The Bayesian Conspiracy

We talk with Max Harms on the air for the first time since 2017 [https://www.thebayesianconspiracy.com/2017/03/29-fiction-and-fun-with-max-harms/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss]! He’s got a new book coming out (pre-order your copy here [https://maxharms.com/redheart?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] or at Amazon [https://amzn.to/3JlqAU6?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss]) and we spend about the first half talking about If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies [https://amzn.to/47s263s?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss]. ---------------------------------------- LINKS * Max’s first book, Crystal Society [https://crystalbooks.ai/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] * Eneasz’s audiobook [https://hpmorpodcast.com/?page_id=1958&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] of about the first two thirds of the first book * And the official audiobooks page [https://crystalbooks.ai/audio/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] * Flash fiction [https://mark---lawrence.blogspot.com/2025/08/the-ai-vs-authors-results-part-2.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] contest that Eneasz mentioned * Max’s post on Anthropic Reasoning [https://utopiandreams.substack.com/p/anthropic-reasoning?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] * Red Heart [https://amzn.to/3JlqAU6?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] * If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies [https://amzn.to/47s263s?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] 00:00:05 – Max Harms 01:28:53 – Guild of the Rose [https://guildoftherose.org/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] 01:31:00 – Miscellanea 01:40:58 – Thank the Supporter! [https://thebayesianconspiracy.substack.com/subscribe?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] ---------------------------------------- Our Patreon [https://www.patreon.com/BayesianConspiracy?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss], or if you prefer Our SubStack [https://thebayesianconspiracy.substack.com/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] Hey look, we have a discord [https://discord.gg/Vwskrh7cZj?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss]! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with  [https://www.patreon.com/BayesianConspiracy?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss]The Guild of the Rose [https://guildoftherose.org/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss], check them out. [https://www.patreon.com/BayesianConspiracy?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] ---------------------------------------- LessWrong Sequence Posts [https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Less_Wrong/All_articles?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus, returning soon

Jay talks with us about finding Alpha – returns above the base rate – in every day life (and what this means). LINKS Optimize Everything [https://optimizeeverything.substack.com/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss], Jay’s substack Jay on Twitter [https://x.com/jayluxeed?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] Arbor Trading Bootcamp [https://trading.camp/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] Kelsey’s argument that We Need To Be Able To Sue AI Companies [https://www.theargumentmag.com/p/we-need-to-be-able-to-sue-ai-companies?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] 00:00:05 – Alpha with Jay 01:28:53 – Guild of the Rose [https://guildoftherose.org/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] 01:31:00 – Miscellanea 01:40:58 – Thank the Supporter! [https://thebayesianconspiracy.substack.com/subscribe?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] ---------------------------------------- Our Patreon [https://www.patreon.com/BayesianConspiracy?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss], or if you prefer Our SubStack [https://thebayesianconspiracy.substack.com/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] Hey look, we have a discord [https://discord.gg/Vwskrh7cZj?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss]! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with  [https://www.patreon.com/BayesianConspiracy?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss]The Guild of the Rose [https://guildoftherose.org/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss], check them out. [https://www.patreon.com/BayesianConspiracy?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] ---------------------------------------- LessWrong Sequence Posts [https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Less_Wrong/All_articles?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus, returning soon

We continue discussing Nostalgebraist’s “The Void” [https://nostalgebraist.tumblr.com/post/785766737747574784/the-void?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] in the context of how to relate to LLMs. If God imagines Claude hard enough, does Claude become real? LINKS The Void [https://nostalgebraist.tumblr.com/post/785766737747574784/the-void?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] Audio reading of The Void [https://askwhocastsai.substack.com/p/the-void-by-nostalgebraist?utm_source=publication-search&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss], from AskWho The referenced episode [https://www.thebayesianconspiracy.com/2023/02/182-the-birth-and-death-of-sydney-bing-ai/?utm_source=chatgpt.com&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] where the three of us spoke of Janus’s post “Simulators” Claude-Clark post – Simulacra Welfare: Meet Clark [https://gracekind.net/blog/simulacrawelfare/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss], by Grace Kind Golden Gate Claude [https://www.anthropic.com/news/golden-gate-claude?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] Vox on Shrimp Welfare [https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/461008/shrimp-welfare-project-controversy?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] Kelsey Piper on UBI not helping Americans [https://www.theargumentmag.com/p/giving-people-money-helped-less-than?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] Eneasz story collection “Dear Grom [https://amzn.to/40A01jW?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss]” and his novel “What Lies Dreaming [https://amzn.to/2EJhOKZ?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss]” Paid Bonus content for the week – The lads get sniped [https://thebayesianconspiracy.substack.com/p/247-bonus-sniped-by-dooflist?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] by DoofMovies.com [https://doofmovies.com/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] (patreon [https://www.patreon.com/posts/140109898?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss], substack [https://thebayesianconspiracy.substack.com/p/247-bonus-sniped-by-dooflist?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss]) 00:00:05 – The Void 01:32:08 – Guild of the Rose [https://guildoftherose.org/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] 01:35:41 – Miscellanea 01:41:45 – Thank the Supporter! [https://thebayesianconspiracy.substack.com/subscribe?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] ---------------------------------------- Our Patreon [https://www.patreon.com/BayesianConspiracy?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss], or if you prefer Our SubStack [https://thebayesianconspiracy.substack.com/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] Hey look, we have a discord [https://discord.gg/Vwskrh7cZj?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss]! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with  [https://www.patreon.com/BayesianConspiracy?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss]The Guild of the Rose [https://guildoftherose.org/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss], check them out. [https://www.patreon.com/BayesianConspiracy?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] ---------------------------------------- LessWrong Sequence Posts [https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Less_Wrong/All_articles?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus, returning soon

We discuss Nostalgebraist’s “The Void” [https://nostalgebraist.tumblr.com/post/785766737747574784/the-void?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] in the context of how to relate to LLMs. “When you talk to ChatGPT, who or what are you talking to?” LINKS The Void [https://nostalgebraist.tumblr.com/post/785766737747574784/the-void?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] Audio reading of The Void [https://askwhocastsai.substack.com/p/the-void-by-nostalgebraist?utm_source=publication-search&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss], from AskWho The referenced episode [https://www.thebayesianconspiracy.com/2023/02/182-the-birth-and-death-of-sydney-bing-ai/?utm_source=chatgpt.com&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] where the three of us spoke of Janus’s post “Simulators” The Measure of a Man [https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/The_Measure_Of_A_Man_(episode)?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] episode Darmok [https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/Darmok_(episode)?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] episode Kyle Fish on 80,000 Hours [https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/kyle-fish-ai-welfare-anthropic/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] podcast Contra Shrimp Welfare [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MvjYziFxYj7oHbCJe/contra-shrimp-welfare?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] UBI Doesn’t Work [https://www.theargumentmag.com/p/giving-people-money-helped-less-than?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] 00:00:05 – The Void 01:29:17 – Guild of the Rose [https://guildoftherose.org/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] 01:31:10 – Miscellanea 01:40:57 – Thank the Supporter! [https://thebayesianconspiracy.substack.com/subscribe?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] ---------------------------------------- Our Patreon [https://www.patreon.com/BayesianConspiracy?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss], or if you prefer Our SubStack [https://thebayesianconspiracy.substack.com/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] Hey look, we have a discord [https://discord.gg/Vwskrh7cZj?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss]! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with  [https://www.patreon.com/BayesianConspiracy?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss]The Guild of the Rose [https://guildoftherose.org/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss], check them out. [https://www.patreon.com/BayesianConspiracy?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] ---------------------------------------- LessWrong Sequence Posts [https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Less_Wrong/All_articles?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss] Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus, returning soon

Audio reading of The Void [https://askwhocastsai.substack.com/p/the-void-by-nostalgebraist?utm_source=publication-search&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss], from AskWho