James Wharton on Reform's Surge and Starmer's Survival

The Purity Test

Over the weekend the BC Conservatives picked the candidate the smart money had written off — and half the commentariat instantly called it a gift to the NDP. We're not convinced. A party that went from a rounding error to Official Opposition in a single election just told us exactly what kind of party it wants to be. What we got into: * The recession nobody can feel. Two negative quarters, a textbook technical recession — and the economists shrugged while Pierre Poilievre reached for the megaphone. We get into which number actually moves a voter, and why 0.1% of GDP isn't it. * A conservative won the Conservative party. Less obvious than it sounds. Kerry-Lynne Findlay ran as the only "true" conservative in the field and made everyone else argue on her turf — a purity test, inside a party stitched together from the refugees of a rival coalition. * "Half the province is tied to a tree; the other half is trying to chop it down." Andrew's field guide to why nobody wins British Columbia as a conservative — you win as a coalition, or you don't win at all. * The transfers that didn't transfer. When the third-place candidate dropped off, a sizable chunk of his vote wouldn't land on either finalist. We dig into what that says about a party with a split personality. * The seat she doesn't have. Can you lead an opposition you can't sit in? The Carney precedent, Andrew's parliamentary traditionalism, and the awkward family math of getting Findlay into the legislature. * A gift to the NDP, or lazy analysis? Cometh the hour, cometh the woman. Or cometh the disaster. We make the case both ways. Also discussed: a Postbag full of Alberta alienation, and the conviction out west that Ottawa abandoned them first; Carney quietly losing an MP over climate policy; Howard Anglin's contrarian case for a looser confederation (my Last Order, linked below); and Andrew rediscovering San Francisco after 26 years, with the brewery that justified the detour. Beating the NDP is the easy part to imagine. The hard part is whether the right can resist its favourite hobby — fighting itself — long enough to get there. Anglin's piece is linked here [https://substack.com/home/post/p-199539897], and the Postbag's always open — find us in the YouTube or Spotify comments.

37 Words: How Alberta's Ballot Question Tilts the Field

Last week, we recorded with Evan Menzies about the brewing Alberta referendum — and within hours of us hitting publish, Premier Smith unveiled the actual ballot question. So we're back at it. It's also the first outing of the revamped format — a number, a postbag question, the deep dive, and last orders. Tell us what you make of it. What we got into: - The 7-point question. New Angus Reid polling shows that simply rewriting Alberta's 37-word ballot question in plain English moves support for staying from 60% to 67%. The wording is doing campaign work — and 51% of Albertans, including 38% of UCP voters, say the official version is confusing. - A listener's smell test. After my conversation with Kyla, a listener asks what actually backs Pierre Poilievre's claim he can do better on the economy. Andrew on why opposition leaders rarely get to prove anything — and why, on credibility right now, Canadians have already chosen. - Carney's "dangerous bluff." The Prime Minister came out swinging this week. Is naming the bluff plainly leadership — or does telling Albertans their vote is undemocratic just hand the Yes campaign exactly the grievance it feeds on? - Why Brexit is the wrong analogy. Andrew calls it sloppy — then uses it himself three times, because Scotland 2014 is the real playbook. Better Together won, but won ugly. Project Fear, the Telegraph's referendum-day Burns poem, and why "you'll be poorer" lands badly on people who already feel poor. - Andrew's best line. "For a lot of separatists, it's not so much they want to leave Canada. They feel Canada's left them." The whole Remain messaging problem in one sentence. - The 25% threshold. I bring in Damon Centola's Change — why 35% Yes, with no campaign yet run, is closer to a 50/50 fight than dismissive eastern punditry wants to admit. Also discussed: Andrew's accidental field trip to Leavenworth, Washington (a town that looks like Bavaria because of a 1960s economic-development study), why people in Vancouver can't walk in a straight line, my pick of Derek Thompson's Plain English on the global fertility crisis, [https://www.theringer.com/podcasts/plain-english-with-derek-thompson/2026/05/15/the-global-fertility-crisis-is-worse-than-you-think] and a brief debate over whether fewer humans on the planet is, on balance, a bad thing.

Alberta Separatism with Evan Menzies

In February, Dave Cournoyer told us Alberta was sliding toward a separation referendum the pro-Canada side wasn't ready to fight. Three months later, the referendum is both stalled and very much alive — a court has locked the separatist petition in a drawer, and the government's backup plan collapsed when it announced a result before the vote happened. So we brought in Evan Menzies — Crestview Strategy VP, former director of communications for the United Conservative Party and the Wildrose caucus before it, with a front-row seat to the 2017 merger that created the UCP. He's spent years mobilizing grassroots support for Alberta's energy sector — so on the separatist base, he isn't guessing. And he's just written the conservative case for staying in Canada, the conversation we really wanted. What we got into: * The gong show, explained. A court ruling, a botched press release, and 700,000 signatures across two petitions — how Alberta ended up with two referendum questions and a constitutional headache. * One question, two messages. "Do you want to leave Canada?" or "Do you want to stay?" — the wording is the whole ballgame, and the gentler version is both the Premier's escape hatch and the separatists' grievance. * The establishment stitch-up. Andrew brings the Scottish and Brexit playbook: block the vote people want, and you don't kill the movement — you grow it. * Gasoline and a match. Evan's sharpest line, on the pitch for a blank-slate constitution — building a country from scratch and hoping it works out "after the explosion." * The pipeline clock. Shovels promised by September 2027, conveniently just before an election. What happens to the temperature if the ground is still frozen? * The conservative case for Canada. Vimy Ridge, a Team Canada jersey, and why Evan thinks giving up on the country is the least conservative thing an Albertan could do. Also discussed: why one in four Albertans you meet arrived in the last five years (we suspect Evan's own boosterism is to blame), the National Energy Program as Alberta's inherited trauma, why a Stéphane Dion unity tour is a federalist's nightmare, and Joseph's campaign to draft Evan as Alberta's next lieutenant governor. Evan's read: the separation debate is mainstream now, the next four months are "a tornado," and the fight that matters may be the election that follows, not this fall's vote. Find Evan's writing on Substack. [https://evanmenzies.substack.com/]

James Wharton on Reform's Surge and Starmer's Survival

Sixty episodes ago, James Wharton came on the show with a Labour government struggling to find its sea legs. 15 months later, Keir Starmer is fighting for his job. So we brought James back. Lord Wharton of Yarm — former Conservative MP for Stockton South, the kind of Red Wall seat Reform now eats for breakfast. What we got into: * Why Starmer probably survives the week. The would-be regicides aren't coordinated, aren't coalescing, and the PM has called their bluff. The catch: being a process-driven lawyer who decides he wants to stay is a survival strategy until it isn't. * The Streeting moment that wasn't. Reports that the Health Secretary tried to see Starmer one-on-one after cabinet, and was told to wait. Why that matters more than it sounds. * The Burnham brand puzzle. Why does the press keep calling the Mayor of Greater Manchester the saviour the Labour Party's been waiting for, when the by-election ground nearest his door just went Green? James and Andrew both served alongside him. Both have thoughts. * Reform's ceiling problem. 1,453 councillors gained, 14 councils taken, breakthroughs in Scotland and Wales — and vote share still down from last year's locals. James on why this might be peak Reform, not the launchpad it looks like. * The non-aggression pact question. Should the Tories cut a deal with Reform? James's answer is emphatic, and Andrew brings in the Canadian comparison — what actually had to happen before Reform and the PCs merged in 2003. * The Carney contrast. James's best line of the episode: Carney is pulling off the trick Starmer was elected to do. Also discussed: why Hackney's transgender-sanctuary-and-Palestine-twinning agenda doesn't speed up the bin collection, why Labour quietly cooled on votes at 16 once 16-year-olds started voting Green, and the evening with Liz Truss we both attended the night before recording. Five-party politics, no majorities anywhere, and a Prime Minister whose own MPs can't decide whether to push him or just let him quietly tip over.

Kyla Ronellenfitsch on the Conservatives' brand problem

For forty years, the Conservative Party owned cost of living. Not anymore — and Kyla Ronellenfitsch has the polling to prove it. This week on Craft Politics: pollster and data scientist Kyla Ronellenfitsch joins Joseph Lavoie to answer whether the CPC has quietly lost its forty-year brand on the economy, with new data showing Mark Carney's Liberals now lead Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives on managing the cost of living. We discuss: * Why the Liberals lead the Conservatives by five points on managing the cost of living, and what that means for a forty-year Conservative brand asset * The favourability ladder and why its order matters more than the horse race * Why Poilievre's rebrand kept snapping back to attack mode, and whether the Davos speech quietly locked in Carney's brand * The narrative reset on young Canadians — the CPC has gone from +35 to +5 with young men in sixteen months Chapters:0:00 — Joseph admits he's been wrong on cost of living1:23 — Is cost of living still Canada's top issue?5:54 — The +5 disaster: how the Liberals took the CPC's brand11:15 — Carney halo vs Poilievre bad vibes14:42 — The Davos speech that wouldn't quit17:29 — The favourability ladder, top to bottom20:25 — Why Poilievre's rebrand snapped back24:41 — Stop saying young Canadians are conservative29:53 — The elder millennial sweet spot35:30 — Avi Lewis and the anti-corporate lane the NDP keeps missing40:42 — The single number to watch in twelve months Find Kyla on Substack: https://relaywithkyla.substack.com [https://relaywithkyla.substack.com]Listen to her podcast Culture Lab on Air Quotes Media — Craft Politics is a cross-border political podcast where Canadian and British experts come on to answer one political question per episode. Co-hosted by Joseph Lavoie (former senior advisor in a Canadian Prime Minister's Office) and Andrew Percy (former UK Conservative MP). Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/craft-politics/id1790715962 [https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/craft-politics/id1790715962]Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Zaw8zZHe7qiFYIby7lKRB [https://open.spotify.com/show/3Zaw8zZHe7qiFYIby7lKRB]Web: https://www.craftpolitics.fm [https://www.craftpolitics.fm] Joseph Lavoie on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/josephlavoie/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/josephlavoie/]Andrew Percy on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrew-percy-b996b431a/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrew-percy-b996b431a/] Guest inquiries: joseph.lavoie@crestviewstrategy.com [joseph.lavoie@crestviewstrategy.com] #CraftPolitics #CanadianPolitics #Polling #PoliticalAnalysis #PoliticalResearch