Maximum Pressure, Minimum Progress: Iran’s Nuclear Gamble

Mini Episode: The Fallout of the Chornobyl Strike

Kim Barker and Brendan Hoffman, “How a Cheap Drone Punctured Chernobyl’s 40,000-Ton Shield,” The New York Times, March 25, 2025, sec. World, https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/25/world/europe/drone-chernobyl-shield-ukraine-war.html [https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/25/world/europe/drone-chernobyl-shield-ukraine-war.html]; IAEA, “Frequently Asked Chernobyl Questions,” Text (IAEA, November 7, 2016), https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/chernobyl/faqs [https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/chernobyl/faqs]; ILLIA NOVIKOV and EFREM LUKATSKY, “A Drone Pierced the Outer Shell of Ukraine’s Chernobyl Nuclear Plant. Radiation Levels Are Normal,” AP News, February 14, 2025, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-chernobyl-zelenskyy-71d781dbd66754d0a548edd388f3447a [https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-chernobyl-zelenskyy-71d781dbd66754d0a548edd388f3447a]; Nuclear Newswire, “Fires Extinguished at Chernobyl Following Drone Strike,” Nuclear Newswire, March 13, 2025, https://www.ans.org/news/2025-03-13/article-6852/fires-extinguished-at-chernobyl-following-drone-strike/ [https://www.ans.org/news/2025-03-13/article-6852/fires-extinguished-at-chernobyl-following-drone-strike/]; UNN, “Minister of the Environment: The Dismantling of the Sarcophagus Is Postponed Due to the Russian Attack on the Chernobyl NPP | УНН,” Ukrainian National News (UNN), April 12, 2025, https://unn.ua/en/news/minister-of-the-environment-the-dismantling-of-the-sarcophagus-is-postponed-due-to-the-russian-federations-attack-on-the-chernobyl-nuclear-power-plant [https://unn.ua/en/news/minister-of-the-environment-the-dismantling-of-the-sarcophagus-is-postponed-due-to-the-russian-federations-attack-on-the-chernobyl-nuclear-power-plant]; Yurii Kovalenko, “Ukraine Seeking Solutions for Damaged Chernobyl Confinement Vessel, Minister Says,” Reuters, April 13, 2025, sec. Europe, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-seeking-solutions-damaged-chernobyl-confinement-vessel-minister-says-2025-04-12/ [https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-seeking-solutions-damaged-chernobyl-confinement-vessel-minister-says-2025-04-12/].

Blockade Rehearsal? Decoding China's Military Message

In this episode of Assumed Rationality, Bree Megivern unpacks China’s recent military exercises around Taiwan, analyzing them as both a possible rehearsal for a blockade and a strategic message to Taipei and Washington, DC. The episode touches on the historical relationship between China and Taiwan and the international community’s reactions to the military exercises.  Have questions, comments, or episode suggestions? Contact me at https://assumedrationality.com/ [https://assumedrationality.com/]  Want to learn more?  AP, “Taiwan’s President Says the Defense Budget Will Exceed 3% of GDP in Military Overhaul,” Associated Press News, March 20, 2025, https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-us-defense-budget-b15c2dc87297627a2ac12ea344fe94b8 [https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-us-defense-budget-b15c2dc87297627a2ac12ea344fe94b8]; Chris Buckley, “China’s Military Exercises Around Taiwan Enter Second Day,” The New York Times, April 1, 2025, sec. World, https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/01/world/asia/china-taiwan-military-drills.html [https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/01/world/asia/china-taiwan-military-drills.html];  Department of Defense, “Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth Concludes Visit to Japan” (Department of Defense, March 30, 2025), https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4139267/secretary-of-defense-pete-hegseth-concludes-visit-to-japan/https%3A%2F%2Fwww.defense.gov%2FNews%2FReleases%2FRelease%2FArticle%2F4139267%2Fsecretary-of-defense-pete-hegseth-concludes-visit-to-japan%2F [https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4139267/secretary-of-defense-pete-hegseth-concludes-visit-to-japan/https%3A%2F%2Fwww.defense.gov%2FNews%2FReleases%2FRelease%2FArticle%2F4139267%2Fsecretary-of-defense-pete-hegseth-concludes-visit-to-japan%2F];  Dzirhan Mahadzir, “Chinese Military Wraps Intimidation Drills Off Taiwan,” USNI News (blog), April 2, 2025, https://news.usni.org/2025/04/02/chinese-military-wraps-intimidation-drills-off-taiwan [https://news.usni.org/2025/04/02/chinese-military-wraps-intimidation-drills-off-taiwan];  Huizhong Wu and Johnson Lai, “Chinese Military Conducts Large-Scale Drills around Taiwan,” AP News, April 1, 2025, https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-military-drills-56a39e0044657c0a74482184895e6bed [https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-military-drills-56a39e0044657c0a74482184895e6bed];  Jack Burnham, “Signaling Displeasure With Washington, China Conducts Military Exercises Around Taiwan,” Foundation for Defense of Democracies, April 3, 2025, https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2025/04/03/signaling-displeasure-with-washington-china-conducts-military-exercises-around-taiwan/ [https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2025/04/03/signaling-displeasure-with-washington-china-conducts-military-exercises-around-taiwan/];  Joe Cash et al., “China Launches Military Drills around Taiwan, Calls Taiwan President a ‘Parasite,’” Reuters, April 1, 2025, sec. Asia Pacific, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinese-military-says-it-is-conducting-exercises-around-taiwan-2025-03-31/ [https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinese-military-says-it-is-conducting-exercises-around-taiwan-2025-03-31/];  Joe Cash et al., “China Concludes Two-Day War Games around Taiwan after Live Fire Drills,” Reuters, April 2, 2025, sec. Asia Pacific, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-drills-around-taiwan-continue-gives-them-code-name-strait-thunder-2025-04-02/ [https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-drills-around-taiwan-continue-gives-them-code-name-strait-thunder-2025-04-02/];  Matthew Sperzel et al., “China-Taiwan Weekly Update, April 4, 2025,” Institute for the Study of War - Press, April 4, 2025, http://dev-isw.bivings.com/ [http://dev-isw.bivings.com/];  The Associated Press, “Taiwan’s President Pushes to Increase Defense Budget amid Rising Threat from China,” NPR, March 21, 2025, sec. Asia, https://www.npr.org/2025/03/21/nx-s1-5336093/taiwain-military-budget-china-defense [https://www.npr.org/2025/03/21/nx-s1-5336093/taiwain-military-budget-china-defense]. Music:  "Super [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/] Power Cool Dude" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com [http://incompetech.com]) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/]

Maximum Pressure, Minimum Progress: Iran’s Nuclear Gamble

Want to request an episode topic? Go to https://assumedrationality.com/ [https://assumedrationality.com/]  Sources:  Al Jazeera Staff, “Iran Responds to Trump Letter on Nuclear Talks, State Media Reports,” Al Jazeera, March 27, 2025, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/27/iran-responds-to-trump-letter-on-restarting-nuclear-talks-state-media [https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/27/iran-responds-to-trump-letter-on-restarting-nuclear-talks-state-media];  Alex Plitsas, “After Proxies and Nuclear Program Threats, Iran May Turn to Terror Abroad,” Atlantic Council (blog), March 25, 2025, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/increasing-threat-iran-transnational-terrorism/ [https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/increasing-threat-iran-transnational-terrorism/];  Doina Chiacu and David Ljunggren, “Trump Threatens Bombing If Iran Does Not Make Nuclear Deal,” Reuters, March 30, 2025, sec. World, https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-there-will-be-bombing-if-iran-does-not-make-nuclear-deal-2025-03-30/ [https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-there-will-be-bombing-if-iran-does-not-make-nuclear-deal-2025-03-30/];  Farnaz Fassihi, “What to Know About Iran’s Response to Trump’s Letter Urging Talks,” The New York Times, March 28, 2025, https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/28/world/middleeast/iran-negotiations-trump-letter.html [https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/28/world/middleeast/iran-negotiations-trump-letter.html]; Kali Robinson, “What Is the Iran Nuclear Deal?,” Council on Foreign Relations, October 27, 2023, https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-iran-nuclear-deal [https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-iran-nuclear-deal];  Nadeen Ebrahim, “As Trump Offers New Nuclear Talks, Iran Weighs the Cost of Losing Its Final Leverage,” CNN, March 26, 2025, https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/26/middleeast/trump-offers-new-nuclear-talks-iran-weighs-cost-mime-intl/index.html [https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/26/middleeast/trump-offers-new-nuclear-talks-iran-weighs-cost-mime-intl/index.html];  Offive of the Director of National Intelligence, “Annual Threat Assessment Ofthe US Intelligence Community” (Office of the Director of National Intelligence, March 2025), https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2025-Unclassified-Report.pdf [https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2025-Unclassified-Report.pdf];  STEPHANIE LIECHTENSTEIN, “Iran Accelerates Production of near Weapons-Grade Uranium, IAEA Says, as Tensions with US Ratchet Up,” AP News, February 26, 2025, https://apnews.com/article/iran-nuclear-iaea-weapons-grade-uranium-trump-0b11a99a7364f9a43e1c83b220114d45 [https://apnews.com/article/iran-nuclear-iaea-weapons-grade-uranium-trump-0b11a99a7364f9a43e1c83b220114d45];  The Tactics Institute, “Tactics Institute Raises Alarm Over Covert Uranium Deal Between Niger and Iran,” The Tactics Institute for Security and Counterterrorism, October 7, 2024, https://tacticsinstitute.com/press-releases/tactics-institute-raises-alarm-over-covert-uranium-deal-between-niger-and-iran/ [https://tacticsinstitute.com/press-releases/tactics-institute-raises-alarm-over-covert-uranium-deal-between-niger-and-iran/];  Unshin Lee Harpley, “B-2 Bombers Arrive on Diego Garcia in Unusual Show of Force,” Air & Space Forces Magazine, March 27, 2025, https://www.airandspaceforces.com/b-2-bombers-diego-garcia/ [https://www.airandspaceforces.com/b-2-bombers-diego-garcia/]. Music:  "Super [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/] Power Cool Dude" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com [http://incompetech.com]) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/]

The Shadow Fleet Fueling Russia's Economy

Request an episode topic at: https://assumedrationality.com/contact-assumed-rationality/ [https://assumedrationality.com/contact-assumed-rationality/]  Sources:  Anna Caprile and Gabija Leclerc, “Russia’s ‘Shadow Fleet’: Bringing the Threat to Light,” Briefing (European Parliament, November 2024 https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2024/766242/EPRS_BRI(2024)766242_EN.pdf [https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2024/766242/EPRS_BRI(2024)766242_EN.pdf];   Eitvydas Bajarūnas, “Choking Russia’s Shadow Fleet in the Baltic,” CEPA, January 15, 2025, https://cepa.org/article/choking-russias-shadow-fleet-in-the-baltic/ [https://cepa.org/article/choking-russias-shadow-fleet-in-the-baltic/];  Elisabeth Braw, “The Threats Posed by the Global Shadow Fleet—and How to Stop It,” Atlantic Council (blog), December 6, 2024, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/the-threats-posed-by-the-global-shadow-fleet-and-how-to-stop-it/ [https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/the-threats-posed-by-the-global-shadow-fleet-and-how-to-stop-it/]; European Commission, “G7 Agrees Oil Price Cap: Reducing Russia’s Revenues, While Keeping Global Energy Markets Stable,” European Commission, December 2, 2022,, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/it/ip_22_7468 [https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/it/ip_22_7468];  Patrick Sorge and Alex Longley, “Germany Seizes Russian Oil Sitting on a Tanker in the Baltic Sea,” Bloomberg, March 21, 2025, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-21/germany-seizes-russian-oil-sitting-on-a-tanker-in-the-baltic-sea [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-21/germany-seizes-russian-oil-sitting-on-a-tanker-in-the-baltic-sea];  Rachel More and Friederike Heine, “Germany Seizes Tanker Belonging to Russian ‘Shadow Fleet’, Spiegel Reports,” Reuters, March 21, 2025, sec. Europe, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-confiscates-tanker-belonging-russian-shadow-fleet-spiegel-reports-2025-03-21/ [https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-confiscates-tanker-belonging-russian-shadow-fleet-spiegel-reports-2025-03-21/];  Robin Brooks and Ben Harris, “Where Did Russia’s Shadow Fleet Come from?,” Brookings, February 27, 2025, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/where-did-russias-shadow-fleet-come-from/ [https://www.brookings.edu/articles/where-did-russias-shadow-fleet-come-from/];  Tess Joosse, “When Wrecks Become Reefs,” Smithsonian Ocean, January 2022, https://ocean.si.edu/ecosystems/coral-reefs/when-wrecks-become-reefs [https://ocean.si.edu/ecosystems/coral-reefs/when-wrecks-become-reefs];  US Department of the Treasury, “Treasury Intensifies Sanctions Against Russia by Targeting Russia’s Oil Production and Exports,” Press Release, January 10, 2025, https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2777 [https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2777]. Music:  "Music for Manatees" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com [http://incompetech.com]) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/] "Super [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/] Power Cool Dude" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com [http://incompetech.com]) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/]

Sound Cannons in Serbia: How to Protest Safely

Want to learn more:  AP, “Serbian Officials Deny Illegal Sonic Weapon Attack on Peaceful Protesters,” AP News, March 16, 2025, https://apnews.com/article/serbia-protest-sonic-weapon-8502587e5849997175a5ea02f98d2e19 [https://apnews.com/article/serbia-protest-sonic-weapon-8502587e5849997175a5ea02f98d2e19];  Big Brother Watch Team, “A Guide to Facial Recognition at Protests — Big Brother Watch,” A guide to facial recognition at protests — Big Brother Watch, August 2, 2023, https://bigbrotherwatch.org.uk/blog/a-guide-to-facial-recognition-at-protests-2/ [https://bigbrotherwatch.org.uk/blog/a-guide-to-facial-recognition-at-protests-2/];  Daphne Carr, “Understanding the LRAD, the ‘Sound Cannon’ Police Are Using at Protests, and How to Protect Yourself From It,” Pitchfork, June 9, 2020, https://pitchfork.com/thepitch/understanding-the-lrad-the-sound-cannon-police-are-using-at-protests-and-how-to-protect-yourself-from-it/ [https://pitchfork.com/thepitch/understanding-the-lrad-the-sound-cannon-police-are-using-at-protests-and-how-to-protect-yourself-from-it/];  Darren Loucaides, “How Governments Use Facial Recognition for Protest Surveillance - Rest of World,” Rest of the World, March 27, 2024, https://restofworld.org/2024/facial-recognition-government-protest-surveillance/#/an-end-to-privacy [https://restofworld.org/2024/facial-recognition-government-protest-surveillance/#/an-end-to-privacy];  DUSAN STOJANOVIC, “Why People Are Protesting over a Deadly Roof Collapse in Serbia | AP News,” November 21, 2024, https://apnews.com/article/serbia-roof-collapse-china-protests-3cfa282938b1ddec12c4795b9ecb3e95 [https://apnews.com/article/serbia-roof-collapse-china-protests-3cfa282938b1ddec12c4795b9ecb3e95];  EWB, “One of the Largest Protests Ever Held in Serbia, Students Accuse the Authorities of Using Illegal Device,” European Western Balkans (blog), March 15, 2025, https://europeanwesternbalkans.com/2025/03/15/one-of-the-largest-protests-ever-held-in-serbia-students-accuse-the-authorities-of-using-illegal-device/ [https://europeanwesternbalkans.com/2025/03/15/one-of-the-largest-protests-ever-held-in-serbia-students-accuse-the-authorities-of-using-illegal-device/];  Privacy International, “How Facial Recognition Technology Can Be Used at a Protest | Privacy International,” May 5, 2021, http://privacyinternational.org/explainer/4495/how-facial-recognition-technology-can-be-used-protest [http://privacyinternational.org/explainer/4495/how-facial-recognition-technology-can-be-used-protest];  Privacy International, “Prosecuted for Protesting,” January 10, 2025, http://privacyinternational.org/long-read/5460/prosecuted-protesting [http://privacyinternational.org/long-read/5460/prosecuted-protesting];  Sarajevo Times, “‘Sound Cannon’ at Protest? Experts Warn of Dangerous Consequences,” Sarajevo Times, March 15, 2025, https://sarajevotimes.com/sound-cannon-at-protest-experts-warn-of-dangerous-consequences/ [https://sarajevotimes.com/sound-cannon-at-protest-experts-warn-of-dangerous-consequences/].  Music:  "Music for Manatees" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com [http://incompetech.com]) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/] "Super [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/] Power Cool Dude" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com [http://incompetech.com]) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/]