Prediction markets and World Cup wagers

How AI plays into World Cup security

Even at the best of times, highly populated mega-events are a public safety concern. Much more so at a paranoid moment when the host nation is at war, has a fair share of geopolitical enemies and a history of gun violence, plus an abundance of natural disaster hotspots. Way back in episode 1 [https://talibvisram.substack.com/p/americas-cup-now-has-a-podcast] of this podcast series—way back in September!—Talib welcomed former DHS staffer Juliette Kayyem to talk about the broad security challenges at the World Cup. In this episode, he delves deeper into some security logistics by speaking to Michael Martin, founder and CEO of RapidSOS [https://rapidsos.com/], a company that works to enhance emergency dispatch efforts by connecting users’ smartphone data to these public and private security services—with the help of AI. They get into how that all works, especially on the large scale of the World Cup, how host city infrastructures play into the system, and what data privacy concerns we should have. 00:00 Intro 03:36 RapidSOS Explained 04:41 Real Time Response Example 06:26 Fixing Legacy 911 Data 08:35 Where Data Comes From 12:12 World Cup Host City Support 12:48 Threats At Mega Events 15:05 Medical Emergency Walkthrough 17:44 Active Shooters 19:30 Geopolitical Risk 21:30 City Infrastructure And Crowd Modeling 22:34 Evacuation Decision Flow 26:21 Security Ecosystem Roles 28:08 Drones for Rapid Response 30:05 Privacy and Civil Liberties 33:30 Natural Disaster Readiness 36:28 Protests and Public Safety 38:13 Visitor Safety Checklist Get full access to America's Cup at talibvisram.substack.com/subscribe [https://talibvisram.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Sweden, meet Texas: How teams choose their base camps

Last week, when the tiny island nation of Cape Verde chose Tampa, Florida as their team base camp, 48 of 48 of those camps were finalized. These FIFA-approved camps—training facilities and accommodations—are now set all over the country, from Boston (France), to Nashville (Japan), to Mesa, Arizona (Turkey), to San Diego (Switzerland and New Zealand). Securing camps was a months-long process, with both teams and facilities setting preferences, and factoring in aspects like travel and heat. Sweden got paired up with Frisco, Texas, a city north of Dallas that is one of the fastest-growing hubs in America. Talib speaks to Gloria Salinas and Josh Dill, economic development and tourism representatives, to discuss the city’s growth, its positioning as “Sports City USA,” how the unlikely Sweden-Frisco alliance came together—and what travelers from abroad might expect if they, like Sweden, choose Frisco. 00:00 Intro 01:36 Where Teams Set Up Shop 02:20 Surprising Camp Locations 04:26 Meet Frisco Leaders 05:39 Frisco Growth and Industry 09:14 Sports City USA Explained 11:36 Cowboys Club 14:46 Sports Tourism Strategy 16:03 How Base Camp Bidding Works 18:13 Travel Logistics and Budgets 19:31 FIFA Rules and Community Events 20:50 Heat Culture and Hotels 24:32 Residents and Local Business Plans 29:00 Hotel Demand and Visitor Mix 33:31 Getting Around DFW 34:21 Long Term Economic Legacy 36:58 Where to Eat in Frisco Get full access to America's Cup at talibvisram.substack.com/subscribe [https://talibvisram.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Underdog Story, Part 2: Haiti's defiant return

There may be no nation facing the brute force of a combination of America’s harshest policies in 2026, from visa bans to ICE raids, quite as much as Haiti. Pair that with being the recipient of Donald Trump’s most unfounded rhetoric, including that Haitians in Ohio were eating cats and dogs [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5qoaj3YndQ]. Yet, Haiti has qualified for the second World Cup ever, and the first in 52 years. Lots of Haitian supporters won’t be able to come to support due to travel bans. And the coach, Sébastien Migné, reportedly has never step foot in Haiti due to safety issues. Haiti is the true definition of an underdog, both politically and athletically: The Athletic [https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7162043/2026/04/01/world-cup-48-teams-rankings/] recently ranked [https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7162043/2026/04/01/world-cup-48-teams-rankings/] the nation 48 of the 48 countries at the World Cup. Talib speaks to Sam Pierre, the executive director of the Haitian-American Caucus, to set the record straight. In a mire of mistruths, they discuss the realities in Haiti, the Haitian-American diaspora, what the World Cup means to the community, and working with the White House—and some of his answers may surprise you. 00:00 Haiti Underdog Spirit 00:35 Intro 04:02 Meet Sam Pierre 05:21 Haitian Diaspora 06:49 Work And Success 08:20 Haiti Reality Check 12:45 History And Inequality 16:39 World Cup Pride 20:46 Travel Ban Fallout 24:13 Who Can Attend Games 25:10 TPS Explained Simply 28:24 Trump Rhetoric 33:06 Working With Government 37:31 ICE Risks At World Cup 41:49 World Cup Pride Moment 44:57 Underdog Predictions 46:44 Join Haitian Caucus Get full access to America's Cup at talibvisram.substack.com/subscribe [https://talibvisram.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Underdog Story, Part 1: Is it hard to root for the USA in 2026?

Almost exactly a year ago, journalist Beau Duré wrote an article for [https://www.theguardian.com/football/2025/apr/02/usmnt-nations-league-unlikeable]The Guardian [https://www.theguardian.com/football/2025/apr/02/usmnt-nations-league-unlikeable] titled “The US men’s national team aren’t just underachievers; they’re unlikeable.” A year on, he hasn’t budged from that stance. It’s something Talib has been thinking about as the U.S. has increasingly antagonized the rest of the world in the past year. But it’s a strange contrast to be the bully off the soccer field, and the underdog on the field. The USMNT has always been a plucky outsider to root for in the World Cup, a scrappy dark horse against the football powerhouses and sometimes winning against all odds. So in 2026, it begs some philosophical questions. Is it hard to root for Team USA in 2026? Are they still underdogs? Are they likable enough [https://www.politico.com/video/2013/01/obamas-likable-enough-moment-with-hillary-009551], and does that even matter? Is it unfair to put this on players who have nothing to do with policies—or do they have a responsibility to speak up? Talib speaks to Duré to unpack these questions—and also about his 2019 book, Why the U.S. Mean Will Never Win the World Cup [https://www.amazon.com/Why-U-S-Will-Never-World/dp/1538127814]. [https://www.amazon.com/Why-U-S-Will-Never-World/dp/1538127814] 00:00 Intro 04:44 Meet Bo Duré 05:57 Why USMNT Feels Unlikable 07:21 Scrappy Era Memories 10:33 American Cultural Backlash 13:53 Media Personalities Debate 18:05 Anthems and Fighter Jets 21:20 Should Players Speak Out? 23:01 Athletes And Education 23:50 Immigration 25:33 Team Form And Mentality 28:51 World Cup Expectations 32:15 Youth Soccer Structure 33:29 Travel And Tournament Chaos 34:39 Pay Disputes And Backlash 36:21 Hope For Future Fans Get full access to America's Cup at talibvisram.substack.com/subscribe [https://talibvisram.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Prediction markets and World Cup wagers

The World Cup hasn’t traditionally been a favorite event for U.S. sports bettors. But as North America prepares to host, the gambling landscape is a lot different. Since 2018, sports betting has been legal, and 10% of Americans partake. Punters may wage $1.5 billion on the tournament this summer. Then there’s been the inescapable emergence of prediction markets: on the face of it, simply another form of gambling, but treated by the federal government as futures trading with little regulation. It’s a ripe moment for both controversial industries to try and drive more soccer fans to their phones. Of course, FIFA has gotten in on the act, with its own very strange and politically entangled prediction market model, reported here by [https://frontofficesports.com/fifa-world-cup-abu-dhabi-blockchain-prediction-market/]Front Office Sports [https://frontofficesports.com/fifa-world-cup-abu-dhabi-blockchain-prediction-market/]. Talib speaks with Dustin Gouker, betting consultant and author of the Substack newsletters Event Horizon [https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/] and The Closing Line [https://closingline.substack.com/], to unpack the laissez-faire state of gambling in 2026, and how it might meet the beautiful game. 00:00 Intro 00:40 US Gambling Explosion Since 2018 04:20 How Sports Betting Got Legal 07:54 The Rise of Prediction Markets 10:04 How Big Are They Now 12:21 Risks Addiction And Manipulation 15:01 Betting On War And Death 16:20 Political Ties 17:29 Why World Cup Betting Could Surge 20:21 FIFA Prediction Platform Mystery 24:51 Legal Fights and Political Winds 29:19 Prediction Markets vs Polls Get full access to America's Cup at talibvisram.substack.com/subscribe [https://talibvisram.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]