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In 1971, Boeing laid off 44,000 engineers in 18 months. The aerospace industry is still paying for it — they're projecting a shortage of over a million engineers by 2030, and the cohort that would now be the senior bench was simply never hired. Last year, S&P 500 companies cut 400,000 jobs — the first net decline since 2016 — and the specific pattern of who's being cut, and why, looks uncomfortably familiar. At firms that adopted AI, junior employment fell 7 to 10% within six quarters. Senior employment kept rising. The pipeline isn't slowing. It's stopping. In this episode of In The Loop, I'm working through the data on junior employment at AI-adopting firms, the economic logic that makes cutting entry-level roles feel rational, and why I think that logic is setting up a shortage that will look obvious in hindsight. I also take on Tim O'Reilly's counter-argument — his historical case that every programming wave expanded demand rather than destroyed it — and explain why I think he's right about 2035 and wrong about the cohort that's supposed to get there. ⏭️ Episode highlights (01:15) – The Boeing billboard and what it cost (03:00) – 400,000 jobs: where the cuts are concentrated (05:00) – Why junior work is separable — and senior work isn't(07:00) – The radiology lesson: why strong bundles hold (08:45) – O'Reilly's wave argument and the Jevons paradox (11:30) – Where the optimistic case runs out of road (13:00) – The 43-point gap: atrophy you can't feel (14:45) – IBM, Publicis, and who's betting on the pipeline 🔗 Links & resources * Boeing Bust (1969–1971) — HistoryLink.org: https://www.historylink.org/file/20923 [https://www.historylink.org/file/20923] * ISG — Aerospace and defense talent gap by 2030: https://isg-one.com/articles/why-the-aerospace-and-defense-industry-faces-a-million-person-talent-gap-by-2030---and-what-it-means-for-innovation [https://isg-one.com/articles/why-the-aerospace-and-defense-industry-faces-a-million-person-talent-gap-by-2030---and-what-it-means-for-innovation] * Hosseini & Lichtinger, "Generative AI as seniority-biased technological change" (SSRN, Aug 2025): https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5425555 [https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5425555] * Brynjolfsson, Chandar & Chen, "Canaries in the coal mine?" (Stanford Digital Economy Lab, Aug 2025): https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/publication/canaries-in-the-coal-mine-six-facts-about-the-recent-employment-effects-of-artificial-intelligence/ [https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/publication/canaries-in-the-coal-mine-six-facts-about-the-recent-employment-effects-of-artificial-intelligence/] * Tim O'Reilly, "The end of programming as we know it": https://www.oreilly.com/radar/the-end-of-programming-as-we-know-it/ [https://www.oreilly.com/radar/the-end-of-programming-as-we-know-it/] * Tim O'Reilly & Aaron Levie, "The world needs more software engineers" (Apr 2026): https://www.oreilly.com/radar/the-world-needs-more-software-engineers/ [https://www.oreilly.com/radar/the-world-needs-more-software-engineers/] * Tim O'Reilly, "The missing half of the AI economy": https://www.oreilly.com/radar/ai-and-the-next-economy/ [https://www.oreilly.com/radar/ai-and-the-next-economy/] If you enjoyed this episode, rate, follow, and share. It helps others stay ahead of the latest AI trends. 🤝 We're social Stay in the loop, even when you're not listening to this podcast. Jack Houghton * LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-houghton1/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-houghton1/] * TikTok - @jackschats Mindset AI * Mindset AI website - https://bit.ly/40lJr6B [https://bit.ly/40lJr6B] * Newsletter - https://bit.ly/ITLnewsletter [https://bit.ly/ITLnewsletter] * LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mindset-ai/ [https://www.linkedin.com/company/mindset-ai/] * YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@GetMindsetAI [https://www.youtube.com/@GetMindsetAI] * TikTok - @get.mindset.ai
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