Lead-Lag Live

The quest for true portfolio diversification often feels impossible in today's market environment. When volatility strikes, traditional "alternatives" tend to move in lockstep with equities, undermining their diversification benefits. But what if there existed an asset class with genuine structural independence from equity markets? Enter the carbon credit market – perhaps the ultimate alternative investment. With a remarkably low 0.3 correlation to US equities, carbon markets offer double the potential returns of the S&P 500 while operating on completely different cycles. Unlike most investments vulnerable to economic downturns, carbon markets feature government-mandated demand, steadily decreasing supply, and in California's case, a floor price that increases by inflation plus 5% annually – approximately 8% in today's environment. This trillion-dollar market remains largely unknown to mainstream investors despite covering 25% of the global economy. Companies across Europe, California, the UK, and other regions must purchase carbon permits corresponding to their emissions by law. As governments tighten these markets to meet climate goals through 2050, the structural pressure on prices creates a compelling investment case completely disconnected from traditional market dynamics. Luke Oliver of KraneShares explains how carbon investments like KRBN (global carbon), KCCA (California carbon), and KEUA (European carbon) can transform portfolio construction. Typically allocated at 2-4% of portfolios (though some institutions go up to 8%), carbon exposure provides diversification previously available only to endowments and family offices. For investors searching for alternatives that actually behave differently from stocks during market stress, carbon credits offer a unique opportunity backed by regulatory frameworks rather than sentiment. Ready to diversify beyond the traditional 60/40 portfolio? Explore how carbon markets might be the missing piece in your investment strategy – offering genuine diversification with substantial return potential in a world where true alternatives have become increasingly scarce. With ChatDOC, instantly analyze professional documents using  AI — featuring word-level citations, chart/formula breakdowns, cross-file query, and full support for PDFs/epub/scanned files. Free version handles 10 documents (up to 3000 pages) and cross-searches 30 files. Click the link below to unlock +10 document slots : https://chatdoc.com?src=leadlaglive [https://chatdoc.com/?src=leadlaglive]  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive [http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive]. Foodies unite…with HowUdish! It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world! Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups! HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world. So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show [ht

Phillip Toews, founder of Toews Asset Management, delivers a master class in portfolio construction that challenges everything you thought you knew about investing. Drawing from historical market catastrophes often ignored by conventional wisdom, Toews reveals how a traditional 60/40 portfolio would have been devastated during the Great Depression – losing up to 72% of its value and remaining down over 60% after thirteen years. This eye-opening conversation explores the concept of "adaptive fixed income" as Toews walks us through the little-discussed bond bear market from 1945 to 1981 that eroded investor wealth by 21% in real terms. With high sovereign debt levels globally and unprecedented monetary policy responses, Toews suggests we may be vulnerable to currency debasement rather than traditional market dynamics. The heart of Toews' philosophy lies in his revolutionary approach to behavioral finance. Rather than starting with conventional portfolios and coaching investors through volatility, he advocates designing "all-weather" portfolios from the ground up that address both economic and psychological needs. His hedged equity approach aims to capture most market upside while dramatically limiting participation in downturns, potentially allowing investors to maintain positions during crashes and capitalize on eventual recoveries. Toews introduces the concept of "corona bias" – just as society was unprepared for a pandemic despite historical precedent, investors ignore financial catastrophes outside their professional lifetimes. This collective amnesia leaves portfolios vulnerable to recurrences of historical calamities. Whether you're an investment professional seeking to differentiate your practice or an individual investor concerned about today's complex market environment, this conversation provides a roadmap for building portfolios designed to withstand various economic scenarios while managing the crucial behavioral aspects of investing. Discover why Toews' recently published book "The Behavioral Portfolio" is changing how advisors approach client relationships and portfolio construction. With ChatDOC, instantly analyze professional documents using  AI — featuring word-level citations, chart/formula breakdowns, cross-file query, and full support for PDFs/epub/scanned files. Free version handles 10 documents (up to 3000 pages) and cross-searches 30 files. Click the link below to unlock +10 document slots : https://chatdoc.com?src=leadlaglive [https://chatdoc.com/?src=leadlaglive]  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive [http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive]. Foodies unite…with HowUdish! It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world! Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups! HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world. So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show [ht

Warren Buffett himself called our economy "asset light" – and for good reason. Today's most valuable companies derive their worth not from factories or equipment, but from intellectual property, brand equity, human capital, and network effects. Yet traditional value investing metrics, developed in the industrial era of railroads and utilities, completely miss these crucial drivers of modern business value. Kai Wu, founder and CIO of Sparkline Capital, takes us on a fascinating journey through the evolution of value investing and explains why it's due for a radical update. With 50-80% of US company balance sheet value now coming from intangible assets, investors relying solely on price-to-book ratios find themselves increasingly unable to identify true value in today's markets. The problem extends beyond mere definition. Our accounting standards systematically distort company valuations by expensing rather than capitalizing R&D and other intangible investments. This creates the paradoxical situation where companies investing heavily in their future appear less profitable in the present – a disconnect that creates tremendous opportunity for investors willing to look deeper. Sparkline's innovative approach leverages artificial intelligence and big data to analyze unstructured information sources, from patent filings to social media, quantifying what traditional financial statements miss. This methodology bridges the growing divide between growth and value investors, applying timeless valuation principles to the digital economy. Wu shares a compelling case study of NVIDIA, which Sparkline owned when it traded at a seemingly astronomical P/E ratio of 100. After adjusting for NVIDIA's extraordinary intellectual property and innovative culture, their models showed the stock was actually undervalued – a perspective completely missed by traditional metrics. For investors looking to apply these insights, Sparkline offers two ETFs: ITAN for US markets and DTAN for international developed markets. Both funds seek companies rich in intangible assets but trading at reasonable valuations – essentially value investing adapted for the digital age. Want to dive deeper into Kai's research? Visit sparklinecapital.com to explore his published papers and learn more about investing in the intangible economy. With ChatDOC, instantly analyze professional documents using  AI — featuring word-level citations, chart/formula breakdowns, cross-file query, and full support for PDFs/epub/scanned files. Free version handles 10 documents (up to 3000 pages) and cross-searches 30 files. Click the link below to unlock +10 document slots : https://chatdoc.com?src=leadlaglive [https://chatdoc.com/?src=leadlaglive]  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive [http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive]. Foodies unite…with HowUdish! It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world! Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups! HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world. So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show [ht

The global investment landscape is shifting beneath our feet, yet most investors remain fixated on US markets. Rohit Goel, Partner and Head of Global Macro at Breakout Capital, reveals why this myopia could prove costly in the years ahead. Rohit drives home an alarming point: US fiscal deficits running at 6.5-7% of GDP during economic expansion represent an understated risk that markets have largely ignored. "If it is any other country on this planet, you would see a reaction, whether in bond yields or currency," he explains. This fiscal vulnerability could eventually force global investors to demand higher risk premiums on US assets, catalyzing capital flows toward international alternatives. Where might this capital flow? Rohit points to markets starved of investment for fifteen years – Europe, Japan, and particularly emerging markets. Latin America stands at an inflection point with elections potentially delivering reform-minded leadership across major economies. Poland's investment-focused policies create another bright spot, while frontier markets from Nigeria to Sri Lanka implement meaningful reforms after pandemic-era financing constraints forced hard choices. Perhaps most valuable is Rohit's framework for emerging market investing: "In emerging markets, 65% of returns are attributable to country selection." Unlike developed markets where sector selection drives performance, getting the country right is paramount in emerging spaces. And while liquidity remains challenging, patient investors with two-to-five-year horizons stand to benefit as capital eventually follows performance. Rohit also dispels a common misconception about dollar cycles. The currency's likely depreciation over the next several years represents a normal economic cycle unrelated to reserve currency status. Since 1975, the dollar has experienced multiple significant bear markets without losing its position in the global financial architecture. For investors willing to look beyond US borders, the coming years may offer extraordinary opportunities in markets long overlooked by global capital. The question is whether you'll position yourself ahead of this potential sea change or chase it after it's already underway. With ChatDOC, instantly analyze professional documents using  AI — featuring word-level citations, chart/formula breakdowns, cross-file query, and full support for PDFs/epub/scanned files. Free version handles 10 documents (up to 3000 pages) and cross-searches 30 files. Click the link below to unlock +10 document slots : https://chatdoc.com?src=leadlaglive [https://chatdoc.com/?src=leadlaglive]  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive [http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive]. Support the show [https://www.buzzsprout.com/2034153/support]

Remember when trading meant calling your broker and waiting an hour just to find out if your order was filled? That world is gone. JJ Kinahan, CEO of IG North America (parent company of Tasty Trade), shares how the playing field has fundamentally changed for retail traders. With 21 years of experience trading on the Chicago Board Options Exchange and leadership roles at major brokerages, JJ offers rare insight into this transformation. Today's retail traders wield professional-grade tools, instant executions, and information flows that rival institutional capabilities. The most dramatic shift? Options trading is no longer exclusive to professionals. As JJ explains, "Options are giant probabilities" that can be used strategically when traders understand the risks involved. The conversation explores a fascinating retail trading psychology: during market uncertainty (like the recent "tariff tantrum"), traders initially flock to broad ETFs like SPDR and QQQ, gradually returning to individual stocks as confidence rebuilds—starting predictably with Microsoft and Meta. This behavioral pattern offers valuable signals about market sentiment that even professionals watch closely. For new traders, JJ's advice is refreshingly straightforward: start with one contract, know your personal risk tolerance, and understand why you're entering each trade. "The easiest thing in the world is to risk more money. The hardest thing is to risk a lot, lose it, and then get into a bad cycle where you feel you have to make it back." Looking ahead, the trading landscape continues evolving toward 24/7 access, with Tasty Trade launching 24-5 equity trading by June. This shift reflects growing global interest in US markets and the expectation that investors should be able to react to news in real-time, regardless of time zone. Ready to level up your trading knowledge? Explore how defining your risk parameters might be the most important skill you can develop as a trader. With ChatDOC, instantly analyze professional documents using  AI — featuring word-level citations, chart/formula breakdowns, cross-file query, and full support for PDFs/epub/scanned files. Free version handles 10 documents (up to 3000 pages) and cross-searches 30 files. Click the link below to unlock +10 document slots : https://chatdoc.com?src=leadlaglive [https://chatdoc.com/?src=leadlaglive]  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive [http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive]. Foodies unite…with HowUdish! It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world! Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups! HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world. So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show [ht