Are you any less dead if you're murdered by a stochastic terrorist?

Polar Power Projection

The Strait of Hormuz moment makes this an apt time to look at the Bering Strait and the North West Passage. Looking at the proportion of the Arctic littoral that is the coast of Greenland and Canada’s Arctic Archipelago makes it easier to understand the odd fascination that President Trump has annexing this bit or that. As the polar icecaps melt, the route through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago will become more accessible. It will offer a quicker route from the Pacific to East Coast ports in North America, and before long warm water ports in Canada’s North. Shipping to Europe along Russia’s northern coast will give China’s goods a quicker trip to European markets. I’ll link a paper below that suggests that by mid-century ice-strengthened ships will just bash straight on along a gentle curve from Point Barrow Alaska to Barrow-in-Furness.We’re so used to those Mercator projections, where the shapes and relationships around the Arctic littoral are twisted and obscured by the top margin. Also, ‘high north’ latitudes is a bit of an artefact of a Mercator projection. In particular, the narrowness of the Bering Strait and the North West Passage are harder to see on the usual maps. A polar projection, or in this case an azimuthal equal-area projection centred on the North Geographic Pole, can give a much clearer idea. This map from the CIA World Facebook (one of the great gifts the CIA gave the World, along with the writings of Richards Heuer) aligns fairly closely with the map I’m producing using my rather unsophisticated if shiny pencil. Run, do not walk, to read this paper on the subject from the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (USA): https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1214212110 I‘m very conscious that a lot of people listen to this podcast audio-only. If that’s you, consider watching it on the Substack app, or on a browser, just because I spend the first 7 minutes drawing a map. Cartography materials: One sheet Strathmore Bristol 4-ply, my favourite paper; one Kaweco SketchUp 5.6 clutch pencil. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe [https://nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2]

Low Energy Warfare

So, Bibi Netanyahu is on a choke chain: precision strikes against Hamas leadership, apparently OK; attacks against Hizballah apart from the Capital, fine; but nothing that is going to lead to something close to achieving a strategic effect against Iran’s most prized proxy. Remember that moment when KushKoff leaked to Barak Ravid that ‘JD is going to the Super Bowl’? This is the other bookend: Marco Rubio appears to be in charge of Middle East as though he were SecState or something; Mike Needham is now Assistant (Acting) National Security Advisor, and presumably now meant to actually run a national security shop in the White House. Apparently the results from that version of the Super Bowl weren’t optimal. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe [https://nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2]

What's the difference between paying a toll and paying a fee?

I had a fairly random question this afternoon when I came in from an extraordinarily warm morning’s gardening on a holiday Monday. This was my answer. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe [https://nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2]

If you want to send a message ...

I love that the BBC view me as somebody they can invite on to discuss Russia-Ukraine, and then tell me on the call that it’s about a particular case in the broader context of Russian air defence forces and NATO air forces occasionally using electronic warfare on each other to let them know they are unwelcome; or the broader context of Ukraine and Russia putting ordnance onto each other’s capitals. No need to … y’now, send me a set of bullet points or a one-pager.Should I be saying Vlad instead of Ivan? Is Ivan too last-century?This is a freebie post, because the podcast is brief, and because it will be outpaced by events fairly quickly, so making some people wait a day seems to defeat the purpose. Also, the video looks as though I recorded this with wet hair because I did. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe [https://nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2]

A Tale of Two Summits

The Trump-Xi summit was about two things: China getting Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz and America expressing its relaxation at the idea of the People’s Liberation Army crossing the Strait of Formosa. Something I talked about on yesterday’s BBC Arabic spot, which I haven’t developed here, is related to nuclear proliferation in the Western Pacific: the overture for the Putin-Xi summit was a fairly huge nuclear forces exercise involving Russian Strategic Rocket Forces, the Russian Northern Fleet (do they still have the Order of the Red Banner?) and the Russian Pacific Fleet. The fact that I know about this exercise shows that everyone knows about this exercise, and it was intended to demonstrate to all of us that Russia is a nuclear-armed superpower, and that their temporary inability to conduct successful operations in Ukraine or to support allies in the Middle East is irrelevant to that superpower thing. Cast this against: * China’s understanding that one day Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin won’t be President of Russia, there will be instability during a secession period, and China will take advantage of the moment; and * The rational response of nuclear-capable states during the American Recessional to the Western Hemisphere intended by the Trump Administration, will be to say, ‘we’d better get a bomb’. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe [https://nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2]