Role, Reliance, and War on the Rocks

Part 2: Discussing a recent WOTR article, "Restrain and Hedge: A New U.S. Nuclear Strategy for a Two-Peer World."

We take our conversation about ‘role’ and ‘reliance’ into a second podcast, where we share our opinions of Tyler Bowen’s May 15, 2026 article in War on the Rocks: “Restrain and Hedge: A New U.S. Nuclear Strategy for a Two-Peer World [https://warontherocks.com/restrain-and-hedge-a-new-u-s-nuclear-strategy-for-a-two-peer-world/].” In his article, Tyler Argues for a U.S. strategy that deemphasizes damage limitation as an embrace of “nuclear restraint.” Instead, he proposes that the United States pursues an arms control framework with both Russia and China while improving the U.S. nuclear enterprise and defense industrial base to prepare the United States for an environment where arms control endeavors fail a trilateral arms race is unavoidable. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit strategicsimplicity.substack.com [https://strategicsimplicity.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

Role, Reliance, and War on the Rocks

We rarely take liberties as co-hosts to talk about arcane and didactic international security subject matter. Or perhaps we do that every episode. At least we usually don’t spend a lot of time engaging in definitional combat. Austin, Matthew, Vipin, and I tried to do a little bit of that in Part I of this episode where we discussed the role of nuclear weapons vs. reliance on (or, because of Vipin, “salience of”) nuclear weapons. We asked ourselves whether these terms matter anymore, and if their relevance is fading, what does that say about the state of nuclear policy debates in DC and worldwide, the expert community’s interest in how nuclear weapons fit in national security strategy, and the level of understanding among international counterparts debating nuclear policy at fora such as the NPT Review Conference? Some authors who’ve touched on the subject in recent years - largely in advance of nuclear posture reviews or policy processes - and i’m sure there are many more, but not many recently: Brad Roberts: “On Adapting Nuclear Deterrence to Reduce Nuclear Risk [https://cgsr.llnl.gov/sites/cgsr/files/2024-08/Daedalus_Sp20_5_Roberts.pdf].” 2020. Sophia Becker and Elisabeth Suh: “How Biden’s Plan to Limit the Role of Nuclear Weapons Challenges NATO [https://dgap.org/en/research/publications/how-bidens-plan-limit-role-nuclear-weapons-challenges-nato].” 2021 Matt Costlow: “A Net Assessment of ‘No First Use’ and ‘Sole Purpose’ Nuclear Policies. [https://nipp.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/OP-7-for-web-final.pdf]” 2021. Adam Mount: “ The Biden Nuclear Posture Review: Obstacles to Reducing Reliance on Nuclear Weapons. [https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2022-01/features/biden-nuclear-posture-review-obstacles-reducing-reliance-nuclear-weapons]“ 2022. Amy Woolf (formerly of CRS): “U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy: Considering “No First Use [https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IN/PDF/IN10553/IN10553.11.pdf].” Updated 2022. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit strategicsimplicity.substack.com [https://strategicsimplicity.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

Analyzing a new Stimson report, "Why Strategic Superiority (Still) Doesn’t Matter"

The gang got together this weekend to talk about a new Stimson Center report, “Why Strategic Superiority (Still) Doesn’t Matter: Nuclear Crises and the Failure of Theory.“ The new report by Chris Preble, Senior Fellow and Director of the Reimagining US Grand Strategy program at the Stimson Center, and Lucas Ruiz, a recent Herbert Scoville Jr. Peace Fellow in the same program, analyzes the role nuclear weapons played in four crises: the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Sino-Soviet Border Conflict of 1969, the 1973 Arab-Israeli (Yom Kippur) War, and the Kargil Crisis. Based on our read, the report functions as a rebuttal to a 2018 book by Georgetown professor Matthew Kroenig, titled "The Logic of American Nuclear Strategy: Why Strategic Superiority Matters." The report advocates for “sufficiency” as a north star for U.S. nuclear force planning - a secure second strike capability - rather than “superiority” is suggests has dominated U.S. nuclear thinking to date. The authors note that superiority “does not enhance security; it signals offensive intent, invites countermeasures, and erodes the stability that deterrence is supposed to protect.” We talk about the report's analysis of a few of these crises, the consequences of a "sufficiency" approach, especially for extended deterrence and nonproliferation, how non-nuclear weapons states may react to these obscure nuclear strategy debates in Washington, and discuss the connection between nuclear posture and arms control. Take a listen, and read the report below: https://www.stimson.org/2026/why-strategic-superiority-still-doesnt-matter/#elementor-toc__heading-anchor-0 [https://www.stimson.org/2026/why-strategic-superiority-still-doesnt-matter/#elementor-toc__heading-anchor-0] and here's a link to Kroenig's book too: https://academic.oup.com/book/5898 [https://academic.oup.com/book/5898] This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit strategicsimplicity.substack.com [https://strategicsimplicity.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

Thinking about a future Iran Nuclear Deal

NTI’s Eric Brewer joins us to unpack how Iran’s nuclear program has transformed since the JCPOA era — and what that means for any future nuclear agreement, which we acknowledge may be quite far off. We talk about Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium, the lack of IAEA access, new underground facilities, and years of experience with advanced centrifuges, and how these changes create a fundamentally different technical baseline than negotiators faced a decade ago. The three of us also talk about Iran’s intentions moving forward, summarizing recent public reporting and the disappearance of the IC’s long‑standing assessment that Iran was not pursuing key weaponization activities. We also discuss the ongoing conflict, starting with Operation Midnight Hammer, and how these events may have shifted Tehran’s strategic calculus with the old deterrence architecture weakened—its proxy network and missile forces have been degraded—whether Iran’s leadership might now view a nuclear weapon as the only reliable insurance policy. Finally, we talk about what a future deal (and additional policy measures) would actually entail. We cover building blocks on the topics of weaponization bottlenecks, regional missile transfers, and a more muscular counterproliferation posture, as well as what may be an exponentially more difficult verification mission, with new mechanisms for access, dispute resolution, and monitoring of military‑linked sites. Show notes and a few publicly available resources we referenced: We started out hoping to go into slightly more technical detail on JCPOA and future JCPOA provisions, but kept the conversation at a higher level for the sake of greater appeal to a wider array of listeners. However, if you would like to see more text… * JCPOA Full Text [https://2009-2017.state.gov/e/eb/tfs/spi/iran/jcpoa/index.htm] (U.S. State Department archive) * IAEA Additional Protocol [https://www.iaea.org/topics/safeguards-legal-framework/additional-protocol] (verification baseline): Reporting on Iran’s Program (2024–2025) * Wall Street Journal reporting on Iran “closing knowledge gaps” in weaponization * ODNI “Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Capability and Terrorism Monitoring Act,” assessment regarding Iran’s nuclear activities report [https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ODNI-Unclassified-Irans-Nuclear-Weapons-Capability-and-Terrorism-Monitoring-Act-of-2022-202411.pdf](Nov 2024) Press on negotiations: * NYT, “United States Said to Have Sent Iran a Plan to End the Middle East War [https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/24/world/middleeast/us-iran-peace-plan.html]” * The Guardian, “UK security adviser ‘attended’ US-Iran talks and judged deal was within reach [https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/17/uk-security-adviser-attended-us-iran-talks-and-judged-deal-was-within-reach]“ Foreign Affairs articles * Vaddi & Narang, “The North Korean Way of Proliferation [https://www.foreignaffairs.com/north-korea/north-korean-way-proliferation]” * Nicole Grajewski and Ankit Panda “The Stunning Failure of Iranian Deterrence [https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/stunning-failure-iranian-deterrence]“ Intro/outro music licensed by Soundstripe: “The Iron Curtain” by Wicked Cinema. Recording and edits through Riverside.fm. Strategic Simplicity is a collection of content provided for free by experts, many of whom worked with one another in a variety of USG jobs. The written or podcast content is solely for educational purposes, and reflects the personal views of contributors. Nothing on this Substack reflects the views of the U.S. government, MIT, or other entities. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit strategicsimplicity.substack.com [https://strategicsimplicity.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

Macron's Nuke Speech with Astrid Chevreuil

The Strategic Simplicity crew was at full strength for the first time in a month, and joined by Astrid Chevreuil [https://www.csis.org/people/astrid-chevreuil] to discuss French President Emmanuel Macron’s highly anticipated speech on nuclear doctrine on March 2nd. Astrid is a Visiting Fellow with the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, DC. She is a career diplomat with the French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs with expertise on a range of nuclear policy and nonproliferation issues. Astrid’s analysis at CSIS: https://www.csis.org/analysis/macrons-ile-longue-speech-updating-frances-nuclear-doctrine-new-era Official translation of Macron’s speech: https://uk.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/president-delivers-speech-frances-nuclear-deterrence Select Media Coverage: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/05/-france-nuclear-deterrence-strategy-macron.html https://apnews.com/article/france-nuclear-weapons-macron-deterrence-ccbcfb03ef4a1e3efe287fb744adb148 https://www.france24.com/en/france/20260302-macron-unveils-france-nuclear-strategy-eu-counter-russian-aggression-wavering-us This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit strategicsimplicity.substack.com [https://strategicsimplicity.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]