A Tale of Two Summits

Trump-Netanyahu Götterdämmerung

The Twilight of the Warlords more than the Twilight of the Gods, mind. Last night Binyamin Netanyahu went cap in hand to the President of the United States to ask for permission to defend his country by responding to Iranian attacks with Israeli counterattacks against Iranian national infrastructure. President Trump’s response was to tell him no, at least publicly. The Israeli counterattack was apparently attenuated by this command, if not halted, and designed to exact a price without escalating the conflict. The Iranian attack on Israel was brief, and likewise designed to exact a price for Israeli attacks against Iranian proxy Hizballah in Lebanon. In similar fashion the very limited disobedience from Netanyahu enables Witkoff and Kushner to go back to the Pakistani interlocutors and say, ‘we Americans are ready to be reasonable, but I can barely rein in this maniac Netanyahu!’ I often talk about the American and Israeli domestic political imperatives that drive war against Iran and Hizballah. I have in the past few months talked about the rift between the US and Israel on strategic objectives. Here we see that rift having significant effects. Neither President Trump nor Binyamin Netanyahu engaged Iran with strong strategy: they had vision, or at least vision statements; but unclear strategic pathways on the American side, perhaps clear operational pathways on the Israeli side but poor connections to their strategic aims (no nukes, no missiles, no proxies). They were clear in their risk management: the war would be limited to air power plus Israeli (and perhaps Kurdish) special forces. Apart from that, though; not much. When the going got tough and the Iranians blocked the Strait of Hormuz, we remembered Mike Tyson: ‘Kein Operationsplan reicht mit einiger Sicherheit über das erste Zusammentreffen mit der feindlichen Hauptmacht hinaus.’* Now they’re both going into autumn elections without victories to show for their efforts. Two men would lead their countries in permanent states of war against the implacable and unbeatable, and hold power if not office til their dying day. Each is ready to wave goodbye when the other outlives his usefulness. Each is at risk of appearing to be the tool of the other. Both paddle their respective canoes towards the twilight, occasionally shouting real or fake f-bombs at each other. Netanyahu exits pursued by the public prosecutor and the younger, fitter figure of Naftali Bennet. Who follows President Trump out the door? Perhaps it’s the younger, fitter figure of the Albanian property developer Ivanka Trump, accepting the Republican nomination in 2028, becoming America’s first Jewish president, and birthing the dynasty that Rose Kennedy never could. Xi Jinping will be immensely pleased. He might already know that, in the words of Yogi Berra, ‘tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat’. For people listening to the podcast without video, there is a point at which my phone drops from its perch. I considered taking some time to edit the moment out, but really if I slow down to edit, then I’ll never get the post up! *’No plan ever survives with any certainty past the first time the enemy main force punches you in the mouth.’ This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe [https://nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2]

Polar Power Projection

The Strait of Hormuz moment makes this an apt time to look at the Bering Strait and the North West Passage. Looking at the proportion of the Arctic littoral that is the coast of Greenland and Canada’s Arctic Archipelago makes it easier to understand the odd fascination that President Trump has annexing this bit or that. As the polar icecaps melt, the route through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago will become more accessible. It will offer a quicker route from the Pacific to East Coast ports in North America, and before long warm water ports in Canada’s North. Shipping to Europe along Russia’s northern coast will give China’s goods a quicker trip to European markets. I’ll link a paper below that suggests that by mid-century ice-strengthened ships will just bash straight on along a gentle curve from Point Barrow Alaska to Barrow-in-Furness.We’re so used to those Mercator projections, where the shapes and relationships around the Arctic littoral are twisted and obscured by the top margin. Also, ‘high north’ latitudes is a bit of an artefact of a Mercator projection. In particular, the narrowness of the Bering Strait and the North West Passage are harder to see on the usual maps. A polar projection, or in this case an azimuthal equal-area projection centred on the North Geographic Pole, can give a much clearer idea. This map from the CIA World Facebook (one of the great gifts the CIA gave the World, along with the writings of Richards Heuer) aligns fairly closely with the map I’m producing using my rather unsophisticated if shiny pencil. Run, do not walk, to read this paper on the subject from the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (USA): https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1214212110 I‘m very conscious that a lot of people listen to this podcast audio-only. If that’s you, consider watching it on the Substack app, or on a browser, just because I spend the first 7 minutes drawing a map. Cartography materials: One sheet Strathmore Bristol 4-ply, my favourite paper; one Kaweco SketchUp 5.6 clutch pencil. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe [https://nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2]

Low Energy Warfare

So, Bibi Netanyahu is on a choke chain: precision strikes against Hamas leadership, apparently OK; attacks against Hizballah apart from the Capital, fine; but nothing that is going to lead to something close to achieving a strategic effect against Iran’s most prized proxy. Remember that moment when KushKoff leaked to Barak Ravid that ‘JD is going to the Super Bowl’? This is the other bookend: Marco Rubio appears to be in charge of Middle East as though he were SecState or something; Mike Needham is now Assistant (Acting) National Security Advisor, and presumably now meant to actually run a national security shop in the White House. Apparently the results from that version of the Super Bowl weren’t optimal. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe [https://nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2]

What's the difference between paying a toll and paying a fee?

I had a fairly random question this afternoon when I came in from an extraordinarily warm morning’s gardening on a holiday Monday. This was my answer. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe [https://nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2]

If you want to send a message ...

I love that the BBC view me as somebody they can invite on to discuss Russia-Ukraine, and then tell me on the call that it’s about a particular case in the broader context of Russian air defence forces and NATO air forces occasionally using electronic warfare on each other to let them know they are unwelcome; or the broader context of Ukraine and Russia putting ordnance onto each other’s capitals. No need to … y’now, send me a set of bullet points or a one-pager.Should I be saying Vlad instead of Ivan? Is Ivan too last-century?This is a freebie post, because the podcast is brief, and because it will be outpaced by events fairly quickly, so making some people wait a day seems to defeat the purpose. Also, the video looks as though I recorded this with wet hair because I did. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe [https://nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2]