Enlightenment - A Herold & Lantern Investments Podcast

July 7, 2025 | Season 7 | Episode 26 The financial landscape is shifting dramatically with President Trump's newly signed "Big Beautiful Bill" extending the 2017 tax cuts that were set to expire this December. This sweeping legislation keeps the top tax rate at 37% while expanding the estate tax exemption to a generous $15 million per person ($30 million per couple), providing substantial benefits for wealth transfer planning. For everyday Americans, the bill introduces tax exemptions on tips (up to $1,000) and overtime pay (capped at $12,500 for individuals), though these benefits won't apply to Social Security or Medicare taxes and come with income limitations. Seniors gain a new $6,000 tax deduction, while the SALT cap jumps from $10,000 to $40,000 until 2030—a major relief for residents of high-tax states. Perhaps most intriguing is the creation of "Trump IRAs," government-backed retirement accounts that will receive a one-time $1,000 deposit between 2025-2029. These accounts must invest in index-tracking funds composed primarily of US stocks, with employers able to contribute up to $2,500 without tax implications. Beyond domestic policy, international trade tensions continue brewing. Treasury Secretary Yellen has warned that countries failing to negotiate trade deals by August 1st will face restored April-level tariffs. Meanwhile, financial markets have shown remarkable resilience—the S&P 500 is up 5.5% year-to-date despite significant political polarization and major economic policy shifts. The Federal Reserve now navigates contradictory signals from June's jobs report: 147,000 nonfarm jobs added (above expectations), but with private payrolls increasing by only 74,000 and 130,000 people leaving the workforce entirely. These mixed indicators have markets anticipating a September rate cut rather than July action. As you consider your investment strategy, note the explosion of ETFs—now exceeding 4,000 on the NYSE compared to just 2,400 listed stocks. While offering advantages over traditional mutual funds, specialized ETF products demand careful scrutiny, particularly leveraged offerings that may not perform as expected over longer holding periods. How will these tax changes and market dynamics affect your financial planning? Subscribe now for ongoing insights to keep you ahead of these transformative shifts. ** For informational and educational purposes only, not intended as investment advice. Views and opinions are subject to change without notice. For full disclosures, ADVs, and CRS Forms, please visit https://heroldlantern.com/disclosure ** To learn about becoming a Herold & Lantern Investments valued client, please visit https://heroldlantern.com/wealth-advisory-contact-form Follow and Like Us on Youtube, Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn | @HeroldLantern

June 30, 2025 | Season 7 | Episode 25 The financial landscape of 2025 has been a study in contrasts—headlines scream chaos while markets whisper stability. As we close the first half of the year, this paradox becomes our focal point. Despite a backdrop of Middle East conflicts, Russia-Ukraine escalations, nuclear tensions between India and Pakistan, and significant domestic policy shifts including President Trump's inauguration, major US equity indices have remained surprisingly steady. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained roughly 5%, with mid-caps and small-caps showing modest declines. The Federal Reserve has maintained its benchmark rate at 4.25-4.5%, and oil prices have barely budged. Yet beneath this apparent calm, tectonic shifts are occurring. The US dollar has weakened by 10%, while gold and silver have surged over 23%. Bitcoin has gained 14%. These movements tell a story that headline numbers miss—growing questions about US exceptionalism and fiscal health, particularly as the "Big Beautiful Bill" makes its way through Congress with potential to add $3 trillion to the deficit over the next decade. This evolving landscape creates strategic opportunities across asset classes. Municipal bonds now offer compelling yields with tax-equivalent returns approaching 9% for high-income earners in states like California and New York. The weakening dollar provides unexpected tailwinds for US multinationals like Apple, which derives 64% of its revenue from overseas markets—a complete reversal after years of currency headwinds. For individuals planning retirement, particularly those considering Medicaid strategies for long-term care, the landscape may be changing dramatically. The pending legislation could shift state responsibilities, potentially reducing care quality and necessitating reconsideration of private insurance options. As we navigate the second half of 2025, the key to success may lie in distinguishing between market noise and meaningful signals. The daily headlines will continue to suggest volatility, but the real story may be found in the subtler shifts of currency markets, yield curves, and legislative developments. ** For informational and educational purposes only, not intended as investment advice. Views and opinions are subject to change without notice. For full disclosures, ADVs, and CRS Forms, please visit https://heroldlantern.com/disclosure ** To learn about becoming a Herold & Lantern Investments valued client, please visit https://heroldlantern.com/wealth-advisory-contact-form Follow and Like Us on Youtube, Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn | @HeroldLantern

June 23, 2025 | Season 7 | Episode 24 How do markets respond when geopolitical tensions escalate? Despite US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and ongoing Middle East conflict, investors displayed remarkable calm - demonstrating a pattern we've seen repeatedly where buying during military uncertainties has historically proven profitable. Markets showed minimal movement across global indices, with even traditional safe-haven assets seeing only modest shifts. This pattern highlights an evolving investor psychology: while humanitarian implications remain severe, contained regional conflicts rarely derail broader economic trends. As one analyst noted, the US strikes may even represent a reinforcement of deterrence capabilities through a "peace through strength" doctrine. Behind this surface calm lies significant volatility throughout 2024. While S&P returns rank in just the 24th percentile historically through June, volatility has reached the 89th percentile - creating that roller-coaster sensation without meaningful progress, particularly for mid-cap and small-cap investors still underwater for the year. Beyond immediate tensions, several crucial factors demand investor attention: Federal Reserve policy remains uncertain as Chairman Powell navigates what he calls "a very foggy time"; pandemic-era health insurance subsidies expiring in 2025 could dramatically impact early retirement planning; and traditional energy companies might unexpectedly benefit from AI's massive power requirements. Perhaps most telling is the historical lesson that market dominance is temporary. From US Steel's breakthrough as the first billion-dollar company in 1901 to Apple reaching trillion-dollar status in 2018, transformational companies eventually give way to new innovators. With AI representing the first self-improving technology in human history alongside demographic shifts toward aging populations, tomorrow's market leaders likely emerge from industries we're only beginning to understand. Join us as we navigate these complex crosscurrents and explore what history teaches us about investing amid uncertainty. Subscribe for more insights that help you make informed financial decisions in an increasingly unpredictable world. ** For informational and educational purposes only, not intended as investment advice. Views and opinions are subject to change without notice. For full disclosures, ADVs, and CRS Forms, please visit https://heroldlantern.com/disclosure ** To learn about becoming a Herold & Lantern Investments valued client, please visit https://heroldlantern.com/wealth-advisory-contact-form Follow and Like Us on Youtube, Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn | @HeroldLantern

June 16, 2025 | Season 7 | Episode 23 Financial markets are navigating a complex landscape of geopolitical tensions, monetary policy uncertainty, and technological disruption with remarkable resilience. Despite Israel's strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities triggering initial volatility, investors have demonstrated measured responses – a significant departure from the panicked selling that characterized previous global crises. The Israel-Iran conflict represents a potential flashpoint that could dramatically impact energy markets, with worst-case scenarios potentially driving oil prices to $120-130 per barrel if the Straits of Hormuz were compromised. Yet markets appear to be pricing in a contained conflict, with the VIX "fear gauge" elevated but nowhere near panic levels. As Jim Cramer astutely observed, "Sometimes the hardest thing for a long-term investor to do is to do very little" – advice that captures the disciplined approach many investors are adopting in this uncertain environment. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting promises to provide critical insights through the updated "dot plot" showing FOMC members' interest rate projections. Previous expectations for two rate cuts in 2025 may be revised downward, especially as inflationary pressures persist and geopolitical tensions add further complexity to the economic outlook. Perhaps most fascinating is the technological revolution unfolding in search and information discovery, with Google facing unprecedented competition from AI alternatives like ChatGPT and Perplexity. This shift is creating winners and losers across the digital landscape – companies heavily dependent on search traffic (like Tripadvisor and news sites) are experiencing dramatic declines, while those with direct consumer relationships through apps (like Airbnb and Meta) stand to benefit. For investors seeking shelter from volatility, the fixed income market offers compelling options. Short-term Treasury ETFs yield 4.2-4.3% with minimal risk, while municipal bonds present exceptional value for high-tax-bracket investors, with AAA-rated long-term munis offering taxable-equivalent yields of 8-9%. What's your investment strategy in this complex environment? Are you making tactical adjustments or maintaining long-term discipline? Share your approach and join the conversation about navigating these unprecedented market conditions. ** For informational and educational purposes only, not intended as investment advice. Views and opinions are subject to change without notice. For full disclosures, ADVs, and CRS Forms, please visit https://heroldlantern.com/disclosure ** To learn about becoming a Herold & Lantern Investments valued client, please visit https://heroldlantern.com/wealth-advisory-contact-form Follow and Like Us on Youtube, Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn | @HeroldLantern

June 9, 2025 | Season 7 | Episode 22 The financial world is undergoing a seismic shift that few everyday investors fully grasp. Private credit and private equity markets have exploded from virtually nothing to controlling trillions in assets and thousands of companies—all while operating largely outside traditional regulatory frameworks. We take you on a fascinating journey through Wall Street's innovation cycles, connecting today's private market boom to previous financial revolutions like junk bonds in the 1970s and mortgage-backed securities in the 1990s. Understanding these historical patterns reveals how regulatory changes, market conditions, and Wall Street creativity repeatedly transform investment landscapes—sometimes with dramatic consequences. The numbers are staggering: private equity now controls 11,500 companies (up from just 2,000 in 2000), private credit has ballooned to $1.7 trillion, and venture capital firms manage $1.2 trillion across more than 3,000 firms. Meanwhile, public markets remain comparatively sleepy, with only a handful of significant IPOs this year. Bank executives like JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon express mounting frustration that this massive shift occurred "without any forethought on the part of regulators," creating competitive disadvantages for traditional banks. As this capital migration continues from regulated to less-regulated spaces, investors must consider both opportunities and potential risks. For those navigating today's uncertain markets, we explore defensive stock strategies and highlight companies following the Berkshire Hathaway model of combining insurance operations with strategic investments—including Fairfax Financial Holdings, Markel Group, and Loews—that have delivered impressive long-term returns using variations of Warren Buffett's proven approach. Whether you're concerned about market volatility, curious about alternative investments, or simply trying to understand the forces reshaping finance, this deep dive into private markets provides essential context for making informed investment decisions in an increasingly complex landscape. ** For informational and educational purposes only, not intended as investment advice. Views and opinions are subject to change without notice. For full disclosures, ADVs, and CRS Forms, please visit https://heroldlantern.com/disclosure ** To learn about becoming a Herold & Lantern Investments valued client, please visit https://heroldlantern.com/wealth-advisory-contact-form Follow and Like Us on Youtube, Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn | @HeroldLantern