What I Learned from the SMM Metals Conference

Perspecticast ep.23

Good evening, not too bee to cavalier about it, but $NVDA has opened up a can of worms by being “really overvalued” and then goin on to 10x from there in fairly short order. This sort of things ruins people and their investing approachers. As a certified Vaule Respector, I do feel somewhat like a fish out of water, but investing in AI and anything to do with it demands a growth mindset. So here it goes. I proceed to explain why there’s a chance for these things, despite trading at up to 1800x earnings today go on to 10x in the next few years. Do check out the articles below. They are behind a paywall, so do consider signing up if you are interested. Similarly if you are interested in having a more detailed conversation along the lines of the pod or indeed anything else in China and Asia, do reach out. Join the Founder tier to start, or browse the full advisory menu [https://pandaperspectives.substack.com/p/exciting-news-introducing-panda-perspectives]. Drop us an email [leo@leonidmironov.com] with “Upgrade” in the subject line, and we’ll book your intro call within 24 hours. Nothing in this Substack is Investment Advice. This information is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other advice. Any examples used are for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect actual recommendations. Please consult a licensed financial advisor or conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. The authors, publishers, and affiliates of this content do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of the information and are not responsible for any losses, damages, or actions taken based on this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe [https://pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Perspecticast ep.22

Good Evening, Wanted to address the East vs West and some other narratives that seem obvious but maybe aren’t in the semiconductor space. This discussion builds on the 3 articles published in this review so far: * East vs West, [https://pandaperspectives.substack.com/p/east-meets-west-mapping-the-global] where the key battle lines are drawn * China’s Policy review: [https://pandaperspectives.substack.com/p/the-policy-engine-how-government] what the government is doing to spur domestic semiconductor sector growth. (Free Article) * The Equipment Revolution: [https://pandaperspectives.substack.com/p/the-equipment-revolution-tools-of]the race in all parts of the tool making value chain As with all the other pieces in the series, this is series, it’s paywalled, Do upgrade/join up if you’re interested, we’d love to have you! Turn context into conviction with Panda Perspectives+: You already read the Substack for big-picture clarity. Panda Perspectives+ adds the action layer live, personalised and ready when you are. Advisory toolbox * 1-on-1 strategy sessions Direct time with our senior China-Asia analysts—for CIOs, PMs, analysts or founders who need to stress-test a thesis before capital moves. * Custom deep-dive research From a 40-page teardown of BYD’s SiC supply chain to a same-week model on Shanghai micro-fabs delivered to your brief and timeline. * Live Q&A briefings for teams and ICs Interactive calls (slides + recording included) that arm the entire desk with up-to-the-minute intelligence. * Panda Hand-Hold concierge A dedicated analyst on speed-dial for emerging and private investors, quarterly portfolio health checks to iron out A-share quirks and FX traps, plus 30-minute mini-masterclasses that decode SAFE rules, cross-border custody and dual-currency settles. Active mandates on our desk * China’s evolving consumer-spend mix * 3Q25 macro trajectory & policy inflection points * Factory automation and the robotics super-cycle * Breakthroughs in Chinese healthcare * Latest EV-market shake-ups and winners Ready to sharpen your edge? Join in to the Founder tier for the intro service or browse the full advisory menu [https://pandaperspectives.substack.com/p/exciting-news-introducing-panda-perspectives], or email [leo@leonidmironov.com]us [leo@leonidmironov.com] with “Upgrade”in the subject line and we’ll book your intro call within 24 hours. Nothing in this Substack is Investment Advice. This information is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other advice. Any examples used are for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect actual recommendations. Please consult a licensed financial advisor or conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. The authors, publishers, and affiliates of this content do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of the information and are not responsible for any losses, damages, or actions taken based on this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe [https://pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Perspecticast ep.21

Good evening, here’s the rough breakdown of whats to come: Total Companies in Coverage: 90 Pure Semiconductor Companies: 68 (75.5%) Coverage by Article: Article 1 & 2: Macro overview of the space and policy Article 3 (Equipment): 6 companies in focus Article 4 (Foundries): 6 companies Article 5 (Memory): 8 companies Article 6 (AI): 4 companies Article 7 (Power/Auto): 7 companies Article 8 (Mobile): 9 companies Article 9 (Analog): 4 companies Article 10 (Connectivity): 6 companies Article 11 (Assembly): 4 companies Article 12 (Design/IP): 8 companies Article 13 (Future Tech): 4 companies Article 14 (Ranking): all 90 companies Join up if you want to join us on this journey. Have a great day, Leonid Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe [https://pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Perspecticast ep.20: EVs and more

Good Morning, Please do check out our note on EVs available here: I make reference to this data on the costs of EVs vs ICE (imperfect, but it gives a ballpark). New Li i8: have a good one, Leonid Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe [https://pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

What I Learned from the SMM Metals Conference

Good Evening, I was on the ground at the SMM Asia Metals Seminar in Hong Kong today. Excellent content: deep dives, hard data, and no tourist-level macro. In this short episode, I run through key takeaways from the industrial and new energy metals sessions metal by metal, but first, do consider subscribing to the substack for much more of this. Copper * Global supply growth is flat: top producers (BHP, Codelco, Freeport) have shown zero structural output growth since 2020 * Models show upside to >$10,000/ton with base case at ~$9,800 * Inventories in China and Europe at multi-year lows, <2 weeks of demand cover * Long-term capex shortfall of US$150 billion to meet 2035 demand 📈 Verdict: Strong long. Best setup in the market. Zinc * Refined market tight through 2025, but surplus expected by 2026 * TCs rising; mine supply returning * Chinese refined output up +5.2% YoY, demand growth slowing 🧭 Verdict: Tactical only. Fade the strength post-2025. Tin * Global supply thin, highly concentrated (Indonesia, Myanmar) * Inventories low: <30 days global coverage * Demand anchored in semiconductors, solar, and industrial electronics 💡 Verdict: Optionality. Small market, big moves. Nickel * Indonesia to produce >50% of global supply by 2026 * LME + SHFE inventory rising; matte and sulphate margins deeply negative * NPI-to-refined conversion loss: ~$900–1,000/t at current tolling fees 📉 Verdict: Structurally bearish. Narrative still lags reality. Cobalt * DRC still supplies 98–99% of China’s cobalt imports * ARECOMS export ban triggered +89% spike in Co₃O₄ over 40 days * But global supply rising: expected to grow from 309 kt (2024) to 390 kt (2030E) ⚠️ Verdict: Geopolitical squeeze short-term; surplus long-term. Lithium * China carbonate surplus: 5–9 kt/month expected through H1 2026 * Inventories elevated: 130,000+ tons in storage across chain * LFP chemistry dominates; NCM market share declining steadily * Cost curve: only Australian spodumene and Chilean brine consistently profitable 🪫 Verdict: Still oversupplied. Interesting only at the cost curve bottom. Have a good day, Leonid Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe [https://pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]