Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT

The Recession has Begun, and Costco Proves It | Redefining Diversification feat. Paisley Nardini

46 min · 15 de may de 2026
Portada del episodio The Recession has Begun, and Costco Proves It | Redefining Diversification feat. Paisley Nardini

Descripción

In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Paisley Nardini, Managing Director and Head of Multi-Asset Solutions at Simplify Asset Management. Recorded May 12th, 2026 Paisley shares her perspective on why the traditional 60/40 portfolio faces significant challenges in a modern regime defined by sticky inflation and positively correlated stock-bond movements. We dig into why diversification requires more than just two asset classes, the tactical role of "liquid alternatives" like trend following to manage volatility, how hard assets can act as a natural hedge against inflationary pressures, and why Paisley believes "volatility is the price of entry" for long-term investors who want to participate in the market successfully. If you enjoyed this podcast, please give Paisley's a shot! You can catch her and her co-host Josh Flade talking about improving investor resilience at: https://buildingbetterportfolios.my.canva.site/ 📈 Topics Covered • The breakdown of stock-bond diversification in a high-inflation regime • Why the Fed is now "between a rock and a hard place" regarding interest rate policy • Why the "Fed Put" is no longer a reliable safety net for investors • Liquid alternatives and systematic trend following as essential negative correlation hedges • Hard assets (commodities/real assets) as an underrepresented inflation protection • Understanding the "everything else" category: Liquid alts, global macro, and tail-risk strategies • The educational gap in alternative investments for retail and advisor portfolios • Defining the "active" fee budget: Paying for risk management versus paying for traditional stock picking 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

Comentarios

0

Sé la primera persona en comentar

¡Regístrate ahora y únete a la comunidad de Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT!

Prueba gratis

Empieza 7 días de prueba

$99 / mes después de la prueba. · Cancela cuando quieras.

  • Podcasts solo en Podimo
  • 20 horas de audiolibros al mes
  • Podcast gratuitos

Todos los episodios

104 episodios

episode Emotional? Don't trade just yet! | Fight your Fears and Save your Tears with Dr. Dave Bonanno artwork

Emotional? Don't trade just yet! | Fight your Fears and Save your Tears with Dr. Dave Bonanno

In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by psychologist Dr. David Bonanno, author of The Consistently Calm Trader. Recorded 5/26/26.  Dr. Dave shares his clinical expertise to help investors understand the physical and subconscious forces that hijack our decision-making. We dig into why adrenaline is the ultimate enemy of the trader, the involuntary mechanics of the fight, flight, freeze, or fawn response, and why simply "trying harder" or gaining more market knowledge won't fix emotional trading. We also explore the dangers of "global thinking," why cultivating the ability to be sad is a psychological superpower, and how unique techniques leveraging eye movements can help traders reset their nervous systems and get out of their own way. If you enjoyed this interview and want to learn more about the psychology of good trades, check out Dr. Dave's book! https://amzn.to/4u4sBoM.   You can learn more about Dr. Dave's coaching services here https://maxdiscipline.com/ and also check out his YouTube channel https://www.youtube.com/@dr.bonanno. 📈 Topics Covered • Why smart, analytical people consistently make irrational trading decisions under pressure • The physiological impact of adrenaline and how it forces the logical brain offline • Understanding the involuntary fight, flight, freeze, or fawn responses in the financial markets • Why "State Beats Thought" and why traditional journaling isn't always enough to fix subconscious habits • The danger of "global thinking" and tying your personal character or self-worth to individual trades • Embracing imperfection and learning to process sadness rather than anger or revenge trading • Using eye movement techniques (rooted in EMDR) to regulate the nervous system before a session • The crucial difference between emotional reactivity and trusting your market intuition 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

Ayer45 min
episode The Recession has Begun, and Costco Proves It | Redefining Diversification feat. Paisley Nardini artwork

The Recession has Begun, and Costco Proves It | Redefining Diversification feat. Paisley Nardini

In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Paisley Nardini, Managing Director and Head of Multi-Asset Solutions at Simplify Asset Management. Recorded May 12th, 2026 Paisley shares her perspective on why the traditional 60/40 portfolio faces significant challenges in a modern regime defined by sticky inflation and positively correlated stock-bond movements. We dig into why diversification requires more than just two asset classes, the tactical role of "liquid alternatives" like trend following to manage volatility, how hard assets can act as a natural hedge against inflationary pressures, and why Paisley believes "volatility is the price of entry" for long-term investors who want to participate in the market successfully. If you enjoyed this podcast, please give Paisley's a shot! You can catch her and her co-host Josh Flade talking about improving investor resilience at: https://buildingbetterportfolios.my.canva.site/ 📈 Topics Covered • The breakdown of stock-bond diversification in a high-inflation regime • Why the Fed is now "between a rock and a hard place" regarding interest rate policy • Why the "Fed Put" is no longer a reliable safety net for investors • Liquid alternatives and systematic trend following as essential negative correlation hedges • Hard assets (commodities/real assets) as an underrepresented inflation protection • Understanding the "everything else" category: Liquid alts, global macro, and tail-risk strategies • The educational gap in alternative investments for retail and advisor portfolios • Defining the "active" fee budget: Paying for risk management versus paying for traditional stock picking 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

15 de may de 202646 min
episode Would you rather Make Money, or Be Right? | 2026 Market Technicals & Trends with Dean Christians artwork

Would you rather Make Money, or Be Right? | 2026 Market Technicals & Trends with Dean Christians

In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Dean Christians, founder and lead market strategist at Turning Point Market Research. Recorded May 8th, 2026 Dean shares what he’s learned from his early days in the Chicago Board of Trade options pits and how that "kill or be killed" mentality shaped his highly disciplined, evidence-based approach to technical analysis. We dig into how the market is currently climbing a macro "Wall of Worry," why 52-week lows are the single most critical indicator to monitor in a bull market, and how to use trend persistence and relative strength to find market leaders. The conversation also explores why current weak market breadth feels eerily similar to the stealth bull market of the early 1990s, and why investors must constantly ask themselves the ultimate Ned Davis question: "Do you wanna be right, or do you wanna make money?" 📈 Topics Covered • Lessons from the Chicago Board of Trade pits: Why grit and determination often beat an Ivy League education • Climbing the 2026 "Wall of Worry": The impact of elevated oil prices and interest rates on the Consumer Discretionary and Housing sectors • Dean’s technical framework: Blending macro composite models with absolute trend and relative strength • Why "trend persistence" (consecutive closes above the 10-day moving average) is a massive sign of a healthy market • Debunking the "Sell in May" seasonality myth in favor of pure price action and trend analysis • Why current weak market breadth—driven by rolling stealth corrections—mirrors the grinding bull market of the early 1990s • Understanding sentiment: Why high optimism isn't necessarily a top, because "you need bulls to have a bull market" • Why 52-week lows (not 52-week highs) are the ultimate warning sign to monitor for a major market correction • Non-AI market opportunities: Identifying bullish technical rotations in industrial metals (lithium, copper) and agricultural grains 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

15 de may de 202640 min
episode Mr. Waffle House at the Fed | 2026 Market Momentum with Tom Bowley artwork

Mr. Waffle House at the Fed | 2026 Market Momentum with Tom Bowley

In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Tom Bowley, Chief Market Strategist at Earnings Beats. Recorded 4/30/2026. Tom shares his insights from a recent fantasy stock-picking draft and reveals his powerful strategy of marrying relative strength technicals with strict fundamental filters—specifically, only trading companies that beat revenue and earnings expectations. We dig into why risk management is like piloting a plane, the importance of establishing your exit strategy before the trade goes wrong, his shift from a cautious stance to a bullish outlook after the recent V-shaped market bottom, and why the unprecedented dissension at the Fed has earned Jerome Powell the nickname "Mr. Waffle House." 📈 Topics Covered • Using relative strength to identify and stick with market leaders (like Caterpillar and VIAVI) • Filtering technical breakouts by strictly requiring fundamental revenue and earnings beats • Establishing exit strategies (like the 20-day moving average or strict time limits) before entering a trade • The shift in market conditions that forced a rapid pivot from bearish caution to full bullishness • The "new normal" of V-shaped market bottoms and sharp, fast recoveries • Unprecedented FOMC dissension and why Tom compares Fed Chair Jerome Powell to a great coordinator but a bad head coach • Why gold typically struggles to outperform the S&P 500 when the VIX is low and the US Dollar is strong 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

4 de may de 202646 min
episode Reasons are Optional? | Wyckoff Methodology with Bruce Fraser artwork

Reasons are Optional? | Wyckoff Methodology with Bruce Fraser

In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Bruce Fraser, an educator, professor, market veteran of 45 years, and world-renowned expert in the Wyckoff Method. Recorded 04/28/2026 Bruce shares his incredible wisdom to help us view the markets through a "Wyckoffian" lens. We dig into the psychology of the "Composite Operator" (the smart money), the mechanics of accumulation and distribution phases, why stocks must be absorbed into "strong hands" to trend higher, and how to conquer the psychological hurdle of paying up for strength once a breakout occurs. We also reflect on the fractal nature of charts, the current reaccumulation structures in semiconductors, and pay tribute to Bruce's mentor, the legendary technical analyst Hank Pruden. Links we discussed during the episode: 📈 Learn more about Bruce's work at https://www.wyckoffanalytics.com/ and check out Bruce and Roman Bogomazov's Wyckoff course at https://www.wyckoffanalytics.com/demand/basic-charting-course/. 📈 Stan Druckenmiller's interview with Morgan Stanley: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z_pk4eBDaLA 📈 Hank Pruden's fantastic book "The Three Skills of Top Trading" : https://amzn.to/49pehQe 📈 Classic trading book "Reminsicences of a Stock Operator": https://amzn.to/4cLZNMG 📈 Topics Covered • Understanding the core premise of the Wyckoff Method and tracking the "Composite Operator" • The law of supply and demand: why stocks must be absorbed by strong hands to trend higher • Breaking down the specific phases (A through E) of market accumulation and distribution • The psychological difficulty of paying for strength and staying in a trend (featuring a great Stanley Druckenmiller anecdote about Nvidia) • The fractal nature of the Wyckoff Method and applying it across multiple timeframes • Identifying "reaccumulation" structures in current 2026 market leaders, such as semiconductors • Honoring the legacy of technical analysis giant Hank Pruden and the Golden Gate University program 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

1 de may de 202640 min