-year was supposed to lock the market onto 24,000. It didn't. The index touched it, lost it, and drifted down to settle at 23,865 — while underneath the headline, more stocks rose than fell. Day 1 of the July series opens caught between a broken-down 24,000 — now resistance — and a 23,800 support that held, with the damage concentrated in one wounded sector: IT, now at a 3-year low. And it opens on a gap-up: GIFT Nifty is pointing straight back to 24,000 after US technology rallied overnight, so the day's first question is whether we reclaim the very level that just broke. In this episode: - Why the index closed red while the mid and small caps closed green - The one sector that dragged a cap-weighted index lower on a positive-breadth day - Foreign desks selling, domestic desks buying — the bid holding this market up - The 23,800 to 24,000 box, and what a clean close on either side opens - The gap-up test of 24,000 — why a US-tech-led reclaim would flip the whole character - Why US jobs data on Thursday is the real catalyst this week - The idea that saves you from panicking at a red screen: the index is a weighted average, not a headcount of the market Today's plan: trade the range with an upside tilt — buy dips toward 23,800, watch for a reclaim of 24,000 that squeezes the shorts, and keep a little cheap protection into Thursday's Sensex expiry and US jobs data. Chapters: 00:00 The expiry that didn't settle on its number 00:35 Global tape and the morning setup 01:30 Who's buying, who's selling 03:00 Red index, green market — the IT story 04:15 The 23,800 to 24,000 box 05:15 Why the index number isn't the market 06:30 The plan, and Thursday's test Data: NSE and BSE official closing figures. Educational content only — not investment advice. Stream every episode free on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com], or listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, and YouTube. ================ HASHTAGS ================ #TheTanmayEdge #Nifty #Sensex #StockMarketIndia #Trading #FIIDII #NiftyIT #JulySeries #RupeeCase #MarketBreadth ================ LINKS ================ Listen free: https://rupeecase.com [https://rupeecase.com] Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Amazon Music | YouTube RupeeCase — India's systematic investing terminal: https://rupeecase.com [https://rupeecase.com]

S2EP70 | 24,000 Broke. Volatility Is Rising. The Half-Year's Biggest Expiry Won't Pin Like They Think | 30th June Thursday

Last episode the pros bought volatility at the lows. One session later, the trap sprang — Nifty lost 24,000, closing 23,946, and India VIX ROSE to 13.56 on a down day. Today is the heaviest settlement on the calendar: the Nifty weekly, the Nifty and Bank Nifty monthly, the June quarterly, and the half-yearly long-dated and LEAPS series all expire on one close. Tanmay breaks down why a RISING fear gauge into a max-settlement expiry flips the entire expiry-day playbook — why the max-pain magnet at 24,000 loses its grip, where the real support now sits, and how the smart money just repositioned. In this episode: - Why Monday's breakdown was broader than the headline (2,036 stocks down vs 1,330 up) — and India fell while the world rallied - The defensive rotation: autos and banks out (Bank Nifty lost 58,000), pharma and power in - The positioning shift: after 24,000 broke, the pros CUT their upside calls and kept their puts; foreign money pressed shorts and bought puts; the crowd is short 7,46,908 puts - The levels: 24,000 flips to resistance and max pain, 23,800 is the new support, the straddle prices only ~160 - The education: a rising VIX into a monthly/quarterly/LEAPS expiry detaches price from max pain — falling vol, trust the pin; rising vol, respect the trend - The plan: buy the dip at 23,800, own cheap optionality, don't sell the straddle into a rising fear gauge Data: NSE, BSE, NSDL official. Not investment advice. Stream free on rupeecase.com [http://rupeecase.com]. Also on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, YouTube. HASHTAGS: #TheTanmayEdge #Nifty #BankNifty #Expiry #OptionChain #IndiaVIX #Volatility #FIIDII #ProVsClient #RupeeCase #StockMarketIndia #Trading LINKS: Listen / stream free: https://rupeecase.com [https://rupeecase.com] RupeeCase — India's systematic investing terminal: https://rupeecase.com [https://rupeecase.com] X: https://x.com/TanmayKurtkoti [https://x.com/TanmayKurtkoti]