“The Quadrillion-Dollar Disagreement on AI and the Economy” by Anton Shenk

“Chinese Audiences Are Reading Western AI Safety Discourse” by Calvin Duff

In January, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published “The Adolescence of Technology,” an essay somberly assessing the risks posed by advanced AI. The day after, an influential WeChat account, AI Era, shared a breathless summary for its mainland Chinese audience: “Amodei warns that with AGI approaching, humanity is about to gain powers beyond imagination. But this power is also a sword of Damocles hanging over the heads of men...” AI Era's summary was faithful, earnest, and engaged with Amodei's essay on its own terms. It also describes Amodei as “gentle and elegant”—remarkably sympathetic treatment of one of the most vocal advocates of US chip export controls against China, and of an essay that describes the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) as an existential threat with a clear path to an “AI-enabled totalitarian nightmare.” The pattern repeated in April, after US Senator Bernie Sanders hosted a panel on AI existential risk featuring leading Chinese academics Xue Lan and Yi Zeng. The event was picked up in a high-profile Chinese commentary syndicated across multiple sites, stressing Sanders's concerns about existential risk and proposals for an international treaty similar to Cold War nuclear deals. Amodei's and Sanders's treatment in the Chinese media landscape is [...] --- Outline: (02:04) How Western AI Safety Work Is Discussed in Chinese Online Media (05:49) The Systematic Scrubbing of China (08:19) A Window of Opportunity --- First published: May 18th, 2026 Source: https://aifrontiersmedia.substack.com/p/chinese-audiences-are-reading-western [https://aifrontiersmedia.substack.com/p/chinese-audiences-are-reading-western?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration] --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO [https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=center_for_ai_safety&utm_campaign=ai_narration]. --- Images from the article: Bar chart showing [https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CMKH!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd0f53987-3f42-4743-a441-251270102dc3_2048x1227.png]https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CMKH!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd0f53987-3f42-4743-a441-251270102dc3_2048x1227.png ---------------------------------------- Bar chart titled [https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!mY4h!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8317b152-0d2a-4f1c-b4b8-718acd2a62d0_2048x1222.png]https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!mY4h!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8317b152-0d2a-4f1c-b4b8-718acd2a62d0_2048x1222.png ---------------------------------------- Bar chart titled [https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eThH!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4c09d940-baa0-46d5-9d63-0c37c1dc284d_2048x1222.png]https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eThH!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4c09d940-baa0-46d5-9d63-0c37c1dc284d_2048x1222.png Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts [https://pocketcasts.com/], or another podcast app.

“The Quadrillion-Dollar Disagreement on AI and the Economy” by Anton Shenk

In the three years since OpenAI launched ChatGPT, economists and AI researchers have published forecasts projecting that, over the next decade, AI will add to annual growth by amounts ranging from as little as 0.1% to as much as 30%. By 2035, the gap between these forecasts nears a quadrillion dollars: an amount that exceeds a decade's worth of current global output. The Quadrillion-Dollar Delta Projected US GDP Under Alternative AI Growth Estimates, 2026-2035 Source: 2025 Q4 US GDP from Federal Reserve Economic Data. Estimates sourced from Goldman Sachs (2023), McKinsey (2023), Acemoglu (2024), OECD (2024), Korinek & Suh (2024), Arnon (2025), Cowen (2025), Clark (2025), and Epoch AI (2025). Not all estimates model US GDP directly: Epoch AI models Gross World Product; McKinsey models productivity across 47 countries; Korinek & Suh calibrate to advanced-economy baselines. Growth rates from these sources are applied to the US GDP baseline for comparability. Where ranges are reported, the median is used. Where excess growth is reported rather than levels, a baseline 2% GDP growth is assumed. Skeptical forecasts describe a future world barely different from today's: one with modest productivity gains and manageable labor-market adjustments, all governed with incremental policy tweaks. Other forecasts [...] --- Outline: (03:11) Question 1: Which Jobs Can AI Actually Automate? (04:19) The Skeptical Case: AI Faces a Hard Tasks Wall (07:07) The Explosive Case: Difficult Tasks Can Be Surmounted (09:25) Question 2: Can the Economy Absorb What AI Companies Produce? (10:13) The Skeptical Case: Institutions Are Stickier Than Markets (11:49) The Explosive Case: Markets Fund What Works (13:55) Question 3: Can AI Automate Innovation Itself? (14:12) The Skeptical Case: AI Will Provide a One-Time Economic Boost (15:27) The Explosive Case: AI Will Produce Ideas (19:13) Indicators to Resolve These Questions --- First published: May 11th, 2026 Source: https://aifrontiersmedia.substack.com/p/the-quadrillion-dollar-disagreement [https://aifrontiersmedia.substack.com/p/the-quadrillion-dollar-disagreement?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration] --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO [https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=center_for_ai_safety&utm_campaign=ai_narration]. --- Images from the article: Graph showing US GDP projections from various sources compared to 2026 baseline through 2036. [https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rjE7!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc97f9575-7f2d-4886-9dd2-0347ecc5bf45_1448x928.png]https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rjE7!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc97f9575-7f2d-4886-9dd2-0347ecc5bf45_1448x928.png Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts [https://pocketcasts.com/], or another podcast app.

“Catalytic Regulation: Incentivizing Safety During a Regulatory Drought” by Yonathan Arbel

Yonathan Arbel — April 20, 2026 In 1959, a midsize Swedish car company did something its competitors thought was myopic, if not reckless. It effectively open-sourced the three-point seat belt, the greatest safety innovation in automotive history. The prevailing industry wisdom at the time was blunt: “Safety doesn’t sell.” Just three years prior, Ford had offered seat belts for a $9 surcharge, as part of its 1956 Lifeguard campaign; despite Robert McNamara's championing of the program, the safety push failed to give Ford a competitive edge. Henry Ford II reportedly grumbled, as he was dialing back its campaign, “McNamara is selling safety, but Chevrolet is selling cars.” But Volvo was neither myopic nor reckless; in fact, it saw further than any of its competitors. While they competed fiercely for dominance in a race for horsepower, engine efficiency, and design, Volvo could see that consumers cared about safety and reliability, too. The bet paid off: Volvo became one of the most recognized automotive brands in the world. According to Volvo, seat belts have since saved over 1 million lives. American AI needs its Volvo moment. The aim of catalytic regulation is to enable this moment. It is a family of [...] --- Outline: (02:24) Why Catalytic Regulation? (09:13) From Principles to Practice: The Catalytic Regulation Bundle (09:34) Corporate Incentives (12:26) Demand-Side Incentives (15:10) Market Guarantees (17:06) The Power of Prestige (20:39) A Seat Belt for AI (21:33) Discussion about this post (21:37) Ready for more? --- First published: April 20th, 2026 Source: https://aifrontiersmedia.substack.com/p/catalytic-regulation-incentivizing [https://aifrontiersmedia.substack.com/p/catalytic-regulation-incentivizing?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration] --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO [https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=center_for_ai_safety&utm_campaign=ai_narration].

“The Right Way to Sell Chips to China” by Alasdair Phillips-Robins, Noah Tan

Last December, President Trump announced that the United States would allow Nvidia to sell its powerful H200 AI processors to customers in China. Officials in the Trump administration have long argued that the best way to win the AI race is to promote the export of US technology around the world, not to restrict it. Selling H200s, the administration claims, will boost the market share of US chip-makers while preserving the US hardware lead. Critics warn of national security risks to selling advanced chips, but the administration appears committed to its course. Taking a pro-export framework as a given, policymakers can balance between market share and national security by managing a quantity that currently doesn’t receive enough attention: the United States’ relative compute advantage. Total AI compute for a country is calculated as its stock of AI processors weighted by the effectiveness of each processor; the US currently enjoys a roughly 10-to-1 compute advantage over China. That advantage matters because more compute can support more domestic R&D, more customers served by American AI products, and more ability for the US government to influence the development and use of AI. Relative compute advantage is about the quantity of chips as [...] --- Outline: (02:20) A Return to Relative Advantage (05:46) Selling Chips Without Selling Out (08:17) Making Relative Advantage Work in Practice (11:18) Discussion about this post (11:22) Ready for more? --- First published: April 13th, 2026 Source: https://aifrontiersmedia.substack.com/p/the-right-way-to-sell-chips-to-china [https://aifrontiersmedia.substack.com/p/the-right-way-to-sell-chips-to-china?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration] --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO [https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=center_for_ai_safety&utm_campaign=ai_narration].

“The Robot in Your Living Room Has No Rulebook” by Tristan Ingold

In late 2025, Figure AI placed its third-generation humanoid robot into real homes for alpha testing. The Figure 03 has hands with 16 degrees of freedom, tactile sensors that detect forces as small as three grams, and foam-padded limbs designed for safe operation around people. It charges wirelessly and responds to natural language commands. It can learn in real time, adapting to its environment. A few months earlier, Unitree started shipping the R1, a home-capable robot priced at $4,900. TIME included it among the Best Inventions of 2025. You can order one today and have it in weeks: it's the most commercially accessible humanoid robot on the planet. These robots have graduated from prototyping. They’re consumer products with price tags, shipping dates, and marketing campaigns. It's easy to imagine a world in which every family relies on one or several robots to conduct daily life, especially as AI becomes more capable. But what rules govern a learning, physically capable, always-on AI device operating inside someone's home? Unfortunately, we’re far from a coherent answer. Existing US regulations were developed with Roombas and robot arms in mind, not autonomous humanoids, resulting in a confusing patchwork of obligations. That doesn’t mean the [...] --- Outline: (01:56) What Robotics In 2030 May Look Like (04:15) The Governance Gap (10:50) What Should the US Do? (14:42) Conclusion (15:51) Discussion about this post (15:54) Ready for more? --- First published: March 27th, 2026 Source: https://aifrontiersmedia.substack.com/p/the-robot-in-your-living-room-has [https://aifrontiersmedia.substack.com/p/the-robot-in-your-living-room-has?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration] --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO [https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=center_for_ai_safety&utm_campaign=ai_narration]. --- Images from the article: Agility Robotics’s Digit robot has already been deployed to commercial logistics facilities. Source __T3A_LINK_IN_POST__. [https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g1Gr!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa8d1e355-097e-4a61-aea1-dab31dea766c_1500x844.png]https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g1Gr!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa8d1e355-097e-4a61-aea1-dab31dea766c_1500x844.png ---------------------------------------- Home robots which collect and learn from household data may be subject to regulations designed for completely different products. Pictured: Sunday’s Memo robot. [https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!axkr!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F96a593f4-19a4-45d2-b9ea-9ed406dde12c_600x400.jpeg]https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!axkr!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F96a593f4-19a4-45d2-b9ea-9ed406dde12c_600x400.jpeg Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts [https://pocketcasts.com/], or another podcast app.