Highway to Hill
On this week’s episode of Highway to Hill: It’s party primary season across a whole bunch of states. Quite a few high-profile incumbents have been ousted or are clearly in trouble thanks to endorsements (or non endorsements) from Donald Trump. Is the president’s star power in the GOP enough to keep them save in the midterms, or is he just adding to the Republicans’ electoral problems? Plus, some polisci on why the incumbency advantage just ain’t what it used to be. This week’s syllabus 📚 * “Christian Menefee leads Al Green by 7 percentage points in latest poll ahead of TX-18 Democratic runoff [https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/politics/election-2026/2026/05/12/551511/houston-primary-runoff-election-poll-menefee-green-mealer-cain/]” (Andrew Schneider, Texas Public Media) * “Senate advances resolution to end Iran war as GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy flips to support it [https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/senate-advances-resolution-end-iran-war-trump-bill-cassidy-rcna346001]” (Sahil Kapur, NBC News) * “Massie’s primary is the most expensive in history. Pro-Israel groups have played a huge part. [https://www.politico.com/news/2026/05/17/massie-aipac-record-spending-israel-maga-trump-primary-00925375?user_id=66c4bd1e5d78644b3a9af247&utm_medium=email&utm_placement=newsletter&utm_source=join1440]” (Lisa Kashinsky, POLITICO) * “Republican Senators Are Livid at Trump’s Endorsement of Paxton [https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/19/us/politics/republican-senators-trump-paxton.html]” (Michael GoldMegan Mineiro and Carl Hulse, The New York Times) * “How Andy Barr out-maneuvered Kentucky’s warring factions to win Trump’s endorsement — and probably a Senate seat [https://www.politico.com/news/2026/05/19/kentucky-senate-seat-andy-barr-00927068]” (, POLITICO) * “GOP Senate primaries in Georgia and Alabama head to June runoffs [https://rollcall.com/2026/05/20/gop-senate-primaries-in-georgia-and-alabama-head-to-june-runoffs/]” (Daniela Altimari and Mary Ellen McIntire, Roll Call) * “It’s Nothing Personal: The Decline of the Incumbency Advantage in US House Elections [https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/681670]” (Gary Jacobson, The Journal of Politics) * “Former Rep. Barney Frank dead at 86 [https://rollcall.com/2026/05/20/former-rep-barney-frank-dead-at-86/]” (Niels Lesniewski, Roll Call) * “Mysterious Meddling in Democratic Primaries Has G.O.P. Fingerprints [https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/12/us/politics/gop-mystery-pac-midterms.html]” (Shane Goldmacher, The New York Times) This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit highwaytohill.substack.com [https://highwaytohill.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]
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