Is Waymo's Lead Becoming Insurmountable?

Is Waymo's Lead Becoming Insurmountable?

This week on Autonomy Markets [/autonomy-markets/], Grayson Brulte [/grayson-brulte/] and Walter Piecyk discuss Waymo's widening lead, the Ojai (Chinese-made Zeekr robotaxi) rollout's political fault lines, and the new Texas autonomous vehicle and truck database. Waymo is actively preparing to deploy a fleet of Chinese-made Zeekrs across California and Arizona, now renamed Ojai, in blue and purple states, not a red state, at least not yet. Sticking to his original call that the Zeekr is an unforced error, Grayson lays out the emerging split where Jaguars head to red states and Zeekrs head to blue and purple ones. With Magna now producing roughly 250 vehicles a month, Waymo [https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/waymo-big-miami-plans/] is on pace for 6,000 cars by year-end, and Walt argues the real unlock comes when the sensor stack gets cheaper and Waymo begins to add more than 1,000 new vehicles a month on the road. In Texas, the Texas Department of Motor Vehicles launched the Automated Motor Vehicle Lookup, where any member of the public can look up the fleet size of any AV operator in the state along with any complaints that might be filed. Wrapping up the conversation, Grayson and Walt discussed the launch of Wayve Labs, Zoox getting an undeserved pass thanks to Amazon and BYD's willingness to compensate owners when God's Eye is engaged during an incident. Episode Chapters 00:00 Waymo Deploys the Ojai 06:40 Waymo Production Math 08:55 Waymo's Expanding Lead 15:15 Texas Automated Motor Vehicle Lookup 25:00 Wayve Labs 32:10 3,760 Miles Across Canada. No Interventions. 36:15 Zoox Gets a Pass 39:15 Foreign Autonomy Desk 40:20 Next Week The Road to Autonomy is the leading applied intelligence platform covering the convergence of automation, autonomy, and the Autonomy Economy™ powered AUTNMY AI. Through our podcasts, newsletter, and proprietary applied intelligence, we set the narrative for institutional investors, industry executives, and policymakers navigating the convergence of automation, autonomy, and economic growth. Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: ⁠⁠https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/⁠⁠ [https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/] LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for research here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries. Each episode explores topics like streaming services, social media, digital transformation, and the future of entertainment technology. Closely followed by key decision-makers in the TMT industries, this podcast provides actionable analysis for investors, industry professionals, and tech enthusiasts. Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠team@lightshedtmt.com⁠⁠

Waymo's Lead and Autonomous Trucking's Inflection Point

This week on Autonomy Markets [https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-markets/], Grayson Brulte [https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/grayson-brulte/] and Walter Piecyk discuss Waymo’s undisputed global lead, the growing consumer-driven shift toward supervised ADAS (Level 2++), and autonomous trucking’s inflection point. After spending the week in Silicon Valley, Walt shared his on the ground observations amidst the backdrop of Waymo’s noisy week where the company paused service in several cities and temporarily shut down highway access. Even though Waymo had a difficult week, the company’s underlying position is unchanged, as they remain the undisputed global leader. Wayve announced a supervised L2++ point-to-point deal with Stellantis, indicating a potential pivot towards ADAS as a short-term revenue generator. Grayson views the broader growth of ADAS as being consumer-driven, with global OEMs looking to build their own version of Tesla’s FSD. Wrapping up the conversation, Grayson and Walt discussed London gearing up for robotaxis and the global growth of Chinese robotaxis. Episode Chapters 00:00 Walt's Silicon Valley Field Report 07:20 Why Tesla Won't Add LiDAR 11:05 Uber's AV Labs and the Data Question 13:13 ADAS Opportunity 18:40 Waymo's Noisy Week 23:45 London Further Opens the Door to Robotaxis 26:23 Build America 250 Act 29:44 Wayve x Stellantis 31:34 Foreign Autonomy Desk 34:44 Next Week The Road to Autonomy is the leading applied intelligence platform covering the convergence of automation, autonomy, and the Autonomy Economy™ powered AUTNMY AI. Through our podcasts, newsletter, and proprietary applied intelligence, we set the narrative for institutional investors, industry executives, and policymakers navigating the convergence of automation, autonomy, and economic growth. Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: ⁠https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/⁠ [https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/] LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for research here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries. Each episode explores topics like streaming services, social media, digital transformation, and the future of entertainment technology. Closely followed by key decision-makers in the TMT industries, this podcast provides actionable analysis for investors, industry professionals, and tech enthusiasts. Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠team@lightshedtmt.com⁠⁠

Forget the Waymo/Uber News, Focus on the Nuro and WeRide Partnerships

This week on Autonomy Markets [/autonomy-markets/], Grayson Brulte [/grayson-brulte/] and Walter Piecyk discuss Waymo's newly announced expansion ahead of the World Cup, the suddenly accelerating deterioration of the Uber/Waymo relationship, and the partnerships that actually matter for Uber's autonomous future. As Waymo expanded their U.S. service area by 1,400 square miles across 11 cities, Uber continued to amplify both their direct and indirect attacks against Waymo in the media and in a self-published report about deploying autonomous vehicles. Even as the deterioration of the relationship spreads into the news, Walt notes that the divorce narrative is already largely priced into Uber's stock, but the more interesting question is what happens next with Uber's remaining partners. Nuro [/autonomy-leaderboard/#company-nuro] recently opened an engineering and partnerships office in Munich, home to BMW, with Lucid notably absent from the press release and personally-owned autonomous vehicles mentioned directly. On the WeRide earnings call, the company outlined European expansion plans including Slovakia and made the case for a unified Level 2 to Level 4 platform. Wrapping up the conversation, Grayson and Walt discussed Volvo Autonomous Solutions' new Dallas-to-Houston lane and what the true definition of autonomous and what defines supervised. Episode Chapters 00:00 Waymo's World Cup Expansion 03:59 Waymo's Unforced Error 05:08 The Waymo/Uber Divorce Narrative Goes Mainstream 14:51 Nuro Opens Munich Office 20:26 WeRide Eyes a Unified L2-to-L4 Platform 22:47 Volvo Autonomous Solutions Dallas-to-Houston Lane 23:49 What Defines Driverless 31:39 Foreign Autonomy Desk 32:04 Next Week The Road to Autonomy is the leading applied intelligence platform covering the convergence of automation, autonomy, and the Autonomy Economy™ powered AUTNMY AI. Through our podcasts, newsletter, and proprietary applied intelligence, we set the narrative for institutional investors, industry executives, and policymakers navigating the convergence of automation, autonomy, and economic growth. Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/ [https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/] LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for research here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries. Each episode explores topics like streaming services, social media, digital transformation, and the future of entertainment technology. Closely followed by key decision-makers in the TMT industries, this podcast provides actionable analysis for investors, industry professionals, and tech enthusiasts. Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠team@lightshedtmt.com⁠⁠

Vegas Field Report and Autonomous Trucking Earnings

This week on Autonomy Markets [/autonomy-markets/], Grayson Brulte [/grayson-brulte/] and Walter Piecyk discuss Grayson's Las Vegas field work riding in Zoox [/autonomy-leaderboard/#company-zoox] and Motional robotaxis, Uber's [/autonomy-leaderboard/#company-uber] earnings and the path to driver-out, and autonomous trucking earnings. The first thing Grayson did when he landed in Vegas was try to order a Zoox, but the service was not available until 11 AM and when it finally came online shortly after 11 AM, the wait time for the vehicle to arrive was 67 minutes. So he opened the Uber app and tried to order a Motional robotaxi, where he was paired with a Motional in under five minutes. During the one hour and seven minute Zoox wait time, he was able to ride down and back in two different Motional vehicles between Resorts World and the Luxor, arriving back with 21 minutes to spare. While he was in town, Grayson conducted field work [https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/field-reports/] at the Zoox depot where he counted more Toyota Highlander test vehicles than purpose-built Zoox robotaxis coming out of the depot. He also visited with the Nuro [/autonomy-leaderboard/#company-nuro] team at their test track at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway. While Grayson was busy conducting field work, Tesla [/autonomy-leaderboard/#company-tesla] crossed 10 billion FSD Supervised miles, while Uber's autonomy overhang continues as the benchmark for deploying robotaxis is driver-out, not with safety attendants. Wrapping up the conversation, Grayson and Walt discussed the latest earnings from Aurora [/autonomy-leaderboard/#company-aurora] and Kodiak [/autonomy-leaderboard/#company-kodiak] and what Grayson learned at the ACT Expo in Las Vegas. Episode Chapters 00:00 Field Work: Motional, Zoox and Las Vegas 20:57 Uber's Autonomy Overhang 23:50 Discounting Uber's Partnership with Waymo 26:44 Nuro and Lucid Prepare to Scale 32:52 Autonomous Trucking's Presence at the ACT Expo 34:41 Aurora, Kodiak Updates from Earnings 37:13 Politics and Autonomous Trucking in California 39:01 The No Safety Attendant Bar for Autonomous Trucking 44:10 Next Week The Road to Autonomy is the leading applied intelligence platform covering the convergence of automation, autonomy, and the Autonomy Economy™ powered AUTNMY AI. Through our podcasts, newsletter, and proprietary applied intelligence, we set the narrative for institutional investors, industry executives, and policymakers navigating the convergence of automation, autonomy, and economic growth. Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/ LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for research here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries. Each episode explores topics like streaming services, social media, digital transformation, and the future of entertainment technology. Closely followed by key decision-makers in the TMT industries, this podcast provides actionable analysis for investors, industry professionals, and tech enthusiasts. Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠team@lightshedtmt.com⁠⁠

Big Week for U.S. Autonomous Trucks, While China Shuts Down Autonomy

This week on Autonomy Markets [https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-markets/], Grayson Brulte [https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/grayson-brulte/] and Walter Piecyk discuss Bot Auto’s fully autonomous commercial run from Houston to Dallas, Aurora’s expanded partnership with Hirschbach, and Uber’s CTO publicly criticizing Waymo [https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-leaderboard/#company-waymo] on X over safety. With Bot Auto [https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-leaderboard/#company-bot-auto] completing a 231 mile commercial paid run with no human in the cab, no safety driver, and no observer, the conversation evolves into a deeper discussion around the imminent Waymo robotaxi moment for autonomous trucking, with Kodiak [https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-leaderboard/#company-kodiak] operating fully autonomous in the Permian Basin and Aurora [https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-leaderboard/#company-aurora] announcing a non-binding 500 truck MOU with Hirschbach representing roughly 15 percent of the carrier’s fleet. While in Houston, Grayson conducted field work [https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/field-reports/] riding in a Tesla [https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-leaderboard/#company-tesla] Unsupervised Robotaxi in the Cypress neighborhood, where he counted 24 robotaxis staged for launch at the Tesla service center, while observing that both the Tesla and Waymo vehicles drove aggressively in a similar manner to Houstonians. More signs emerged this week of the deteriorating relationship between Waymo and Uber as the CTO of Uber made a post on X accusing a Waymo [https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-leaderboard/#company-waymo] of an aggressive maneuver against a Muni bus in San Francisco, a rare public criticism from a partner in a public forum, reinforcing the deteriorating relationship that appears to be on the verge of a divorce. On the Foreign Autonomy Desk, Grayson and Walt discuss China suspending new autonomous vehicle permits following the Baidu Apollo Go incident in Wuhan where 200 robotaxis simultaneously froze on March 31st, and WeRide’s partnership with Lenovo [https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/weride-lenovo-pronto-bot-auto/] to deploy 200,000 robotaxis over the next five years against a current fleet of 1,125 vehicles. Episode Chapters 00:00 Field Work: Bot Auto Launches Fully Autonomous Commercial Service 05:42 Aurora's Expanded Partnership with Hirschbach 08:53 Congressman Ro Khanna's Anti-Autonomy Stance 11:18 Uber and Hertz Partner for Robotaxi Fleet Servicing 18:40 Avomo, Moove, and Uber's Fragmented Autonomy Strategy 20:07 Uber CTO Publicly Criticizes Waymo on X 24:13 Waymo's Next City: Cincinnati or Kansas City? 27:30 Tesla Unsupervised Robotaxi in Houston 34:37 China Suspends New Autonomous Vehicle Permits 39:14 WeRide and Lenovo to Deploy 200,000 Robotaxis 40:54 Next Week The Road to Autonomy is the leading applied intelligence platform covering the convergence of automation, autonomy, and the Autonomy Economy™ powered AUTNMY AI. Through our podcasts, newsletter, and proprietary applied intelligence, we set the narrative for institutional investors, industry executives, and policymakers navigating the convergence of automation, autonomy, and economic growth. Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/ LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for research here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries. Each episode explores topics like streaming services, social media, digital transformation, and the future of entertainment technology. Closely followed by key decision-makers in the TMT industries, this podcast provides actionable analysis for investors, industry professionals, and tech enthusiasts. Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠team@lightshedtmt.com⁠⁠