How the worst oil crisis ever recorded could end in energy abundance, with Claudio Galimberti

How the worst oil crisis ever recorded could end in energy abundance, with Claudio Galimberti

Join us for our annual Summits in Singapore, Houston and London: https://rystad.info/3SfZuBC [https://rystad.info/3SfZuBC]   Let’s Talk Energy and assess the possible long-term impacts of the war in the Middle East. The conflict has brought the geopolitics of energy and near-term market disruptions into sharp focus, as the world struggles with higher oil and natural gas prices and tighter supplies overall.   But underlying fundamentals, which pointed to growing oversupply in both oil and, to a lesser extent, gas markets, persist despite war-driven distortions.   And while no one can predict how long it could take for the US and Iran to reach an agreement to resolve the war, the two sides continue to negotiate and – at times – say they are making progress.  How long could the war-driven shortages and price inflation that we see today persist after the US and Iran reach some sort of agreement to end the conflict and fully re-open the Strait of Hormuz?  What changes to energy trade flows or policies could be more lasting and what shifts might be less durable as countries and markets digest this shock and steel themselves against future ones?  Which factors will be most important to watch to determine how the world ultimately recovers from a massive shock to the energy system?    Related Analysis  House View Report – Third Edition [https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/719383?qid=5e6c6eba62b2b08c895bec4ca74f6229&oid=doc_719383] (clients only)   House View Report [https://www.rystadenergy.com/insights/house-view-interim-report] (available to non-clients)  Qatar and UAE LNG outlook shifts with new House View scenarios [https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/715219?qid=5e6c6eba62b2b08c895bec4ca74f6229&oid=doc_715219] (clients only)  Middle East crisis delays but won't derail the renewable transition [https://www.rystadenergy.com/insights/middle-east-crisis-delays-but-wont-derail-the-renewable-transition] (available to non-clients)  Navigator: A busy China [https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/719687?qid=59ee3ae4b7d5f2fba25a0256abb18f4a&oid=doc_719687] (clients only)    Related Episodes   Energy insecurity is changing the case for renewables [https://www.rystadenergy.com/podcasts/energy-insecurity-is-changing-the-case-for-renewables-with-vegard-vollset] Asia's oil scramble is reshaping crude markets [https://www.rystadenergy.com/podcasts/asias-oil-scramble-is-reshaping-crude-markets-with-lin-ye-and-priya-walia]  Jet fuel markets and the Middle East war [https://www.rystadenergy.com/podcasts/jet-fuel-markets-and-the-middle-east-war-with-susan-bell]  Why Iranian oil could be the biggest energy story of the decade [https://www.rystadenergy.com/podcasts/why-iranian-oil-could-be-the-biggest-energy-story-of-the-decade]    Let’s Talk Energy is a Rystad Energy [http://www.rystadenergy.com/] Production.    Produced by Elliot Busby & Både Og [https://badeog.no/].    Executive producers: Noah Brenner, Elliot Busby, Evodie Fleury-Greaker & Erik Means.    Follow us on:   LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/rystad-energy/]    YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@Rystad.Energy]    Instagram [https://www.instagram.com/rystad_energy/]    X [https://x.com/RystadEnergy]

Why Iranian oil could be the biggest energy story of the decade, with Aditya Saraswat

Join us for our annual Summits in Singapore, Houston and London: https://rystad.info/3PEAT8X [https://rystad.info/3PEAT8X]  Let’s Talk Energy and looks at the implications of the Middle East war on the region’s oil and gas industries. The disruptions from the war are being felt across the globe daily, but the longer-term impacts on the region could be even more significant. The disruptions from the war in the Middle East are being felt across the globe daily, but the longer-term impacts on the most important oil and gas-producing region in the world could be even more significant. In the near-term, countries will work to repair damaged infrastructure and restart delayed projects, while pushing ahead with plans to expand capacity. Looking ahead, upstream dynamics in the region have already changed following the departure of the UAE from OPEC and further shifts are likely as countries navigate a complex economic and geopolitical climate.   Has the war between the US and Iran changed the outlook for the upstream industry in the Middle East, and how long could it take to bring back shut production?  How are countries around the Gulf pursuing options to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, and just how much oil and gas could find alternative ways to market?  Will this experience change the way international and national oil companies from outside the region look at investment there as they seek to replenish their own dwindling reserves?    Related Analysis  Gulf war leaves $58 billion repair bill and a global equipment crunch [https://www.rystadenergy.com/insights/gulf-war-repair-bill-supply-chain-equipment-crunch] (available to non-clients)  UAE’s first post-OPEC move – Double the Hormuz bypass by 2027  [https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/716281?qid=b917110b1909148d7f1400fa3fe43361&oid=doc_716281](clients only)  Asia's Energy Buyers: Between a Rock and a Hard Place [https://www.rystadenergy.com/insights/asias-energy-buyers-between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place] (available to non-clients)  Iraq lands surprise Qurnain frontier oil prize amid Middle East shut-ins  [https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/716259?qid=b917110b1909148d7f1400fa3fe43361&oid=doc_716259](clients only)  Western majors’ Middle East portfolios take hit from Gulf crisis  [https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/698337?qid=b917110b1909148d7f1400fa3fe43361&oid=doc_698337](clients only)  Friction to fracture: UAE cuts free of OPEC – who wins, who loses, who’s next? [https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/715173?qid=b917110b1909148d7f1400fa3fe43361&oid=doc_715173] (clients only)    Related Episodes   How the Middle East war is reshaping Asia’s upstream strategy, with Prateek Pandey [https://www.rystadenergy.com/podcasts/how-the-middle-east-war-is-reshaping-asias-upstream-strategy]  Could Middle East conflict break energy supply chains? With Matthew Fitzsimmons [https://www.rystadenergy.com/podcasts/could-middle-east-conflict-break-energy-supply-chains]  Middle East escalation and the scramble for LNG, with Sindre Knutsson [https://www.rystadenergy.com/podcasts/middle-east-escalation-and-scramble-of-lng]  Let’s Talk Energy is a Rystad Energy [http://www.rystadenergy.com/] Production.    Produced by Elliot Busby & Både Og [https://badeog.no/].    Executive producers: Noah Brenner, Elliot Busby, Evodie Fleury-Greaker & Erik Means.    Follow us on:   LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/rystad-energy/]    YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@Rystad.Energy]    Instagram [https://www.instagram.com/rystad_energy/]    X [https://x.com/RystadEnergy]

The AI arms race has a critical minerals problem, with Michael Walshe and Jeff Dickerson

Join us for our annual Summits in Singapore, Houston and London: https://rystad.info/49X79uF [https://rystad.info/49X79uF] Let’s Talk Energy and dig into the increasingly contentious world of critical minerals. These materials, and particularly rare earth elements, have vaulted to the forefront of the growing intersection between energy and security, forcing the West to reckon with China’s almost complete dominance of a sector that is the building block for everything from renewable power generation and batteries to computer chips and radar systems. The US and many of its allies are trying to rapidly develop a viable alternative supply chain through a combination of industrial policy, trade diplomacy and innovation. While seen as a critical issue for both countries, the summit between China’s President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump resulted in no concrete advances in trade policy, leaving an uneasy truce between the two sides.  How did China become so dominant in mining and processing critical minerals, particularly rare earth elements and how is it using this leverage?  How can the West begin to close the gap and why are new approaches needed for non-Chinese companies to compete?  What does a viable critical minerals industry in the West look like, and how long could it take to develop?   Related Analysis  Putting things in perspective: Data center investments now on par with renewables, oil and gas [https://www.rystadenergy.com/insights/putting-things-in-perspective-data-center-investments-now-on-par-with-renewables] (available to non-clients)   Battery Metals Weekly: US zeros in on independent critical minerals supply [https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/670835?qid=3b7f80a1f9e0d105c328978e7c5c173f&oid=doc_670835] (clients only)  Battery Metals Weekly: US eyes recycling for critical mineral independence [https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/648889?qid=3b7f80a1f9e0d105c328978e7c5c173f&oid=doc_648889](clients only)  Tariff update: Tariff politics intensify as G7 mineral bloc forms [https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/647391?qid=3b7f80a1f9e0d105c328978e7c5c173f&oid=doc_647391] (clients only)  Related Episodes   Will power-hungry data centers overwhelm the grid? [https://www.rystadenergy.com/podcasts/will-power-hungry-data-centers-overwhelm-the-grid]  Winners and losers in Trump’s energy agenda [https://www.rystadenergy.com/podcasts/winners-and-losers-in-trump-s-energy-agenda-with-mike-mccormick]  Let’s Talk Energy is a Rystad Energy [http://www.rystadenergy.com/] Production.    Produced by Elliot Busby & Både Og [https://badeog.no/].    Executive producers: Noah Brenner, Elliot Busby, Evodie Fleury-Greaker & Erik Means.    Follow us on:   LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/rystad-energy/]    YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@Rystad.Energy]    Instagram [https://www.instagram.com/rystad_energy/]    X [https://x.com/RystadEnergy]

Running on empty: How the Middle East war is squeezing jet fuel markets, with Susan Bell

Join us for our annual Summits in Singapore, Houston and London: https://rystad.info/48VVL1M [https://rystad.info/48VVL1M] Let’s Talk Energy and take the pulse of the aviation industry as it struggles to source enough fuel as the Middle East war dries up global supplies.    Airlines are facing their biggest test since Covid. While Brent futures are up 70+% this year, jet fuel prices have doubled in Europe and risen 110% in Asia over 2025 averages.   The situation caused the CEO of United Airlines to warn ticket prices could increase by about 20%. Lufthansa canceled 20,000 flights that it said were no longer profitable.  US budget carrier Spirit Airlines stopped flying altogether after declaring bankruptcy. And finally, Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), warned that Europe could start running out of jet fuel in as little as six weeks.    How has the war hit jet fuel supplies, and why has the price squeeze been even worse for jet than for crude?   How are refiners reacting to the shortage, and do high prices necessarily mean high margins for the sector?   What can countries do – short of grounding flights – to manage this market and help consumers cope with the runup in prices?     Related Analysis  Special Report #4: Middle East conflict implications [https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/715227?qid=630f0b55fc44cf2c92bd55cc012482fd&oid=doc_715227] (available to non-clients)  Hormuz crisis reshapes clean fuel investment across the transportation space [https://www.rystadenergy.com/insights/hormuz-crisis-reshapes-clean-fuel-investment-across-the-transportation-space] (available to non-clients)  AusFuel Monitor: Emergency cargoes steady Australia jet-fuel supply for now [https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/715389?qid=3a7ab30ec81f3eb415b0cdda5532d394&oid=doc_715389] (clients only)   Weekly insight: Europe’s jet-fuel market tightens as replacements fall short [https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/715129?qid=3a7ab30ec81f3eb415b0cdda5532d394&oid=doc_715129] (clients only)  Weekly insight: Middle East strikes force jet fuel cracks to soar  [https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/693367?qid=3a7ab30ec81f3eb415b0cdda5532d394&oid=doc_693367](clients only)    Related Episodes   What China’s oil stockpiling means for OPEC+, prices and global trade, with Lin Ye [https://www.rystadenergy.com/podcasts/what-chinas-oil-stockpiling-means-for-opec-prices-and-global-trade]  The Hormuz crisis and the real cost of a barrel of oil [https://www.rystadenergy.com/podcasts/the-hormuz-crisis-and-the-real-cost-of-a-barrel-of-oil-with-paola-rodriguez-masiu]  Asia's oil scramble is reshaping crude markets [https://www.rystadenergy.com/podcasts/asias-oil-scramble-is-reshaping-crude-markets-with-lin-ye-and-priya-walia]    Let’s Talk Energy is a Rystad Energy [http://www.rystadenergy.com/] Production.    Produced by Elliot Busby & Både Og [https://badeog.no/].    Executive producers: Noah Brenner, Elliot Busby, Evodie Fleury-Greaker & Erik Means.    Follow us on:   LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/rystad-energy/]    YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@Rystad.Energy]    Instagram [https://www.instagram.com/rystad_energy/]    X [https://x.com/RystadEnergy]

Asia's oil scramble is reshaping crude markets, with Lin Ye and Priya Walia

This episode was recorded on Thursday, 30 April 2026. Join us for our annual Summits in Singapore, Houston and London: https://rystad.info/4dgjr2q [https://rystad.info/4dgjr2q] Let’s Talk Energy and look at how oil-importing countries in Asia are coping with the loss of vital Middle East supply as benchmark prices hit four-year highs above $120. Following the start of the war in the Middle East, many refiners in Asia, who are the largest buyers of barrels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, have spent the two months scrambling to find alternative supplies and bidding up spot cargoes of certain grades. But, at least in one country, that is changing. Recently, China’s refiners have flipped their approach and are selling cargoes back into the market, as export curbs, price controls and price-sensitive consumers hurt the economics of turning the crude into fuel. The change comes at a time when so-called alternative supplies, including those from Russia and Iranian cargoes that had continued to transit until the most recent US blockade of Hormuz, come under increasing pressure. But first, we look at the dynamics surrounding the departure of the UAE from Opec+ and how it could impact the markets in the near-term and further into the future.   How are major Asian importers finding the barrels they need at a price they can afford, while also shielding consumers from higher fuel costs?  How has China’s strategic shift impacted both physical and futures markets and how might we expect that behavior to evolve?   And will sanctions on one of China’s largest teapot refineries create a bidding war with Indian refiners over a limited available volume of Russian barrels.     Related Analysis  China resells crude as Asia absorbs the supply shock unevenly [https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/715013?qid=eacb7d8f2fc644d972a04af67e7e62b3&oid=doc_715013] (clients only)  The oil chokepoint: China’s evolving playbook for Strait of Hormuz crisis [https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/695363?qid=1be05808bf21fa120312eb6f37b7e5ce&oid=doc_695363]  (clients only)  The UAE's exit and the limits of OPEC+ control: Special report #4, Middle East conflict [https://www.rystadenergy.com/insights/special-report-4-middle-east-conflict-implications] (available to non-clients)  US sanctions on China’s Hengli aim to choke Iran - petroyuan gets a boost [https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/715225?qid=eb8302485ec1ec44246ce474c04be156&oid=doc_715225] (clients only)  Oil Trading Market Update: Demand destruction is here, but not where you may think [https://www.rystadenergy.com/insights/Demand-destruction-is-here-but-not-where-you-may-think] (available to non-clients)  UAE’s OPEC exit can help alleviate pain for Indian refineries [https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/715217?qid=eb8302485ec1ec44246ce474c04be156&oid=doc_715217]  (clients only)  Gulf shut-ins could reduce regional crude output by 70% if US-Iran war drags on [https://www.rystadenergy.com/news/gulf-shut-ins-could-reduce-regional-crude-output-by-70percent-if-us-iran-war-drag] (available to non-clients)  Russian supply hit by drone attacks, but worst-case risks fade for now [https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/715203?qid=eb8302485ec1ec44246ce474c04be156&oid=doc_715203](clients only)    Related Episodes  How the Middle East war is reshaping Asia’s upstream strategy, with Prateek Pandey [https://www.rystadenergy.com/podcasts/how-the-middle-east-war-is-reshaping-asias-upstream-strategy]  The Hormuz crisis and the real cost of a barrel of oil [https://www.rystadenergy.com/podcasts/the-hormuz-crisis-and-the-real-cost-of-a-barrel-of-oil-with-paola-rodriguez-masiu]  What China’s oil stockpiling means for OPEC+, prices and global trade, with Lin Ye [https://www.rystadenergy.com/podcasts/what-chinas-oil-stockpiling-means-for-opec-prices-and-global-trade]    Let’s Talk Energy is a Rystad Energy [http://www.rystadenergy.com/] Production.    Produced by Elliot Busby & Både Og [https://badeog.no/].    Executive producers: Noah Brenner, Elliot Busby, Evodie Fleury-Greaker & Erik Means.    Follow us on:   LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/rystad-energy/]    YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@Rystad.Energy]    Instagram [https://www.instagram.com/rystad_energy/]    X [https://x.com/RystadEnergy]