EJW Audio
An influential article by Jonathan Pekar and 28 other authors published in Science in 2022 claimed that Bayesian analysis of the molecular phylogeny of early SARS-CoV-2 cases indicated that the likelihood that two successful introductions to humans had occurred was greater than the likelihood that just one had occurred. Michael Weissman explains his EJW article [https://econjwatch.org/articles/an-article-in-science-on-covid-origins-contains-a-fundamental-error], which discusses a fundamental error hiding in plain sight and initially pointed out by Angus McCowan. Weissman uses a simple analogy to explain the error. Correcting the error using the data, model, and simulations of the original paper reverses the implication of the analysis-the single-introduction likelihood becomes greater than the two-introductions likelihood. That undermines the article’s supposed support for natural origin. Weissman is interviewed by James M. Robins of Harvard University [https://hsph.harvard.edu/profile/james-m-robins/]. Weissman and Robins discuss the editorial practices at Science, which, they suggest, ought to retract the article.
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