Blue City Blues
What just happened in the Los Angeles mayoral primary, and why didn't former reality tv star and social media darling Spencer Pratt live up to the incessant, breathless hype (so sorry for your loss, X)? Now that it’s clear that incumbent Mayor Karen Bass is going to face off in the general election with democratic socialist (and alleged political backstabber?) Nithya Raman, how much trouble is Bass in? What are Raman's strengths and vulnerabilities, and what does she need to do to prevail in November? And will Latino swing decide the outcome of the Bass-Raman establishment vs. insurgent showdown? Mike Madrid, one of California’s premier political strategists and the author of the definitive book on Latino voters, The Latino Century [https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/202399016-the-latino-century], joins us to help unpack the soap operatic twists and turns of the LA mayoral contest. If you’re unfamiliar, Mike is a high profile Never Trump Republican who has served as public affairs director for the League of California Cities, co-founded the Lincoln Project [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lincoln_Project] and currently is a fellow at the Unruh Institute of Politics at the University of Southern California. He’s one of the rare political consultants who has prominently advised both Ds and Rs, having consulted on Democrat Antonio Villaraigosa’s 2018 California gubernatorial bid. Regarding LA’s particularly juicy mayor’s race, Mike cuts through the noise with us to dish out the hard truths: as a Trumpy Republican, Pratt’s vibe-centered, harshly doom-and-gloom campaign painting Los Angeles as a hellscape may have wowed rich West-side Angelinos wound up about street disorder and made the hearts of social media influencers go pitter patter, but it was never going to get traction with the city’s core of progressive voters. That said, Mike argues, both Pratt’s and Raman’s relative success is a sign that voter dissatisfaction in the city is high. And the general election contest between Bass and Raman will likely turn into a high octane slugfest, where middle class Latino voters will be the swing bloc who will determine the outcome. “When you’re in a very strongly Democratic city, a one party town… the questions become less about ideology and more about competence,” Madrid says. “LA is broken. LA is a mess. I love Los Angeles, but it’s broken. LA does not work, and can we say that’s about ideology or not? I don’t think that it is, I think it’s just about competence.“ As we go deeper into the episode, we also get Mike's broader download on why and how both parties have missed the boat when it comes to winning over Latino voters, and why Xavier Becerra was able to come out of nowhere to win the California gubernatorial primary, where he will (very likely) face off against Republican Steve Hilton, which will mean he’s all but assured of being the state’s next governor. OUTSIDE REFERENCES: Mike Madrid, The Latino Century: How America’s Largest Minority Is Transforming Democracy, [https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/202399016-the-latino-century] Simon & Schuster (2024). Rogé Karma, “Why Democrats Got the Politics of Immigration So Wrong for So Long [https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/12/democrats-latino-vote-immigration/680945/],” The Atlantic, Dec. 10. 2024. Please send your feedback, guest and show ideas to bluecitypodcast@gmail.com
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