AVAV Stock: Record Quarter, Full-Year Loss - Q4 FY2026
AVAV (AeroVironment) reported Q4 FY2026 earnings on 2026-06-29. Stock jumped 20.2% on the print. Here's the breakdown:
Is AVAV a buy, hold, or sell after this quarter? In this AeroVironment (AVAV) Q4 FY2026 earnings breakdown we cover the revenue and EPS print, the 8-quarter trend, segment detail, the free-cash-flow bridge, forward guidance, peer valuation, and management & earnings quality - ending with a clear price-aware Buy / Hold / Avoid Call and a Wall Street consensus comparison. If you follow Industrials stocks or AVAV earnings, this is the Q4 FY2026 deep dive.
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THE CALL: HOLD (3/5 conviction, MODERATE)
- CURRENT @ $165.85 - HOLD
- BUY below $130.00 with $110.00 stop
- AVOID above $230.00
TRIGGER: Two consecutive quarters of positive GAAP EPS and book-to-bill staying above 1.2, OR organic (ex-acquisition) revenue growth above 15%.
WINDOW: Through Q2 FY2027 earnings (roughly December 2026)
TRACKER: charged-alpha.com/calls/AVAV
WALL STREET CONSENSUS
- Ratings: 0 Strong Buy / 16 Buy / 12 Hold / 0 Sell / 0 Strong Sell - BUY
- Median 12-month price target: $240.00 (range $205 - $330)
- Charged Alpha vs consensus: IN LINE, MORE CAUTIOUS
THESIS
AeroVironment is the U.S. leader in tactical loitering munitions and small drones, now diversified into space, counter-UAS and directed energy via BlueHalo, riding a structural drone-warfare upcycle.
Bull lever: If the $1.2B backlog and $2.7B of bookings convert to GAAP profit and the SCDE segment scales its margin, the company grows into a still-rich multiple and the stock re-rates off a beaten-down base.
Key risk: SCAR proved a single program loss can wipe out a year. Add a rich valuation, negative full-year cash flow, heavy goodwill, and securities litigation, and there is little margin for error if the back-half-loaded FY27 guide slips.
QUALITY CHECK
- Management quality grade: B (Nawabi executed a transformational, well-timed BlueHalo merger and delivered the promised record Q4, but the all-stock deal nearly doubled the share count and the goodwill it creat.)
- Earnings quality grade: C+ (The headline beat leans on large non-GAAP adjustments - Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.84 versus GAAP $1.25 - and the full year was a GAAP loss with negative free cash flow.)
CHAPTERS
0:00 Hook
0:14 The Year in One Chart
0:50 The Print
1:34 Beat Decomposition
2:08 The Trend
2:53 The Segments
3:35 The FCF Bridge
4:12 Margin Quality
4:58 Guidance & The Narrative Diff
5:48 Catalyst Calendar
6:14 Peer Dot-Plot
6:44 Valuation
7:21 Management & Earnings Quality
8:35 The Call - Verdict
9:17 The Call - Evidence
9:52 The Call - Supporting Figures
KEY METRICS - Q4 FY2026
- Revenue: $0.64B (YoY +133.0%, beat est by +15.4%)
- EPS: $1.84 (vs $1.46 est, beat +26.0%)
- Operating margin: 9.9%
- Free cash flow: $0.07B (11.3% margin)
NARRATIVE DIFF - what changed in management tone
- Prior call: "While our third quarter results were impacted by revenue timing and adjustments in our Space business, demand for our unique solutions remains robust, with order flow and backlog growth setting the stage for record fourth quarter revenue and a solid start to fiscal year 2027."
- This call: "Fiscal 2026 marked a transformational year for AV, which included the completion of our largest acquisition, meaningful investments toward diversifying our portfolio in critical areas aligned to our customer's highest priorities, and the strongest financial performance in our history."
- Tone shift: In March, after the SCAR contract termination and a Q3 loss, CEO Wahid Nawabi promised a record Q4 - and delivered exactly that. The tone moved from damage-control on the Space business to declaring the year transformational on the strength of the BlueHalo integration and a record quarter.
DATA SOURCES
- FMP (financialmodelingprep.com)
- AeroVironment Q4 FY2026 press release + earnings call
DISCLAIMER
This is for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Charged Alpha does not have a position in AVAV. Do your own research before any investment decision.
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