BLUF #9: Regime Change in Iran Will Require the Perfect Storm, but One Might Be Brewing

BLUF #10: Davos Handed China a Huge Win...Courtesy of the United States?

BLUF At the World Economic Forum summit in Davos, Switzerland, the cracks of the rules-based international order ruptured. Here, the “middle power” states received a wake-up call, the U.S. was the biggest loser, and China may have passively become the biggest beneficiary of a souring relationship between America and its once closest allies. By rhetorically positioning itself as the stable economic investment and a defender of multilateralism without imperialist ambitions, Beijing may slowly be replacing the U.S. as the go-to nation for economic partnerships. Music: Tomasz Redman Noah Tan Video clips: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTvFnC-oFGw [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTvFnC-oFGw] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvdA4V0bZBA [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvdA4V0bZBA] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0iHxJmYVyus [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0iHxJmYVyus] This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit noahhtan.substack.com [https://noahhtan.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

BLUF #9: Regime Change in Iran Will Require the Perfect Storm, but One Might Be Brewing

BLUF In the past few weeks, Iran has been shaken up by the largest protest since the 1979 revolution. Mass killings of protestors by the Irainian Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) has demonstrated that repression has continued to work due to organizational deficiences and exploitation of individual pain thresholds. But internal defections from security forces and strikes from the Bazaari class show that the regime is on borrowed time. Without extensive economic reform, the Ayatollah Khamenei cannot expect to repeatedly kill his way to maintaining power. However, it will take absolute and an enduring resolve from Iranian protestors and support from international power centers to bring about change for the first time in almost 50 years. Music: Tomasz Redman Noah Tan Video clips: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z5F-_0Rc-q0 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z5F-_0Rc-q0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ttTJauaO6nc [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ttTJauaO6nc] https://www.youtube.com/shorts/XQbOiiiAMl4 [https://www.youtube.com/shorts/XQbOiiiAMl4] This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit noahhtan.substack.com [https://noahhtan.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

BLUF #8: Is International Law a Fool's Errand?

BLUF #8 The world is at a critical juncture. Recent military operations [https://www.war.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/4370431/trump-announces-us-militarys-capture-of-maduro/] in Venezuela, ambitions [https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/9/greenland-should-take-the-lead-in-talks-with-us-foreign-minister-says] for the Trump administration to own Greenland, and Russia’s escalations [https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/08/world/europe/russia-ukraine-nuclear-capable-missile.html] in Ukraine suggest that international law is ineffective at constraining powerful states from using force against other countries. Some also argue that international law should not even be under consideration when determining actions of strategic importance. But while international law is admittedly ineffective at holding these states accountable, its value—even from a realist and self-interested standpoint—should not be discounted. As hypocritical or unfair as it seems, the world is better off when international law is frequently violated than one when it is purely at the mercy of strength, force, and power, whoever happens to wield it. Music: Tomasz Redman Noah Tan Introduction videos: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=213s-MHCe3o [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=213s-MHCe3o] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-nWG0RKQ4aw [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-nWG0RKQ4aw] https://www.youtube.com/shorts/SdhZ9vKGNq0 [https://www.youtube.com/shorts/SdhZ9vKGNq0] This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit noahhtan.substack.com [https://noahhtan.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

2025: The World in BLUF

2025 in international security Music: Tomasz Redman Noah Tan Video clips: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g14ts0KYa98 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g14ts0KYa98] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5HkGDAFaqM [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5HkGDAFaqM] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ln9uJndFkuk [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ln9uJndFkuk] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZbySxhAvHA [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZbySxhAvHA] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZbySxhAvHA [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZbySxhAvHA] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=igGYzVDKi2k [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=igGYzVDKi2k] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A3LgG4ul7hw [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A3LgG4ul7hw] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9n36dql7CFI [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9n36dql7CFI] This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit noahhtan.substack.com [https://noahhtan.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

BLUF #6: "Chip"-ping away at the export control regime

On December 8th, 2025, President Donald Trump announced that he was allowing Nvidia to sell its second-best chip, the H200, to a select number of Chinese customers. Critics of the move say it compromises national security by giving Beijing access to more powerful computing abilities than it would otherwise be able to produce domestically. Others say that it undermines America’s strategic partnerships on export controls. And still others remark that it may not even be legal. Meanwhile, supporters note that the move helps to bring in much-needed revenue, maintain a dominant market share in the advanced chip industry, and stave off China’s aggressive push to decouple itself from the U.S. tech stack. Yet, there is something to be said about how important this move really is, especially considering that Beijing might not even accept the deal in the first place. Audio clips: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CpCxEGjRqsg [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CpCxEGjRqsg] (Bloomberg) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eomFQABFCI0 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eomFQABFCI0] (Bloomberg) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEdgjZ_nxo4 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEdgjZ_nxo4] (Reuters) Music: Tomasz Redman Noah Tan This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit noahhtan.substack.com [https://noahhtan.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]