Using Wind Profiles to Predict Supercells

Why Observed Data Is KING on Chase Day

Get the Cheat Sheet: https://stormchasercoaching.com/storm-chasing-podcast-notes [https://stormchasercoaching.com/storm-chasing-podcast-notes] Join the Chaser Academy: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCCP12NYSDa9KL26PW1zokcA/join [https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCCP12NYSDa9KL26PW1zokcA/join] Join the Discord community: https://discord.gg/stormchasercoaching [https://discord.gg/stormchasercoaching] Get FREE Chaser Safety Ebook: https://stormchasercoaching.com/eight-rules/ [https://stormchasercoaching.com/eight-rules/] Get FREE Dixie Alley Ebook: https://stormchasercoaching.com/dixie-alley/ [https://stormchasercoaching.com/dixie-alley/] Buy SCC Merch: https://storm-chaser-coaching.myspreadshop.com/ [https://storm-chaser-coaching.myspreadshop.com/] Follow SCC on Twitter: https://x.com/TornadoCoaching [https://x.com/TornadoCoaching] Follow Trey on Twitter: https://x.com/ConvChronicles [https://x.com/ConvChronicles] Follow Gabe on Twitter: https://x.com/CrazyGabey [https://x.com/CrazyGabey] Most chasers waste precious time on chase day glued to model runs — but that's the mistake that costs them the storm. Listen to this episode and learn why observed data like soundings, surface obs, and upper air maps become your most powerful forecasting tools when it matters most, and how to use them to make confident, real-time decisions in the field. 00:00 Why Observed Data Is King on Chase Day 00:55 Best Observed Data Sets for Storm Chasers 02:09 What Is the SPC Mesoanalysis? 05:38 The Cheat Code: Vorticity & 3CAPE Overlap 08:23 How to Use Convection Allowing Models 10:18 Why You Can't Rely on a Single CAM 11:27 Why the 3km NAM Is Worthless On chase day, the models have done their job — now it's time to put them aside. In this episode of the Storm Chaser Coaching podcast, host Gabriel Harber sits down with Coach Trey Greenwood to break down why observed data is the single most important forecasting tool on the day of a storm chase, and how to use it to make confident, real-time decisions in the field. Trey explains that while forecast models like the NAM, GFS, and European Model are essential in the days leading up to an event, they're simply an estimate of what the atmosphere might do. On chase day, observed data — including upper air maps, surface observations, and morning soundings — tells you exactly what the atmosphere is actually doing. Soundings reveal the instability profile, capping inversions, and wind shear in the vertical. Surface obs help you pinpoint moisture boundaries, surface low positions, and dew point trends in real time. The episode also dives deep into the SPC Mesoanalysis page, one of the most valuable tools in a storm chaser's arsenal. Trey walks through the "cheat code" — the surface vorticity and zero-to-three kilometer ML CAPE overlap product — and explains why strong low-level instability co-located with surface spin is a powerful signal for tornado potential, especially in landspout and cold core setups. When it comes to Convection Allowing Models like the HRRR, FV3, and NAM-3km, Trey urges chasers to use them only as a "check your work" tool rather than a primary forecast driver. Every CAM carries its own biases — the HRRR notoriously overmixes and cratering dew points — so model agreement across multiple CAMs is key before placing confidence in any single solution. And the Three Kilometer NAM? Trey's verdict: ignore it entirely.

How Moisture Fuels Tornadoes

Get the Cheat Sheet: https://stormchasercoaching.com/storm-chasing-podcast-notes [https://stormchasercoaching.com/storm-chasing-podcast-notes] Join the Chaser Academy: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCCP12NYSDa9KL26PW1zokcA/join [https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCCP12NYSDa9KL26PW1zokcA/join] Join the Discord community: https://discord.gg/stormchasercoaching [https://discord.gg/stormchasercoaching] Get FREE Chaser Safety Ebook: https://stormchasercoaching.com/eight-rules/ [https://stormchasercoaching.com/eight-rules/] Get FREE Dixie Alley Ebook: https://stormchasercoaching.com/dixie-alley/ [https://stormchasercoaching.com/dixie-alley/] Buy SCC Merch: https://storm-chaser-coaching.myspreadshop.com/ [https://storm-chaser-coaching.myspreadshop.com/] Follow SCC on Twitter: https://x.com/TornadoCoaching [https://x.com/TornadoCoaching] Follow Trey on Twitter: https://x.com/ConvChronicles [https://x.com/ConvChronicles] Follow Gabriel on Twitter: https://x.com/CrazyGabey [https://x.com/CrazyGabey] Most people think tornadoes are all about wind — but the real secret ingredient is hiding in plain sight. Watch to discover how a single number, the dew point, determines whether the atmosphere will erupt into violent storms or stay completely quiet, and how understanding moisture can transform the way you read any severe weather setup. 00:00 Intro: Moisture as a Storm Ingredient 01:04 Why Moisture Is Critical for Severe Storms 01:46 What Is Dew Point & Why Not Humidity? 06:11 Dew Point Ranges for Tornado Outbreaks 07:47 Temp-Dew Point Spread & Storm Outflow 09:30 Upslope Regimes & High-Elevation Storms In this episode of the Storm Chaser Coaching Podcast, host Gabriel Harber and Lead Coach Trey Greenwood break down one of the most fundamental — yet misunderstood — ingredients in severe weather forecasting: atmospheric moisture. Whether you're a beginner storm chaser or a seasoned weather enthusiast, understanding dew point is essential for evaluating any severe weather setup. Trey explains why moisture acts as storm fuel, and why storms in low-moisture environments rarely produce the kind of robust, chase-worthy activity forecasters look for. The episode then dives deep into dew point — what it actually measures, why it's a more reliable indicator than relative humidity, and how it directly relates to cloud formation and convective potential. Unlike relative humidity, which fluctuates with temperature, dew point is an absolute measure of moisture in the atmosphere, making it the gold standard for severe weather analysis. The conversation also covers the dew point thresholds that signal a favorable severe weather setup — generally 60°F and above for springtime events in the lower elevations of the Plains — and how those benchmarks shift depending on the time of year and local terrain. Trey and Gabe walk through why a tight temperature-dew point spread at the surface is critical for reducing outflow-dominant storms and maximizing tornado potential. Finally, the episode tackles upslope regimes in high-terrain regions like Colorado, Wyoming, and the Texas Cap Rock, where dew points in the upper 30s to mid-50s can be just as potent as 65°F readings in Oklahoma City or Wichita.

Hidden Tornadoes: The Danger of HP Supercells

Get the Cheat Sheet: https://stormchasercoaching.com/storm-chasing-podcast-notes [https://stormchasercoaching.com/storm-chasing-podcast-notes] Join the Discord community: https://discord.gg/stormchasercoaching [https://discord.gg/stormchasercoaching] Subscribe to Chaser Academy: https://mee6.xyz/en/m/1413711578800459778?subscribe=1454274253170946048&bundle=1 [https://mee6.xyz/en/m/1413711578800459778?subscribe=1454274253170946048&bundle=1] Get FREE Chaser Safety Ebook: https://stormchasercoaching.com/eight-rules/ [https://stormchasercoaching.com/eight-rules/] Get FREE Dixie Alley Ebook: https://stormchasercoaching.com/dixie-alley/ [https://stormchasercoaching.com/dixie-alley/] Buy SCC Merch: https://storm-chaser-coaching.myspreadshop.com/ [https://storm-chaser-coaching.myspreadshop.com/] Follow SCC on Twitter: https://x.com/TornadoCoaching [https://x.com/TornadoCoaching] Follow Trey on Twitter: https://x.com/ConvChronicles [https://x.com/ConvChronicles] Follow Gabriel on Twitter: https://x.com/CrazyGabey [https://x.com/CrazyGabey] Most chasers think they can see a tornado coming — but HP supercells hide their deadliest secrets behind walls of rain. Watch this episode to learn how to identify high precipitation supercells on radar, recognize their unique hazards, and make smarter decisions that could save your life in the field. 00:00 Introduction: Hidden Tornado Danger 0:48 What Defines an HP Supercell? 1:29 Why HP Supercells Are Deadly 2:28 El Reno & Real-World HP Encounters 5:13 HP Supercell Radar Signatures 6:19 Hazards: Hail, Floods & Tornadoes High precipitation supercells are among the most dangerous and misunderstood storm types a chaser can encounter. Unlike classic supercells with their clean, rain-free bases and well-defined wall clouds, HP supercells bury their most deadly features — including tornadoes — behind dense curtains of rain and hail. In this episode of the Storm Chaser Coaching Podcast, host Gabriel Harber and Lead Coach Trey Greenwood break down everything you need to know about chasing HP supercells safely. Trey explains that the defining characteristic of a high precipitation supercell is the co-location of heavy precipitation with the updraft base, masking critical storm features that chasers rely on for situational awareness. This forces chasers to depend almost entirely on radar interpretation rather than visual cues — a significant and potentially fatal challenge. On radar, HP supercells often appear as a thick, kidney bean-shaped reflectivity signature rather than the classic well-defined hook echo. The inflow notch, normally clean on a classic supercell, is flooded with precipitation, making it extremely difficult to identify the mesocyclone. Velocity couplets remain readable, but getting close enough to use them puts chasers dangerously inside the Bear's Cage. The conversation highlights the 2013 El Reno tornado — the widest tornado ever recorded — as the most notorious example of an HP supercell claiming lives, including veteran researcher Tim Samaras. Beyond tornadoes, HP supercells bring additional hazards: giant hail embedded in the precipitation core, flash flooding on rural back roads, and powerful cold-air outflow winds. Whether you're a beginner or experienced chaser, understanding HP supercell structure, radar signatures, and escape routes is essential knowledge for surviving the field.

Using Wind Profiles to Predict Supercells

Get the Cheat Sheet: https://stormchasercoaching.com/storm-chasing-podcast-notes [https://stormchasercoaching.com/storm-chasing-podcast-notes] Join the Discord community: https://discord.gg/stormchasercoaching [https://discord.gg/stormchasercoaching] Subscribe to Chaser Academy: https://mee6.xyz/en/m/1413711578800459778?subscribe=1454274253170946048&bundle=1 [https://mee6.xyz/en/m/1413711578800459778?subscribe=1454274253170946048&bundle=1] Get FREE Chaser Safety Ebook: https://stormchasercoaching.com/eight-rules/ [https://stormchasercoaching.com/eight-rules/] Get FREE Dixie Alley Ebook: https://stormchasercoaching.com/dixie-alley/ [https://stormchasercoaching.com/dixie-alley/] Buy SCC Merch: https://storm-chaser-coaching.myspreadshop.com/ [https://storm-chaser-coaching.myspreadshop.com/] Follow SCC on Twitter: https://x.com/TornadoCoaching [https://x.com/TornadoCoaching] Follow Trey on Twitter: https://x.com/ConvChronicles [https://x.com/ConvChronicles] Follow Trey on Twitter: https://x.com/CrazyGabey [https://x.com/CrazyGabey] Did you know the shape of a wind profile can reveal what a storm will look like on radar — hours before it even forms? In this episode, you'll learn how veering and backing wind profiles influence supercell structure, tornado potential, and storm visibility so you can make smarter, safer decisions on your next chase. 00:00 Intro: Wind Profiles & Supercell Structure 01:02 What Is Veering Wind with Height? 01:32 What Are Backing Winds? 01:54 Wind Profiles & Storm Radar Presentation 04:18 The Meat Hook / Sickle Hodograph Shape 04:47 Precipitation Wrapping & HP Supercells 06:12 Chasing Safety by Hodograph Shape In this episode of the Storm Chaser Coaching podcast, host Gabriel Harber and Lead Coach Trey Greenwood break down one of the most critical — and often misunderstood — concepts in storm chasing: how wind profiles shape supercell structure, tornado potential, and storm visibility. The conversation begins with a foundational question: what is a veering wind profile? Trey explains that veering winds turn clockwise with height — for example, shifting from southeasterly at the surface to southwesterly just above. This clockwise rotation in the low levels is a key ingredient for supercell development. The more pronounced the veering, combined with wind strengthening with height, the more curved the hodograph becomes — and a strongly curved low-level hodograph is widely associated with increased tornado potential in right-moving supercells. Backing winds, by contrast, turn counterclockwise with height and are generally less favorable for classic supercell tornado environments, though wind profiles are rarely black and white. The discussion then turns to how hodograph shape directly influences a storm's radar presentation. The "meat hook" or sickle-shaped hodograph — featuring a tightly curved low-level portion with a long, extended mid and upper-level segment — is the textbook signature for well-organized, visually spectacular supercells. This shape promotes efficient precipitation venting away from the mesocyclone, leading to visible storm structure and tornadoes that are easier and safer to chase. When the hodograph folds back on itself into a semicircle, however, precipitation gets thrown out in front of the storm rather than vented away. This produces high-precipitation supercells with wrapped, rain-obscured tornadoes — a scenario common in the Southeast and one of the most dangerous situations a storm chaser can face. Trey closes with critical safety advice: semicircle hodographs demand more space and respect. These storms hide their most dangerous features, making positioning extremely difficult and dramatically raising the risk for chasers.

Radar Basics for Storm Chasers

Join the 2027 Storm Chasing Tour: https://stormchasercoaching.com/2027-tour [https://stormchasercoaching.com/2027-tour] Get the Cheat Sheet: https://stormchasercoaching.com/storm-chasing-podcast-notes [https://stormchasercoaching.com/storm-chasing-podcast-notes] Join the Discord community: https://discord.gg/stormchasercoaching [https://discord.gg/stormchasercoaching] Subscribe to Chaser Academy: https://mee6.xyz/en/m/1413711578800459778?subscribe=1454274253170946048&bundle=1 [https://mee6.xyz/en/m/1413711578800459778?subscribe=1454274253170946048&bundle=1] Get FREE Chaser Safety Ebook: https://stormchasercoaching.com/eight-rules/ [https://stormchasercoaching.com/eight-rules/] Get FREE Dixie Alley Ebook: https://stormchasercoaching.com/dixie-alley/ [https://stormchasercoaching.com/dixie-alley/] Buy SCC Merch: https://storm-chaser-coaching.myspreadshop.com/ [https://storm-chaser-coaching.myspreadshop.com/] Follow SCC on Twitter: https://x.com/TornadoCoaching [https://x.com/TornadoCoaching] Follow Trey on Twitter: https://x.com/ConvChronicles [https://x.com/ConvChronicles] Follow Gabriel on Twitter: https://x.com/CrazyGabey [https://x.com/CrazyGabey] Most storm chasers know how to pull up radar — but do you actually know what you're looking at? In this episode, you'll learn the key radar signatures every chaser must recognize, from reflectivity and velocity basics to supercell structure and tornado vortex signatures, so you can make smarter, safer decisions in the field. 00:00 Intro: Radar Basics for Storm Chasers 01:02 Reflectivity vs. Velocity Explained 01:38 What Reflectivity Tells You 02:13 Best Reflectivity Product to Use 03:00 What Velocity Data Reveals 03:40 Base vs. Storm Relative Velocity 06:17 Supercell Radar Signatures 08:10 Identifying Tornadoes on Radar In this episode of the Storm Chaser Coaching podcast, host Gabriel Harber sits down with Lead Coach Trey Greenwood to break down the essential radar skills every storm chaser needs to stay safe and make smart decisions in the field. The conversation starts with the two foundational radar products every chaser should master: reflectivity and velocity. Reflectivity — often called the "how hard it's raining" mode — reveals precipitation intensity, hail location, and storm structure. For the best results, Trey recommends using Super-Res Reflectivity, the high-resolution product available in apps like RadarScope, over products like Composite Reflectivity that tend to overestimate values. Velocity data, the "how fast is the wind blowing" mode, shows wind speed and direction, making it critical for identifying rotation, microbursts, and straight-line wind signatures. Trey explains when to use each velocity product: storm relative velocity is ideal for spotting rotational signatures and tornado vortex signatures, while base velocity is best for identifying microburst and MCS straight-line wind events. The episode then dives into supercell identification on radar — from spotting the kidney-bean updraft shape at storm initiation, to reading tight reflectivity gradients, hook echoes, and strengthening low-level mesocyclones as storms mature. Finally, Trey walks through how to identify a developing tornado on radar: look for a strong velocity couplet — tight reds and greens side by side — and watch for a drop in correlation coefficient as a sign that debris is being lofted. Throughout, both coaches emphasize that radar must always be paired with visual storm observation, since radar scan intervals of four to five minutes can mask rapid, dangerous changes in storm behavior.