John Phillips on PredictIt’s Future, Political Trading & Forecasting | Prediction Market Movers

Avi Arora on Oddpool, Institutional Traders & Prediction Market Data | Prediction Market Movers

On this edition of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with Avi Arora, co-founder of Oddpool, to discuss how institutional traders are approaching prediction markets and what infrastructure is still missing for large-scale adoption. The conversation covers Kalshi, Polymarket, historical tick-level data, market-making, liquidity, institutional flow, prediction market analytics, and how Oddpool is building data tools for traders and hedge funds. Avi explains how he became interested in prediction markets through mention markets, statistical trading strategies, low-latency broadcast signals, and speech-to-text analysis. The episode also dives into how prediction market data can be used for backtesting, quantitative trading, AI forecasting models, and market pricing across platforms. The discussion also explores Y Combinator, startup founder dynamics, fundraising, prediction market regulation, and how companies like Kalshi helped push the industry forward. Avi shares insights into building Oddpool, collecting normalized market data across venues, and why the prediction market data layer could become one of the most valuable segments of the industry over the next several years. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com 00:00 - Intro 1:30 - His start in Prediction Markets 5:15 - Starting Oddpool 6:15 - What is missing in prediction markets? 9:15 - Which contracts should be targeted? 11:20 - Getting into Y Combinator and founder dynamics 14:20 - The benefit of Y Combinator 16:30 - On industry interruptions 20:30 - What does a mature industry look like? 22:30 - Hedging on political events 24:00 - Under appreciated data in prediction markets 27:20 - Next steps for Oddpool #PredictionMarkets #Kalshi #Polymarket #Oddpool #PredictionMarketMovers #QuantTrading #AI #Forecasting #ElectionMarkets #Trading #YCombinator #Finance #InstitutionalTrading #MacroTrading #PredictionNews

John Phillips on PredictIt’s Future, Political Trading & Forecasting | Prediction Market Movers

Prediction Market Movers welcomes John Phillips, co-founder and CEO of PredictIt, for a deep discussion on the evolution of prediction markets, CFTC regulation, and the future of the industry. Chris Gerlacher and John Phillips break down PredictIt’s legal battles with the CFTC, the DCM/DCO licensing process, and how political forecasting markets differ from traditional polling and sports betting platforms. The episode also highlights why politics has become one of the strongest use cases for prediction markets and why prediction market odds may provide valuable forecasting insights beyond polling data. Phillips also discusses PredictIt’s history operating under a no-action letter, the company’s courtroom victory against the CFTC, the risks of overregulation, and why he believes prediction markets will continue expanding across politics, economics, weather, entertainment, and news media. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.predictionnews.com [http://www.predictionnews.com] 00:00 - Intro 3:00 - Utilizing Prediction Markets 4:30 - PredicitIt getting involved in sports 6:30 - “There will be a thousand prediction markets.” 9:15 - Is there a Prediction Market bubble? 11:00 - CFTC value 14:00 - How PMs handle emotionally charged events 17:00 - PredictIt during the pandemic 19:00 - DCM application and path 22:30 - CFTC post-Trump administration 24:40 - “Some regulation is valuable” 26:00 - What needs to adjusted on the industry side 29:30 - Using PM data in the future   #PredictionMarkets #PredictIt #CFTC #Kalshi #Polymarket #ElectionForecasting #PredictionMarketMovers #Politics #Forecasting #ElectionOdds #Trading #Crypto #SportsBetting #PredictionNews #PoliticalForecasting

Flip Pidot on Political Markets, Bias & Smart Money | Prediction Market Movers

Prediction Market Movers welcomes the Co-founder and CEO of American Civics Exchange Flip Pidot for a deep dive into prediction market efficiency, emotional trading, political forecasting, and the future of derivatives built on top of prediction markets. Chris Gerlacher and Flip discuss how markets process information, why emotional bias creates persistent mispricing, and what separates accurate forecasting from simple market calibration. Chris and Flip break down insider trading concerns in prediction markets, institutional adoption, settlement controversies, and how regulators may approach the rapidly growing prediction market industry over the next several years. The conversation also covers how smart traders identify irrational pricing in highly emotional political markets. The interview finishes with Flip discussing American Civics Exchange, the first US-based commercial market for political futures.   👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com 00:00 - Intro 1:30 - What makes a market efficient 4:30 - Eliminating friction in the market 7:30 - Emotional bias in the market 12:50 - PredictIt in 2025 17:25 - Duplicate markets and trader limits 20:50 - No action relief/insider trading 34:00 - timeline of investigating insider trading 42:55 - Derivatives layers on prediction markets 53:00 - Market resolution process 59:00 What is American Civics Exchange?

FutureSearch CEO Dan Schwarz on AI Forecasting & Prediction Markets | Prediction Market Movers

Prediction Market Movers is back with Dan Schwarz, CEO and co-founder of FutureSearch, to break down the future of AI forecasting, prediction markets, and the science behind writing high-quality prediction market questions. Chris Gerlacher and Dan Schwarz discuss how platforms like PolyMarket and Kalshi handle market resolution, why poorly written prediction market questions create controversy, and how traders, policymakers, and institutions all use prediction markets differently. They also explore geopolitical forecasting, AI prediction systems, market liquidity, forecasting probabilities, and the role of prediction markets in understanding events like Iran, Venezuela, Taiwan, pandemics, and AI development. Dan explains how FutureSearch uses AI agents to research forecasting questions, compare probabilities against prediction market odds, and identify potential pricing inefficiencies across markets. The conversation also covers AGI forecasting, forecasting accuracy, and how AI forecasting tools could rival human prediction markets. 00:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYEv5pBE40U] - Intro 1:30 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYEv5pBE40U&t=90s] - Curating Prediction Market questions 5:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYEv5pBE40U&t=300s] - Who to trust with the questions 6:15 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYEv5pBE40U&t=375s] - Making a market 8:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYEv5pBE40U&t=480s] - Specificity of prediction markets and AI 9:30 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYEv5pBE40U&t=570s] - What makes an interesting question? 11:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYEv5pBE40U&t=660s] - Prediction Markets falling short 12:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYEv5pBE40U&t=720s] - Circulating new questions 14:15 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYEv5pBE40U&t=855s] - The importance of market resolving 19:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYEv5pBE40U&t=1140s] - Percentages in markets are dependent on the audience 21:20 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYEv5pBE40U&t=1280s] - What is Future Search? 23:50 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYEv5pBE40U&t=1430s] - Future Search features 26:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYEv5pBE40U&t=1560s] - How would a sports bettor look at Future Search? 28:15 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYEv5pBE40U&t=1695s] - What does a mature PM industry look like in the future? 34:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYEv5pBE40U&t=2040s] - Goodbye #PredictionMarkets [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/predictionmarkets] #PolyMarket [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/polymarket] #Kalshi [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/kalshi] #AI [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/ai] #Forecasting [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/forecasting] #FutureSearch [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/futuresearch] #ArtificialIntelligence [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/artificialintelligence] #Crypto [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/crypto] #PredictionNews [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/predictionnews] #AGI [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/agi] #Metaculous [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/metaculous] #ElectionForecasting [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/electionforecasting] #Geopolitics [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/geopolitics] #MachineLearning [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/machinelearning] #Trading [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/trading] 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com

Inside Crypto Prediction Markets with Henry Lau | Prediction Market Movers

Welcome back to Prediction Market Movers. Chris Gerlacher sits down with Skywalk Founder Henry Lau to break down the current state of crypto prediction markets, including what’s changed over the past six months, what’s working, and what hasn’t materialized. This episode dives into the rapid growth and saturation of the prediction market space, where over 150 platforms exist but only a fraction generate meaningful volume. Henry explains why distribution, liquidity, and go-to-market strategy are critical for survival in an increasingly competitive landscape. They also explore the role of KYC requirements in crypto, how friction impacts user onboarding, and the divide between institutional adoption and crypto-native users. The conversation covers how prediction markets are evolving beyond their original vision, including the shift toward sports trading and emerging use cases like MetaDAO and futarchy-driven decision-making. #PredictionMarkets #Crypto #Web3 #PolyMarket #Calshi #Blockchain #DeFi #CryptoTrading #Finance #MarketAnalysis #Investing #Trading #Web3News #CryptoNews #PredictionMarketMovers 00:00 - Intro 1:00 - Saturation in prediction markets? 3:00 - KYC requirements 8:30 - Polymarket token launch 11:15 - On chain liquidity 15:00 - User generated markets 19:45 - Newcomers in the crypto sectors 27:50 - Building avoiding traps 31:45 - Skywalk update 35:45 - Final thoughts   👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com