Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com [https://standardgrain.com/] Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095]Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG] TikTok [https://www.tiktok.com/@grainmarketsandotherstuf] YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff/videos] Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDWjIyULlBc] Boring Weather Market 3:28 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDWjIyULlBc&t=208s] US/China Update 6:30 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDWjIyULlBc&t=390s] "The Funds" 7:41 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDWjIyULlBc&t=461s] China Pathogen Smugglers 8:40 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDWjIyULlBc&t=520s] Fake Screwworm Investigation 🌧️ Rain Falls, Markets Stir, and Trade Talks Heat Up! ⚖️🌽 📍 Weekend Weather Recap Rain favored southern and eastern Corn Belt states including Missouri, IL, IN, OH, KY, TN — plus parts of KS, OK & north TX. While the west looks drier, both the Euro and GFS models suggest near-average rainfall over the next two weeks. 🌦️ Temps stay near-normal this week, with warmer weather possible 8–14 days out. Overall? A benign weather setup to start the week. 📉 🌐 Rare Earths, EVs, and US-China Trade Talks China just approved rare earth mineral exports following a call between Trump and Xi. 🌍 Trade talks kick off today in London as demand surges for key materials used in robotics and EVs. ⚙️🔋 📊 Money Moves: COT Report Highlights "The Funds" slashed their net short in corn by 44k contracts — largest short since Sept! 🌽 They also trimmed soybean and spring wheat positions.  🧪 Fungal Pathogen Fears Debunked Experts downplay the threat of a crop-damaging pathogen smuggled into the US, saying it’s already here, manageable, and not a major food safety risk. 🌾🧬 🐄 Market Manipulation? Screwworm Rumor Sparks Probe Missouri investigates a fake press release claiming New World screwworm was detected. 📉 The false alarm crashed cattle futures and now R-CALF USA wants the CFTC to dig deeper. 🕵️‍♂️ Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe to stay in the loop! 🔔👇

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com [https://standardgrain.com/] Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095]Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG] TikTok [https://www.tiktok.com/@grainmarketsandotherstuf] YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff/videos] Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pu76fj4r_Ss] Soybean/Corn Price Action and Trump 5:24 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pu76fj4r_Ss&t=324s] US Weather 8:45 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pu76fj4r_Ss&t=525s] Cattle Prices Surge 11:46 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pu76fj4r_Ss&t=706s] Export Sales 14:19 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pu76fj4r_Ss&t=859s] Trade Deficit 16:37Jobless Claims 🌱 Soybeans Climb on Trade Hope Soybean futures popped on Thursday! 📈 The July25 contract gained nearly 7¢, settling near $10.52 after a phone call between President Trump and President Xi reignited optimism around US-China trade talks. 🤝 A face-to-face meeting could be next! 🌾 Grains Mixed on Geopolitics Chicago wheat added 2¢ 📊 amid rising Ukraine-Russia tensions, while corn futures ticked higher 🚜 but were capped by sluggish US export demand. 🔥 Drought Monitor Update The Corn Belt stayed mostly dry last week, worsening drought in IA, IL, MO & WI. 🌵 But only 10% of the region remains in drought—down from 32% earlier this year! The High Plains got relief thanks to widespread rains. ☔ 📊 Current Drought Impact: • Corn: 21% • Soybeans: 16% • Winter Wheat: 12% • Spring Wheat: 19% • Cattle: 21% 🐮 Cattle Prices Hit Record Highs! Feeder & live cattle contracts soared to new records! 🚀 Front-month live cattle jumped $4.50 to $222.90, while feeders surged $5.28 to $309.15. Strong fat cattle prices, tight supplies & current feedlots = 🔥 fundamentals. 🚢 US Export Sales Recap • 🌽 Corn: 37M bu – Up 3% W/W, Mexico top buyer • 🌱 Soybeans: 7M bu – Up 33% W/W, Bangladesh top buyer • 🌾 Wheat (25/26): 16M bu – Down 37% W/W, unknown buyers dominate 📉 Record Drop in US Trade Deficit The US trade gap fell by a record $76.7B in April, landing at $61.6B. 📉 Imports plunged 16.3% while exports rose 3% as businesses braced for tariffs. Biggest deficit drops came vs. China, the EU, and Vietnam. 🌍 📈 Jobless Claims Rise Again Initial jobless claims rose to 247K—highest since October. 📊 Continued claims dipped slightly but still sit above 2024 levels. Slowing hiring, trade anxiety, and lower consumer demand = labor market stress. 😬 Don’t forget to like & subscribe for real-time grain market updates! 👇💬

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com [https://standardgrain.com/] Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095]Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG] TikTok [https://www.tiktok.com/@grainmarketsandotherstuf] YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff/videos] Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TH9dagsOGfo] China Problems 3:04 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TH9dagsOGfo&t=184s] Trump and China 4:34 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TH9dagsOGfo&t=274s] US Weather Update 8:26 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TH9dagsOGfo&t=506s] China Crop Pathogen Smugglers 10:37 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TH9dagsOGfo&t=637s] Ethanol Production 12:39 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TH9dagsOGfo&t=759s] NOAA Forecasters 🌾 China’s Wheat Woes, Trade Tensions & Weather Swings! 🇨🇳🌦️ 🔥 Extreme Heat Hits China's Wheat Crop China’s key wheat regions just saw their hottest May since 1961. Some fields suffered yield losses of up to 50% due to drought! 😳🚜 Farmers with irrigation held steady, but questions linger about potential wheat imports.  🛑 Trump vs. Xi: Trade Talks Stalled President Trump called Xi “extremely hard to deal with” as negotiations stall. 😤📞 A possible call could revive talks, but both sides are throwing blame after a May truce unraveled. Stay tuned for updates on this tense trade drama. 🎭📉 🌧️ Corn Belt Forecast Flip Yesterday’s “ultra-dry” GFS outlook? ❌ Probably wrong! New data suggests 82% of normal rainfall in the 8-14 day window. Still, the west looks dry in both GFS and Euro models. 🌽⚠️  🧪 Crop Sabotage? Chinese Nationals Charged Two Chinese citizens face charges for smuggling a crop-damaging fungus—Fusarium graminearum—into the US. 🚨🌾 This pathogen can wreck wheat and poison livestock. Officials say the suspects had studied the fungus back in China. Yikes. ⛽ Ethanol Record! US ethanol production just hit a weekly all-time high: 1.1M barrels/day! 📈💥 Stocks also surged to 24.4M barrels. Strong margins are back, according to Reuters.  🌀 NOAA Fully Staffed Ahead of Hurricane Season Despite federal layoffs, NOAA is ready. 💪🌪️ Commerce Secretary Lutnick says critical positions are being filled after a hiring freeze threatened weather coverage. With a wild hurricane season ahead, that’s good news. 🌊🌬️ Don't forget to like, comment & subscribe for updates every week! 🧠📲✨

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com [https://standardgrain.com/] Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095]Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG] TikTok [https://www.tiktok.com/@grainmarketsandotherstuf] YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff/videos] Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TeetfgV2kFU] GFS Turns Dry 3:13 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TeetfgV2kFU&t=193s] Wildfire Smoke 6:38 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TeetfgV2kFU&t=398s] Ag Barometer 8:59 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TeetfgV2kFU&t=539s] Ukraine Grain Update 10:20 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TeetfgV2kFU&t=620s] White House and Trade 🌦️ Weather Models Diverge & Canadian Smoke Returns! 🌫️ 🌽 Forecast Shift? Some US weather models have trended drier! The latest GFS run shows minimal Corn Belt rainfall in the 8-14 day outlook. But don’t jump the gun—Euro offers a wetter view with near-normal precipitation. Recent rains hit NE, IA, MN, KS, MO, WI & IL. Radar’s active again this morning. 🔥 Wildfire Smoke Update Over 200 wildfires are burning in Canada, with smoke spreading as far south as the Gulf of Mexico. Minnesota is under a statewide air quality alert, while WI and MI face dangerous conditions. Smoke exposure isn't a crop killer short-term, but prolonged haze could hurt yields. 👃🚫🌱 🚜 Farmer Sentiment Rises! The Ag Economy Barometer hit 158 in May—its highest since May 2021! Farmers are feeling better about both the present and future 📈. Worries about tariffs remain, but fewer producers expect major income hits. 🔍  🌾 Ukraine Crop Trouble Ukraine's grain production could fall 10% this season due to weather delays and war disruptions. Oilseed production is also projected lower. Still, Black Sea wheat exports remain stable, and analysts expect nearly 41mmt in grain exports.  🤝 Trade Talks Heat Up The White House is pushing for new trade agreements, urging partners to submit their best offers by today. Countries like Vietnam, Japan & India are in discussions. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are set to return July 8, so negotiations are ramping up fast. 📅 Don't forget to like 👍 and subscribe 🔔 for more updates. Join the conversation in the comments!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com [https://standardgrain.com/] Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095]Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG] TikTok [https://www.tiktok.com/@grainmarketsandotherstuf] YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff/videos] Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PNi0qzT8iaI] Rain on the Radar 2:58 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PNi0qzT8iaI&t=178s] Monday Selloff 4:38 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PNi0qzT8iaI&t=278s] Crop Progress & Conditions 11:11 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PNi0qzT8iaI&t=671s] Weaker US Dollar? 13:02 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PNi0qzT8iaI&t=782s] Crude Rally 14:21 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PNi0qzT8iaI&t=861s] Grain Shipments 🌧️ Stormy Skies and Slumping Soybeans! 🌾 🌩️ Weather Update Radar lit up this morning across the western Corn Belt! Nebraska, Iowa, and parts of the Plains saw active storms. CropProphet expects 1.5" of rain this week, with more on the way next week. Temps look cool out west ❄️ and warm in the east 🔥 — but overall, this remains a non-bullish setup for grains. Some of the driest areas are finally catching a drink! 🌧️🌽 📉 Grain Market Moves Soybeans slid to a 2-month low on improved Brazil outlook and China trade tensions. Corn dipped as growing conditions improved. Wheat bucked the trend, up on a weaker dollar 💵 and Ukraine/Russia tensions. 🌱 Crop Ratings Snapshot Corn: 69% G/E—slight gain from last week, planting 93% done ✅ Soybeans: 67% G/E in initial rating, 84% planted Winter Wheat: 52% G/E—best since 2019! 🌟 Spring Wheat: 50% G/E—up, but still well below average 📉 💵 Dollar Outlook Wall Street banks like Goldman and Morgan Stanley expect a weaker dollar ahead, driven by Fed cuts and Trump’s economic playbook. Foreign currencies may get a boost! 📊📉 🛢️ Oil Bounces Back Crude rallied 3% to $62.52/barrel 🚀 on OPEC+ decisions and a falling US rig count. Still down YTD, but experts say cuts could tighten supplies. 🚢 Export Action Corn: 62M bu—beat expectations! Soybeans: 10M bu—down from last year Wheat: 20M bu—strong vs. a year ago 👍 Like, 💬 comment, and 🔔 subscribe for more grain market breakdowns every week!