Energy Espresso
What Moves Oil: $40 or $60? On the Energy Espresso Podcast, host Jim Wicklund sits down with Jan Stuart, Global Energy Economist at Piper Sandler, to break down what could actually move oil prices. After talk of $40 oil, Stuart pushes back, arguing it would take a recession-level shock and missteps from OPEC+. Instead, he sees ~$60 with upside, pointing to tight spare capacity, steady demand, and low inventories, while also unpacking LNG volatility and a potential near-term glut. 00:00 Welcome and Guest Intro 00:45 Elevator Oil Trader Story 01:37 Can Oil Hit 40 02:04 Iran Risk and Spare Capacity 02:55 Global Demand Growth Outlook 04:05 Surplus Debate and NGLs 04:20 OPEC Plus Adds Barrels Back 05:44 Thin Spare Capacity Reality 07:26 Just In Case Stockpiling 08:30 Putting a Price Forecast 10:25 Why Not 100 Dollar Oil 11:19 Tier Two Tech Upside 11:57 Oil Price Reality Check 12:50 Global Supply Shifts 13:15 Europe Net Zero Backlash 14:37 LNG Export Boom Risks 15:10 Early Signs Of Glut 17:42 China Power Mix Reality 19:11 Cheap Power Wins 20:07 Clearing LNG With Price 22:31 Tech Squeezes Margins 23:45 Wrap Up And Thanks
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