CPI Upends Rate Reckoning, CME BTC Vol. Futures Go Live in June, CLARITY Markup Moves Forward

CPI Upends Rate Reckoning, CME BTC Vol. Futures Go Live in June, CLARITY Markup Moves Forward

This episode was recorded live via X Spaces - audio quality varies in places. In this week's CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded May 14, 2026, the team unpacks a packed week for macro, policy and market structure: a hot CPI print that flips rate-cut expectations on their head; the CLARITY Act clears the Senate Banking Committee with bipartisan support; Kevin Warsh's narrow confirmation as Fed Chair designate; and CME announces Bitcoin Volatility futures will launch on June 1. Join Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA, Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk, Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA, and - for a special deep dive on CME's watershed product launch - CF Benchmarks Senior Product Manager Xin Wang. Chapters: 00:00 – Intro & Team Welcome 00:53 – Hot CPI Print: 3.8% YoY & The Rate Hike Pivot 03:25 – PPI Confirms The Trend: Sharpest Print Since March 2022 05:25 – Market Impact: S&P at All-Time Highs, 10-Year Tops Year-to-Date 07:00 – CLARITY Act Markup: Today's Pivotal Senate Banking Vote 09:35 – GENIUS Act as the Analog: Why CLARITY Matters 11:57 – Calendar Risk: Beating the Midterm Clock 13:06 – Warsh Confirmed 54-45 — But Powell Stays Until 2028 18:46 – The Real Story: A Divided Fed Board, Not a Puppet Chair 21:00 – Bitcoin at $81K & The 200-Week Moving Average in Focus 24:26 – ETF Bid Support: Stairs Up, Elevator Down? 27:05 – Stagflation Tilt: GDPNow & Decelerating Growth 28:20 – Ether's Relief Rally: Catch-Up Trade or Real Move? 31:03 – Altcoin Leadership: AI & Compute Tokens Take the Lead 34:51 – CME Launches Bitcoin Vol. Futures June 1: a Watershed Moment 36:33 – Inside BVX/BVXS: 30-Day Forward Vol. on CME Bitcoin Options 39:18 – Is BVX the "VIX of Bitcoin"? Similarities & Differences 41:40 – Vol. as Feature, Not Bug: How Practitioners Will Deploy BVX 44:25 – The IBIT Options Effect: Compressing Bitcoin's Vol. Curve 50:06 – The $10T Asset Question: Why Bitcoin Vol. Trends Down 52:54 – Week Ahead: FOMC Minutes & The Trump-Xi Summit 56:26 – Closing Remarks

Saylor's Pivot, NFP Heat & the Clarity Countdown: Crypto's Cross-Currents

This episode was recorded live via X Spaces - audio quality varies in places. In the fourth CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded Friday May 8, 2026, Head of Content Ken Odeluga is joined by Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA, Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk, Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA and CF Benchmarks Senior Product Manager James Flamant - with special guest Ryan Rasmussen, Head of Research at Bitwise. A red-hot NFP print, Michael Saylor's signal that Bitcoin sales aren't off the table, Circle's 20% pop on stablecoin-rewards optimism, and a forensic walk-through of the Kelp DAO ~$300M cross-chain exploit. From AI concentration risk and chipmaker earnings to the Clarity Act markup expected within days, the team unpacks the cross-currents shaping crypto right now. Chapters: 00:00 – Intro & Team Welcome 01:21 – NFP Shocker: 115K Print Smashes the 65K Estimate 04:36 – Household vs. Employer Survey: The Revisions Question 06:42 – AI, Crypto & the Decade-Long Productivity Boom 07:31 – Cross-Asset Reaction: NQ Bid, Bitcoin Offered 08:38 – The K-Shaped Equity Market & Mark-to-Market EPS 12:13 – Chipmakers in Focus: Intel's Comeback, AMD's GPU Push 15:19 – AI Concentration Risk: What Happens If Momentum Fades? 17:50 – Bitcoin Decoupling from Tech: Finding the Next Catalyst 20:46 – Crypto Equities & Miners Steal the Show 23:27 – Coinbase Earnings: The Institutional Pivot Accelerates 25:56 – Strategy's $12.5B Loss & Saylor's Capital-Structure Pivot 30:26 – The Signal Heard Round Crypto: Strategy May Sell Bitcoin 35:04 – ETF Flows vs. MicroStrategy: Who's Really Driving Price? 38:09 – Is Strategy Coming In From the Cold? 41:00 – Bitcoin's Volatility as a Feature: Tax-Loss Harvesting 44:30 – The Clarity Act: Where Market Structure Stands Right Now 47:39 – Circle Pops 20%: Stablecoin Rewards in the Spotlight 50:32 – Deep Dive: The Kelp DAO $300M Cross-Chain Exploit 55:28 – Safeguards, Sandboxes & the Innovation Exemption 58:25 – Architecture After Kelp: Hunting the Weakest Link 01:00:11 – Week Ahead: Inflation, the Warsh Vote & the Clarity Markup 01:04:18 – Rethinking On-Chain Risk-Free Rates 01:05:16 – Closing Remarks

Crypto vs. Fractured Fed: Warsh Incoming, Powell Stays, Plus Morgan Stanley and Goldman BTC ETFs

This episode was recorded live via X Spaces — audio quality varies in places. In the third CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded April 30, 2026, Head of Content Ken Odeluga is joined by Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CF Benchmarks Head of Research Gabe Selby, and Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk for a packed session the morning after the most divided FOMC vote in over three decades. The DOJ has dropped its probe into Jerome Powell, Kevin Warsh has cleared the Senate Banking Committee on a historic party-line vote, and Powell has signalled he intends to stay on as a board governor — all in the space of a week. Meanwhile, four dissents at Wednesday's FOMC meeting — the most since October 1992 — have laid bare a fragmented central bank just as its leadership transition begins. The team unpacks what it all means for the rate path, risk assets, and crypto specifically, before turning to the Bitcoin ETF distribution war heating up between IBIT, Morgan Stanley's newly launched MSBT, and Goldman Sachs' income-focused filing. 00:00 – Intro & Team Welcome 01:20 – DOJ Drops the Powell Probe: Clearing the Path for Warsh 05:04 – Powell Digs In: Staying as Governor Until 2028 09:33 – Jackson Hole: The Next Real Fed Event 10:26 – Risk Assets in Earnings Mode, Not Rate-Cut Mode 12:18 – Inside the FOMC Decision: Four Dissents, Most Since 1992 24:25 – Rate Cut Odds Collapse: What It Means for Crypto 29:40 – Why Crypto Is Lagging Equities Right Now 31:54 – Morgan Stanley's MSBT: Can a Late Entrant Compete? 35:02 – The Distribution War: IBIT's Portability Edge 41:58 – Goldman's Bitcoin Premium Income ETF: Boomer Candy Arrives 48:07 – Bitcoin's Gamma Ceiling & the Missing Euphoria Bid 52:20 – Capital Flows: ETFs vs. MicroStrategy 54:46 – The Silver Lining: Warsh as Crypto Bull & Fed Deregulation 56:24 – AI CapEx & the Growth Sustainability Question 57:57 – Week Ahead: Iran, Clarity Act, Michigan Sentiment & Earnings 61:03 – Closing Remarks

BlackRock's Matt Kunke on the Launch of ETHB and Staking ETF Mechanics

In around four weeks after its listing, BlackRock's iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHB) had gathered roughly $450M in assets — which BlackRock itself calls a "top-quintile" launch. We're stoked to welcome Matt Kunke, CFA — Director and US iShares Digital Assets ETFs Product Strategist at BlackRock — to the CFB Talks Digital Assets podcast for a deep dive on what ETHB unlocks, why it sits alongside the original Ether ETF (ETHA) rather than replacing it, and how staking actually works inside an ETP wrapper. CF Benchmarks is the index provider for BlackRock's IBIT, ETHA and ETHB - so this conversation gets technical fast, but Matt is at his lucid best throughout. A sample of what's in store: * Why BlackRock built ETHB as a separate product instead of converting ETHA — and the reasoning behind giving investors choice * The "collateralized bond" mental model for proof-of-stake, and why correlated slashing — the tail risk everyone names — has never actually happened * How ETHB manages its stated 70%–95% staking range, the entry queue currently sitting at ~50 days, and why the exit queue is the one that really matters * The Lido stETH precedent: why sophisticated market actors should keep ETHB-style products at-or-near NAV even in stressed environments * Where staking yields are headed post-Pectra, the floor mechanics, and why the glide path is gradual rather than abrupt * ETH + staking rewards — how wealth advisors and hedge funds are actually framing the trade * Why ETH's wirehouse approval trajectory looks today the way IBIT's did roughly nine months ago Grab your beverage of choice and dive in! Recorded April 2026. Chapters 00:00 – Intro & Welcome: Matt Kunke from BlackRock 02:00 – A Top-Quintile Launch: ETHB Hits $450M in Under Four Weeks 04:15 – A New Product, Not an ETHA Conversion 06:14 – TradFi Demand vs. Crypto-Native Sentiment 08:29 – Tax & The Case for Keeping an Unstaked Option 09:08 – Staking 101: The Collateralized Bond Mental Model 11:24 – Three Staking Providers & the Correlated Slashing Defense 13:23 – Slashing in Practice 14:42 – Why 32 ETH? Pectra's Move to 2048 and Validator Consolidation 16:11 – Inside the 70%–95% Staking Range 18:25 – Why Lido's stETH Says Staking Discounts Stay Tight 20:54 – The 50-Day Entry Queue vs. the Empty Exit Queue 23:24 – Genesis of ETHB: Regulation & International Precedent 25:13 – ETH + Staking Rewards: How Investors Frame the Trade 26:31 – The Ethereum Thesis: Lindy, Liveness & Institutional Use Cases 28:59 – Inside Staking Yields: Issuance, Fees & The Gentle Glide Path 33:18 – What's Next: Basis Trades, Covered Calls & Modulated Risk 35:53 – Bitcoin's Bias & ETH's Wirehouse Approval Trajectory 38:24 – Closing Remarks

Warsh, Weekend Trading & the $300M Hack: Crypto's Inflection Points

Recorded April 23, 2026. This episode was recorded live via X Spaces - audio quality varies in places. In the second CF Benchmarks live X Space, Head of Research Gabe Selby is joined by Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CF Benchmarks Head of Product Thomas Erdosi, and Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk for another packed markets discussion. The team breaks down Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation hearing and what a shift away from forward guidance could mean for rate volatility. They dive into Strategy's accelerating Bitcoin purchases - now at a 16-month high - and whether the NAV premium can sustain the buying machine. The conversation turns to CME's landmark move to 24/7 crypto futures trading from May 29th, and Kraken's acquisition of Bitnomial, giving it the full CFTC license stack that brings regulated perpetual futures to the U.S. for the first time. A deep dive into the Kelp DAO's $292M bridge exploit opens up a broader discussion on AI's dual role as both threat and defence in DeFi security. The team closes with their Q1 factor performance breakdown and a look at the key catalysts ahead. Chapters: * 00:00 – Intro & Team Welcome * 02:27 – Warsh's Confirmation Hearing: What Did We Learn? * 05:58 – Killing the Dot Plot? The Forward Guidance Debate * 09:07 – Why Less Transparency Could Backfire on Rates * 10:06 – Balance Sheet Reduction: Tough Talk, Tougher Execution * 12:19 – Strategy's Bitcoin Buying Spree Hits a 16-Month High * 14:52 – NAV Premiums, STRF & the Sustainability Question * 18:00 – CME Goes 24/7: A Watershed Moment for Crypto Futures * 21:40 – The Weekend Gap Problem * 24:27 – Kraken's CFTC License Stack: Spot, Margin & Perps Under One Roof * 26:21 – Perpetual Futures Go Regulated in the U.S. * 29:31 – Will Perps Eat Fixed-Term Futures' Lunch? * 31:51 – On-Chain Innovation: CF Benchmarks Oracles & Tokenised Indices * 34:15 – Deep Dive: The Kelp DAO $292M Bridge Exploit * 38:36 – DeFi's Hidden Counterparty Risk Problem * 43:00 – AI as Defence: Patching Vulnerabilities Before the Hackers Do * 44:19 – Q1 Factor Performance: What Worked & What Didn't * 48:14 – Week Ahead: PCE, GDP, Fund Flows & the Clarity Act * 52:28 – Closing Remarks