Coinbase Institutional Market Call

This week, we analyze a market sending mixed signals. While ETF flows for both BTC and ETH remain positive and perp funding rates are healthy, the COIN50 Index is down 5.2% on the week. This raises the question: are global markets accurately pricing risk, especially with low volatility in traditional markets (VIX <20) and a slate of major catalysts on the horizon? On the macro front, it’s a packed week for central banks with key interest rate decisions coming from the Fed, Norges, the Bank of England, and the Swiss National Bank. We’ll discuss how the market is recalibrating towards only one Fed rate cut this year and what to watch for in the latest jobless claims, consumer confidence, and housing starts data. We also look ahead to the upcoming July 9th tariff pause deadline and the US/UK trade deal. We then dive into the dual nature of the corporate treasury strategy. While more companies are announcing allocations to BTC, SOL, and ETH, we examine the implications of the $7 billion debt cliff due for major holders in late 2029 and early 2030, and how increased competition may encourage innovative and potentially risky practices. The main event today is the expected Senate vote on the GENIUS Act, a pivotal moment for stablecoin legislation in the US. This comes as Circle’s stock approaches all-time highs and DeFi tokens like AAVE, UNI, and SKY are trading well. We’ll explore the value of ETH in this landscape, supported by the massive growth of onchain real-world assets ($24B) and stablecoins ($238B). Finally, we cover a series of major announcements from Coinbase that highlight real-world adoption. This includes the groundbreaking partnership with Shopify to bring USDC payments via Base to millions of merchants, the launch of the new Coinbase One Card with up to 4% bitcoin back, the all-in-one Coinbase Business platform, and insights from the latest “State of Crypto” report, which firmly places stablecoins at the center of the future of money. Topics Covered: * Market Update: * Positive BTC & ETH ETF Flows vs. a -5.2% COIN50 Index. * Healthy Perp Funding Rates (BTC 7.4%, ETH 9.1%). * Risk assessment: VIX vs. BTC Volatility and Gold correlation. * Global Macro: * Central Bank Decisions: Fed, Norges, SNB, Bank of England. * Shifting Fed expectations to a single 2025 rate cut. * US Economic Data: Jobless claims, consumer confidence, housing starts. * Trade & Tariffs: July 9th deadline and US/UK deal talks. * Corporate Treasury Strategy: * Continued adoption of BTC, SOL, and ETH by public companies. * The risk may be further out based on the 2029/2030 corporate debt maturities. * Ethereum & Stablecoin Thesis: * The GENIUS Act: US Senate vote expected today. * Market Movers: Circle, AAVE, UNI, and SKY performance. * Ecosystem Growth: Real-world assets ($24B) and stablecoins ($238B). * Coinbase News * Partnership with Shopify for USDC payments on Base [https://www.coinbase.com/en-gb/blog/coinbase-and-shopify-bring-usdc-payments-on-base-to-millions-of-merchants-worldwide]. * New Coinbase One Card with 4% bitcoin back [https://www.coinbase.com/en-gb/blog/earn-up-to-4-percent-bitcoin-back-on-every-purchase-with-the-new-coinbase-one-card]. * Launch of the Coinbase Business platform [https://www.coinbase.com/en-gb/blog/introducing-coinbase-business-the-all-in-one-financial-platform-for-modern-companies]. * Key takeaways from the "State of Crypto" report [https://www.coinbase.com/en-gb/blog/the-state-of-crypto-the-future-of-money-is-here].

This week, we're tracking Ethereum's continued ascent, which has now seen an incredible 14 consecutive days of ETF inflows. Bullish sentiment is reflected across the board with both ETH and BTC basis trading above 10%, while Bitcoin's market dominance holds strong at 65.45%. We'll also dive into the recent strength in DeFi tokens like UNI, AAVE, and SKY following favorable comments from former SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins, and what this signals for the sector's future.The macro landscape is packed with catalysts. We're monitoring US/China trade talks as the July 9th tariff pause deadline approaches, the progress of the "Big Beautiful Bill" through the House, and a critical week for economic data with US CPI and PPI releases. Markets will also be watching the U.S. 30-year bond auction on Thursday for signals on the economy. The main event this week is our stablecoin focus, with the US Senate reportedly set for a vote on the GENIUS stablecoin bill this Wednesday. We'll explore what's next if it passes and the broader industry momentum, including Circle's IPO, Plasma's $500M raise, and reports of major companies like Apple, X, and Airbnb exploring stablecoin payments.We then turn to corporate crypto adoption, discussing a new Standard Chartered report showing 61 public companies now hold 3.2% of Bitcoin's total supply, and how the market is thinking about the risks associated with these growing treasury strategies. We'll also touch on key Bitcoin Core development around transaction relay policy and what it means for the network's future.In the NFT space, Yuga Labs continues to narrow its focus by sunsetting its DAO to launch APE Co.Finally, in Coinbase news: a new report indicates 60% of Fortune 500 firms are working on blockchain initiatives, Prime has advanced its ETH staking capabilities, the "State of Crypto" event is this Thursday and we share a consumer protection PSA. Topics Covered: * Market Dynamics: * Ethereum's 14-day ETF inflow streak and price ascent. * High ETH & BTC basis (>10%) and BTC Dominance (65.45%). * DeFi token strength (UNI, AAVE, SKY) following Paul Atkins' comments. * Macro & US Policy: * US/China trade talks & July 9th tariff deadline. * Progress of the "Big Beautiful Bill." * Key Economic Data: US CPI, PPI, and the 30-year bond auction. * Stablecoin Deep Dive: * Upcoming US Senate vote on the GENIUS stablecoin bill. * Industry fundraising: Circle IPO, Plasma $500m raise, Noah. * Corporate exploration of stablecoin payments (Apple, X, Airbnb). * Corporate Adoption & Bitcoin Core: * Standard Chartered report: 61 public companies hold 3.2% of BTC. * Risks and strategies for corporate crypto treasuries. * Bitcoin Core development on transaction relay policy. * NFT Ecosystem: * Yuga Labs sunsets DAO to launch APE Co. * Coinbase News: * Report: 60% of Fortune 500 working on blockchain [https://www.coinbase.com/en-gb/blog/the-state-of-crypto-the-future-of-money-is-here]. * Product: Advanced ETH staking capabilities on Prime. * "State of Crypto" on June 12th [https://x.com/coinbase/status/1932097619892769269]. * A consumer protection PSA [https://www.coinbase.com/en-gb/blog/consumer-protection-tuesday-check-your-email-headers]. * Our latest ad - Who’s got the “Price of Housing in Bitcoin” chart [https://x.com/coinbase/status/1931403399041519869]?

Description: This week, we dissect a shifting market landscape: perp funding rates remain moderate, but Ethereum's basis is notably trading above Bitcoin's, fueled by recent momentum and significant ETH ETF inflows, which starkly contrast with current BTC ETF outflows. Among the big movers, we're seeing gains in MKR, UNI, and CRO, while the COIN50 Index has dipped 4% over the past week. We also delve into the technical picture for major assets, commenting on key support and resistance levels. Encouragingly, corporate BTC flows remain strong. On the macro and regulatory front in the US, the "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) has recently passed the House. We are also closely watching a significant week for jobs data; April's JOLTS report is in, and upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls and initial jobless claims will provide a comprehensive overview of the current labor market. Industry news is headlined by the Ethereum Foundation's major overhaul of its R&D division. Now in "wartime mode," the focus is sharply on scaling L1s and L2s, alongside significant improvements to user and developer experience (UX/DX). Meanwhile, corporate crypto accumulation continues unabated. Our onchain deep dive explores the progress of Ethereum's Pectra Upgrade, including developments around EIP-7251 consolidations and a noticeably growing staking queue. For Solana, Anza has announced the Alpenglow consensus protocol. In the DeFi space, we're seeing continued growth from Hyperliquid in the perpetuals market and a significant increase in Gearbox lending TVL. We'll also discuss Loudio's innovative "Initial Attention Offering" model, and note that Coinbase Wallet's Mini Apps are now available in limited beta. Topics Covered: * Market Dynamics: * Perp funding rates & ETH/BTC basis. * ETH ETF inflows vs. BTC ETF outflows. * Big Movers (MKR, UNI, CRO) & COIN50 Index performance. * Commentary on Technicals (including key support/resistance). * Corporate BTC flows. * Macro & Regulatory: * "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) House passage. * Key Jobs Data: JOLTS, upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls & initial jobless claims. * Industry & Corporate News: * Ethereum Foundation's R&D "wartime mode" (L1/L2 scaling, UX/DX focus). * Ongoing corporate crypto accumulation. * Onchain Insights: * Ethereum: Pectra Upgrade progress (EIP-7251, staking queue). * Solana: Anza's Alpenglow consensus protocol announcement. * DeFi Trends: Hyperliquid perp market growth, Gearbox lending TVL increase. * New Models: Loudio's "Initial Attention Offering." Coinbase News: * Wallet Tech: Coinbase Wallet Mini Apps in limited beta Coinbase Research [https://www.coinbase.com/en-gb/institutional/research-insights/research] Host: Ben Floyd, Head of Execution Services Speakers: David Duong, Head of Institutional Research Ben Rodriguez, Senior Protocol Specialist Gregory Sutton, Senior CES Sales Trader

This week, we're diving into Bitcoin's surge to new all-time highs, with funding rates climbing, open interest nearing $100 billion, and BTC dominance holding strong at 61%. We'll explore expectations and market positioning as the major BTC Vegas conference kicks off and examine the bullish signal of the 200-day moving average golden cross. We also discuss how large Bitcoin holders are strategically managing their positions through lending and options. In markets, we compare Solana and Ethereum, including Standard Chartered's $500 SOL initiation and price target. We look at the impending arrival of SOL ETFs & ETPs and the potential for positive flows and arbitrage opportunities. For Ethereum, validators are signaling another gas limit boost, and we note the impressive TVL increase to $119.5 billion over the past month. Also in markets, we cover the COIN50 Index rebalances and its recent strong performance. On the macro front, we analyze Bitcoin demand amidst elevated bond yields, particularly focusing on Japan's significant holdings of US Treasuries. We'll provide an overview of the much-discussed "big beautiful bill" and its potential economic implications. Plus, a look at Bitcoin versus gold through the lens of their unique supply and demand characteristics. Keep an eye on key economic indicators this week with the FOMC minutes due on Wednesday, Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday, and PCE data out on Friday.We also examine the trend of corporates continuing to accumulate Bitcoin, their strategies, and spotlight The Blockchain Group and Strategy. Finally, in Coinbase news, the platform has expanded its altcoin support in Germany, adding RPL, RSR, PENGU, REZ, ATH, SYRUP, PENDLE, and L3. Topics Covered: * Bitcoin Bonanza: All-time highs, funding rates, open interest, 61% market dominance, BTC Vegas conference expectations, 200 DMA golden cross, large holder strategies (lending/overwriting). * OnChain: SOL vs. ETH, Standard Chartered SOL $500 target, impending SOL ETFs/ETPs, Ethereum gas limit boost, TVL increase to $119.5B. * Market Dynamics: COIN50 Index rebalances and strong performance. * Macroeconomic Outlook: BTC demand vs. bond yields (Japan & UST focus), overview of the "big beautiful bill," BTC vs. Gold supply/demand. * Key Economic Indicators: FOMC Minutes (Wednesday), Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday), PCE Data (Friday). * Corporate Crypto Adoption: Continued corporate BTC buying, strategy insights, The Blockchain Group & Strategy. Coinbase News: * Expansion of altcoin support in Germany (RPL, RSR, PENGU, REZ, ATH, SYRUP, PENDLE, L3)

This week, we delve into the significant progress on US/China tariffs announced over the weekend, including reciprocal rate cuts effective May 14th, and discuss how crypto assets reacted during off-market hours, leading to notable moves. In the Bitcoin segment, we analyze ETF flows, question if BTC dominance has peaked, and provide an overview of the OP_RETURN proposal aiming to remove the 83-byte limit. We also touch upon the flows observed on our desk during recent market moves. For Ethereum, we explore its recent price performance and give details on the upcoming Pectra upgrade. Market-wise, we cover the recent momentum in meme coins and other assets that have lagged this year, alongside updates on key technicals and resistance levels. On the macro front, we review the April CPI data, note the absence of tariff impacts in current figures, and discuss a Republican budget bill heading for a House vote on Tuesday, which could introduce more economic stimulus later this year. We provide a crucial update on the stablecoin bill, including the Senate's rejection of the "Genius Act" and the upcoming House vote on the "Stable Act." Despite some positive developments, we consider why the market might be underpricing these and discuss revised timelines potentially pushing into 2025. We also cover recent M&A activity in the stablecoin space, such as the Mountain Protocol acquisition. Further topics include the rise of new companies building Bitcoin treasury solutions for corporates, insights from a strategy conference in Orlando, and Sol Strategies tokenizing part of their capital structure with Superstate. We also highlight Pump.fun's initiative to give back to creators. Finally, we cover major Coinbase news: the agreement to acquire Deribit, the leading crypto options exchange; the launch of 24/7 BTC & ETH futures in the US; a new Coinbase advertisement; sponsorship of the WNBA's Golden State Valkyries; and the release of over 10,000 pages of documents from our ongoing FOIA campaigns. Topics Covered: * Tariffs & Global Trade: US/China tariff reductions, crypto as a weekend proxy, market liquidations. * Bitcoin Deep Dive: ETF flows, BTC dominance, OP_RETURN proposal, desk flow analysis. * Ethereum Insights: Price performance analysis, Pectra upgrade details. * Market Dynamics: Momentum in meme coins & laggards, technical analysis, resistance levels. * Macroeconomic Outlook: April CPI review, potential impact of new Republican stimulus bill. * Stablecoin Legislation: Senate's "Genius Act" rejection, House "Stable Act" vote, revised timelines, market pricing. * Stablecoin Sector News: M&A activity, Mountain Protocol acquisition. * Corporate Crypto Adoption: Growth in BTC treasury solutions, insights from strategy conference. * Ecosystem Innovations: Sol Strategies tokenization, Pump.fun creator revenue sharing. Coinbase News: * Coinbase enters agreement to acquire Deribit [https://x.com/coinbase/status/1920465054568218905]. * Launch of 24/7 BTC & ETH futures in the US [https://x.com/cbFutures/status/1920850444093448225]. * New Coinbase advertisement released [https://x.com/coinbase/status/1921964894892458167]. * Sponsorship of WNBA's Golden State Valkyries [https://x.com/coinbase/status/1921928348118233154]. * Release of 10,000+ pages of documents from FOIA campaigns [https://x.com/iampaulgrewal/status/1920149813489991992].