The Conditional Release Program

AI slop shownotes. This one gets spicy on Israel and Palestine! Podcast Episode: Two Jacks – Episode 114 Post-Production for Recording 1 Run Date: 30 May 2025 SHOWNOTES Introduction (0:00) * Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack return after a brief hiatus due to Joel traveling to Hawaii. * Opening banter about Hawaii, the weather, and a lighthearted remark about avoiding bushfires. AUSTRALIAN POLITICS AND ELECTION ANALYSIS (0:59) * Deep dive into the aftermath of a recent election result, including: * Two-party preferred votes: 55.19% to 44.81%. * Discussions about the myths of how a "first past the post" voting system would have impacted the election outcomes. * Historical context on the introduction of Australia's preferential voting system in 1918 to prevent Labor domination. * Commentary on Tom Elliott’s controversial opinion about voting systems. * Analysis of minor parties and how the removal of preferential voting would affect their representation, disadvantaging groups like the Greens or minor right parties. * Hong Kong Jack shares insights about how voting systems shape campaign strategies in Australia versus the UK. COALITION DYNAMICS AND LEADERSHIP UPDATES (6:00) * Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack dissect the challenges facing the Coalition post-election: * Tension between the Liberals and Nationals sparked by Littleproud’s leadership and uncertain policy positioning. * Discussion on key personnel changes, including the demotion of shadow ministers like Sarah Henderson and Jane Hume. * Predictions of leadership instability within the Nationals, with Jack the Insider forecasting Littleproud’s leadership might not survive past November. BROADER POLITICAL LANDSCAPE COMMENTARY (14:00) * Speculation on the viability of the Liberal Party as it moves further right ideologically while alienating moderates. * Historical perspective on the collapse of right-wing parties in Australian politics and the risk of the Liberal Party facing similar consequences. * Critique of Peter Dutton's focus on regional Australia, leaving traditional city-based constituencies vulnerable to Teal independents. INTERNATIONAL POLITICS: US, UK, AND POLAND (26:00) United Kingdom: * Decline in support for Keir Starmer’s Labour due to coalition infighting and lack of direction. Rumors about Angela Rayner potentially challenging Starmer for leadership. * Discussions touch on “super injunction” rumors and polling trends showing growing support for Reform UK. Poland: * Highlights of Poland’s economic growth, with projections of it surpassing Japan in GDP per capita by 2026–27. * Observations about Poland’s political stability and the upcoming Presidential Election, with tensions between hard-right and centrist candidates. United States: * A critical review of Trump’s controversial economic policies and debt ceiling negotiations. * Jack the Insider critiques the "Make America Healthy Again" initiative by Bobby Kennedy Jr., particularly its stance on restricting government scientists from publishing research and COVID vaccine policies. * Broader concerns about the decline in public trust toward pandemic management. MIDDLE EAST: ISRAEL-GAZA CONFLICT (1:04:00) * Analysis of the dire humanitarian crisis in Gaza with criticism of aid distribution and alleged human rights violations. * Jack the Insider highlights concerns about Israel’s political motivations and the use of Palestinians as human shields. * Debate on whether Hamas or Netanyahu bears greater moral responsibility, with differing perspectives from Hong Kong Jack and Jack the Insider. SPORTS CORNER (1:13:00) Australian Rules Football (AFL): * Collingwood’s dominance this season; speculation on the flag being theirs to lose. * Challenges faced by Carlton and Sydney as they linger outside the finals contention. Rugby: * Expectations for the British Lions Tour and its significance for Australian Rugby Union. * Insights into the resilience and consistent performance of the Brumbies compared to other Super Rugby teams. Soccer: * Ange Postecoglou’s success at Tottenham Hotspur, securing their first trophy in years amidst uncertainty about his tenure. Cricket: * Cameron Green’s exceptional batting form in county cricket and its implications for Australia’s Test Championship squad selection. State of Origin Rugby League: * New South Wales claim a gritty Game 1 victory against Queensland at Lang Park, with the series set to continue at Optus Stadium in Perth and the Olympic Stadium in Sydney. CLOSING THOUGHTS (1:28:00) * Jack the Insider invites listeners to send in feedback and contributions for future episodes. * Upcoming topics preview: The Victorian Liberal Party’s internal turmoil, with potential fallout over legal disputes involving former leader John Pesutto. Thank you for tuning in to Two Jacks! Email Jack the Insider: jacktheinsider@gmail.com [jacktheinsider@gmail.com] Subscribe to Hong Kong Jack on Substack for updates!

In this episode of The Two Jacks, Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack tackle the latest in Australian politics, global media developments, and international affairs. It's a fast-paced discussion of the political landscape, leadership upheavals, cabinet shakeups, pressing policies, and more. Tune in for sharp observations and witty takes! KEY TOPICS COVERED 1. Australian Politics * The Liberal Party's election of a new leader, Suzanne ("Sussan") Ley. * A deep dive into her unconventional numerology backstory. * Her leadership votes (29–25) as she edges out Angus Taylor. * Ted O’Brien as deputy leader – his Sunshine Coast seat, ties to Taiwan, and study in Asia. * The Nationals' direction and challenges: David Littleproud retains leadership while debates over net-zero emissions targets continue. * The tension between the Coalition's philosophical stance on nuclear energy and policy realignment. 1. Labor's New Cabinet * The fallout of Anthony Albanese’s factional compromises in reshuffling the cabinet. * The exclusion of Ed Husic and Mark Dreyfuß sparks conversations about faction-driven decisions. * The introduction of “special envoys” within the ministry – quirky or functional? * Reflections on the dynamics between faction leaders and Prime Minister Albanese. 1. Post-Referendum Delusions * Analysis of the repercussions of the Voice referendum loss. * How the Coalition misread their referendum win as momentum for taking government. * The dangers of hubris in both major Australian political parties. 1. Gaza Crisis and Morality in Politics * A reflective discussion on the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and its global implications. 1. Global Geopolitics * Putin’s stance following European leaders’ ultimatum. * U.S. tariffs on China: economic realities and diplomatic maneuvers. * Commentary on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict with Donald Trump’s threats of sanctions. 1. Germany’s Rearmament and Political Landscape * The challenges around Germany’s massive military investment and reshaped leadership under conservative Frederick Merz. * The rise of far-right party AFD and its broader European implications. 1. Immigration in Focus * The political shift in the U.K. as Sir Keir Starmer changes his stance on immigration policies. * Lessons from Australian immigration history and reflections on Europe’s response. 1. Sport, Pop Culture & More * Cricket: Tribute to Virat Kohli as he retires from Test cricket. His stats, legacy, and influence on Indian cricket. * AFL: A breakdown of the tight matches, umpiring controversies, and the top 8 ladder. Should draws remain? * NRL: Celebrating Latrell Mitchell’s game-winning 50-meter field goal and the rise of unexpected teams like the NZ Warriors. * IPL and Security Concerns: Adjustments to the tournament amidst heightened conflict. * Nostalgia-filled commentary on Pope Leo XIV (the American Chicagoan Pope) and his potential love for baseball’s Chicago White Sox. 1. Humor & Extras * Stories of televangelist Jim Bakker’s plea for funds and Nigerian email scam jokes rounded out with trademark Two Jacks humor. LISTENER TAKEAWAYS * The Two Jacks dissect Australian media with insider insight, offering a combination of timely analysis and a bit of much-needed levity on heavy topics. * From the cricket pitch to political caucuses, this episode highlights the intersection of power, performance, and policy. LINKS/RESOURCES * Follow Jack the Insider on Twitter: @JackTheInsider [https://twitter.com/JackTheInsider] * Subscribe to Hong Kong Jack’s Substack: HongKongJack.Substack.com [https://hongkongjack.substack.com/] CONTACT THE TWO JACKS Have feedback, questions, or topics you’d like covered in a future episode? Reach out: * Email: The Two Jacks [conditionalreleaseprogram@gmail.com] Join us for Episode 113 of The Two Jacks for bold takes, sharp critiques, and a few laughs along the way!

MORE UNINTENTIONALLY FUNNY AI SLOP SHOWNOTES. Peter Hoistead? Thanks Gemini. Thanks listeners. We love you. Buy CBCo it's excellent beer. The Conditional Release Program - Episode 185: Federal Election 2025 Post-Special Hosts: Joel Hill & Jack the Insider (Peter Hoistead) Overall Theme: A deep dive into the results and implications of the 2025 Australian Federal Election, focusing on Labor's historic victory, the Coalition's catastrophic loss, and the performance of minor parties and independents. Key Segments & Talking Points: (Part 1 - Approximate Timestamps based on original transcript, subject to adjustment) * [00:00:00 - 00:01:23] Introduction & Election Overview * Joel laments being banned from betting on the election, particularly Labor's strong odds. * Jack notes Joel would have won significantly, especially on Labor at $2.60. * Historic Labor Win: Anthony "Albo" Albanese leads Labor to a significant victory. * Libs sent into an "existential crisis." * Albo is the first PM to be re-elected since John Howard in 2004. * Largest Labor victory on a two-party preferred basis since John Curtin in 1943 (votes still being counted). * Crucial Stat: The Albanese government is the only first-term government to have a swing towards it in Australian political history. * [00:01:23 - 00:03:38] Significance of the Swing to Labor * Previous first-term governments (Howard '98, Hawke '84, Fraser '77, Whitlam '74, Menzies) all had swings against them when seeking a second term. * Albo's government achieved an approximate 4% swing towards it (votes still being counted). * Discussion points: Where it went right for Labor, and wrong for the Coalition, Greens, and Teals. * Far-right "Cookers" performed terribly. Pauline Hanson's One Nation (FONY) might see minor representation. * [00:03:38 - 00:05:11] Patreon & Sponsor Shout-outs * Reminder to support the podcast on Patreon: www.patreon.com/theconditionalreleaseprogram [https://www.getmerlin.in/chat/www.patreon.com/theconditionalreleaseprogram] (for as little as $5/month). * CB Co. Beer: Praised for their IPA and new Hazy XPA. Competition to win $100,000. Use code CRP10 for 10% off at cbco.beer [http://cbco.beer/]. * [00:05:11 - 00:08:52] Polling Inaccuracies & Liberal Optimism * Reiteration of the ~4% swing to Labor. * Comparison of final poll predictions vs. actual results: * Freshwater: Labor 51.5% (was Liberal pollster, told Libs they were close). * Newspoll: 52.5% (Labor used their private polling). * Essential: 53.5%. * YouGov: 52.2% - 52.9%. * Polling companies significantly underestimated Labor's vote, especially those advising the Coalition. * The misplaced optimism at Liberal Party HQ on election night. * [00:08:52 - 00:16:00] Specific Seat Results & Labor Gains * Gilmore (NSW South Coast): Fiona Phillips (Labor) won 55-45 (3-4% swing to her), despite Andrew Constance (Liberal) being the favourite. * Bennelong (Howard's old seat): Jeremy Laxail (Labor) won 59-41 against Scott Young (problematic Liberal candidate), a 10% swing to Labor. * Parramatta: Andrew Charlton (Labor) won 62-38 (was 53.47 in 2022). * Aston (Victoria): Labor won in a historic by-election previously, now a 4% swing to the Labor candidate, winning 53-47. * Boothby (SA): Louise Miller-Frost (Labor) achieved an 8% swing, holding the seat 61-39. * Tangney (WA): Sam Lim (Labor, ex-cop & dolphin trainer) secured a 3% swing, now 56-44. Large Bhutanese diaspora noted. * Leichhardt (FNQ): Labor's Matt Smith won 57-43 after Warren Entsch (LNP) retired (10% swing). * Hunter (NSW): Dan Repiccioli (Labor) re-elected with 44% primary vote (5% swing on primary). Fended off Nats and One Nation (Stuart Bonds' inflated vote claims by "One Australia" on X). * [00:16:00 - 00:18:49] Diversifying Parliament & Women in Politics * Praise for non-lawyer backgrounds in Parliament (e.g., Dan Repiccioli, Sam Lim). * Critique of the typical lawyer/staffer/union pathway. * Labor's success in diversifying candidate backgrounds and increasing female representation. * Liberals struggling with female representation despite some efforts. Discussion of potential quotas in the Liberal party and the backlash it would cause. * Margaret Thatcher quote: "If you want something said, ask a man. If you want something done, ask a woman." * [00:18:49 - 00:27:26] The Teals: Mixed Results & Challenges * Initial appearance of a Teal "romp" on election night. * Bradfield (NSW North Shore): Teal Nicolette Boele (Burle/Bola) behind Liberal Giselle Kaptarian by 178 votes (updated during recording). * Goldstein (VIC): Tim Wilson (Liberal) leading Zoe Daniel (Teal) by 925 votes. Wilson is likely back. Joel comments on Wilson's IPA association vs. his "gay, wet, mediocre, progressive side." Jack notes Wilson often highlights his sexuality. * Jim Chalmers' quip about Tim Wilson: "Popular for all those who haven't met him." * Kooyong (VIC): Monique Ryan (Teal) leading by 1002 votes (97,000 counted, ~8,000 postals to go). Redistribution added parts of Toorak, making it harder for Ryan. * Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer: "Trust fund renter" controversy, owns multiple properties, London bolthole. * Corflute wars in Kooyong: Hamer campaign's excessive use of A-frames, obstructing walkways, went to Supreme Court over council limits. Jack doubts the impact of corflutes. * [00:27:26 - 00:31:28] Why Did the Teals Go Backwards? * Liberal party invested heavily in Kooyong and Goldstein. * Voters potentially preferring a local member who is a Minister or part of the government. * Redistribution impact in Kooyong (addition of Toorak). * Zali Steggall's success in Warringah partly due to "fruitcake" Liberal opponents like Katherine Deves. * [00:31:28 - 00:40:37] The Greens: Significant Losses * Lost all lower house seats. Adam Bandt (leader) gone from Melbourne. * Lost Brisbane (Max Chandler Mather) and Griffith back to Labor. * Ryan (South Brisbane): Likely Labor win in a three-way contest. * Greens will have no lower house representation. * Key Reason: Housing policy standoff. Accused of holding up Labor's housing bill for over a year (affecting funding for domestic violence victims, homeless), pursuing "perfection" over compromise. * [00:40:37 - 00:49:57] Deep Dive: Housing Policy Challenges * A major challenge for the Albanese government. Not an easy fix. * Supply-side changes could devalue existing homes or slow growth, angering homeowners. * Joel’s view: Subsidized housing (rent-to-own, means-tested) wouldn't touch the high-end market. * Negative gearing: Not a quick fix; removing it overnight unlikely to change much; issue is supply. * Homeowner expectations of property value growth. * Construction industry at full tilt; skills shortages. * CFMEU's role in skilled migration for construction. * Free TAFE importance for reskilling/upskilling. * Linton Besser (Media Watch) criticism of Labor "building" houses when they reconditioned unlivable ones – Joel argues this still increases supply. * [00:49:57 - 00:59:16] Deep Dive: Childcare Policy & Global Economic Headwinds * Childcare another area for government focus. * Labor's childcare policy: Rebates for high earners (e.g., $325k combined income). * High cost of childcare; need for better pay for childcare workers (Labor delivered a pay spike). * Ownership of childcare centers (Peter Dutton reference) and profit-making. Call for more public childcare. * Uncertain global economic times, Trump tariffs. * Port of Los Angeles imports down by one-third. * US Q1 economy shrank 0.3%; recession likely. * Japan, China, South Korea meeting to discuss tariff responses; hold significant US debt. Japanese warning to US re: trade negotiations. * [00:59:16 - 01:07:13] What Went Wrong for the Coalition? Answer: Everything. * Gas Price Fixing Policy: Cobbled together, no consultation with industry (unlike Rudd's mining tax failure), potentially unconstitutional (taxing for benefit of some states over others). * Work From Home Policy Disaster: * Conceived by Jane Hume and Peter Dutton, no Shadow Cabinet consultation. * Initial messaging: All Commonwealth public servants, then just Canberra. * Jane Hume's media run: Claimed all WFH is 20% less productive, citing a study. * Implied WFH employees are "bludgers," alienating a vast number of voters (including partners of tradies). * Labor capitalized on this after door-knocking feedback. Policy eventually walked back. * Defence Policy: Released in the last week, vague promise to spend 3% of GDP, no specifics on acquisitions. Andrew Hastie (Shadow Defence) reportedly wants out of the portfolio. * Fuel Excise Policy: Halving fuel excise for a year. Took a week for Dutton to do a photo-op at a service station. Fuel prices had already dropped. * Melbourne Airport Rail Link Funding: Announced at a winery. * Vehicle Emissions Policy: Clarifications issued within 48 hours. * Generally a shambolic campaign, studied for years to come. * [01:07:13 - 01:08:55] The Nationals & Nuclear Policy Fallout * Nats trying to spin a better result than Libs, but didn't win Calare (Andrew Gee back as Indy). * Nuclear Policy: Coalition embarrassed to discuss it. Nats insist on keeping it. * Policy originated as a way for Libs to get Nats to support Net Zero by 2050. * Massive costs and timelines: Hinkley Point C (UK) example – 65 billion pounds, years of delays. US Georgia plant similar. * Legislative hurdles: Repealing Howard-era ban, state-level bans (even LNP QLD Premier Chris O'Fooley against it). * State-funded, "socialist" approach due to lack of private investment. * [01:08:55 - 01:15:49] Coalition Campaign Failures & Spokespeople * Debate on government vs. private industry running power. * Lack of effective Coalition spokespeople: Susan Ley sidelined, Jane Hume promoted. Angus Taylor perceived as lazy. * Angus Taylor's past water license scandal ("Australia's Watergate," Cayman Islands structure). * [01:15:49 - 01:28:03] Demographics: A Tide Against the Liberals * Women: Voted ~58-42 for Labor (two-party preferred), worse than under Morrison. Libs failed to address issues like climate, domestic violence. * Language Other Than English at Home (LOTE): 60% backed Labor (Redbridge polling, Cos Samaras). Indian and Chinese diaspora significant, impacting Deakin and Menzies (Keith Wallahan, a moderate, lost Menzies). * Gen Z & Millennials (18-45): Now outnumber Baby Boomers (60+), voted 60-40 Labor (TPP). * Preferencing: Labor "gamed the system well"; Liberals' deal with One Nation backfired in messaging to urban areas. * Strategy Failure: Liberals walked away from "heartland" Teal-lost seats, wrongly believing voters were wrong. Dutton's 2023 claim of Libs being "party of regional Australia" failed. No connection or network in targeted outer-suburban/regional seats. * Female Pre-selection: Aspiration of 50% in 2019, achieved 34% in 2025. "Male, white, middle-class, mediocre." * Sarah Henderson Example: Lost Corangamite in 2019, returned via Senate vacancy. Criticized as a "waste of space," arrogant for seeking re-entry. * Both parties have taken safe seats for granted (factional gifts), but Labor learning. Example: Batman (now Cooper, Jed Carney) won back from Greens after better candidate selection. * [01:28:03 - 01:36:42] Fond Farewells: Election Casualties * Peter Dutton: Lost his seat of Dickson (held 20+ years), got "smashed." Likely preferred losing seat to facing party room fallout. Gracious concession speech. Australia's strong electoral process praised (democracy sausage, volunteers, AEC, peaceful concession). * Michael Sukkar (Deakin, VIC): "Unpleasant piece of work." * Recount of February incident: Sukkar, at Dutton's prompting, used a point of order to cut off Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus (Jewish) during an emotional speech about anti-Semitism and his family's Holocaust connection (Shiloh story). Dreyfus called Sukkar "disgusting." Sukkar moved "that the member no longer be heard." Widely condemned. * Gerard Rennick (QLD Senator): Anti-COVID vaccine, spread misinformation (diabetes, dementia links). Jack recounts being attacked by Rennick's "poison monkeys" on X after writing about it. Rennick gone, likely self-funded much of his campaign. (Part 2 - Timestamps restart from 00:00:00 but are a continuation, add ~1 hour 36 mins 50 secs to these for continuous flow) * [01:36:50 - 01:44:07] The Fractured Hard Right ("Cookers") - Dismal Performance * Generally went nowhere electorally. * UAP (United Australia Party) / Trumpeter Patriots (John Ruddock): 2.38% in NSW Senate (down from UAP's 3.2% in 2022). Less money spent than previous Clive Palmer campaigns. * Libertarian Democrats (Lib Dems): 1.99% in NSW Senate. Controversial name didn't help. Alliance with H.A.R.T (formerly IMOP, Michael O'Neill) and Gerard Rennick's People First Party. * Monica Smit's calls to "unite" contrasted with these groups already forming alliances without her. * These three parties combined got less than 2% in NSW. Lib Dems <1.5% nationally outside NSW. * Pauline Hanson's One Nation (FON): 5.8% in NSW Senate (up 2 points from 2022). "Teeny Weeny" might get up in QLD, maybe one in WA, but not enough in NSW. * Family First: 1.67%. * Cannibalizing each other's fractional votes; no real electoral success. "Cooked bullshit" validated briefly during pandemic but no longer. * [01:44:07 - 01:55:30] Cooker Delusions & Financial Realities * Rodney Culleton (Great Australia Party, WA): 0.97% (down from 1.05% in 2022, <1000 votes). * Facebook comment: "Billy Bay" claiming Rennick's race is "close but unlikely" – met with derision (Rennick at ~10% of a quota). * Cooker commenter "Brad": "It was never about forming government... Isn't it about getting candidates into the Senate to hold balance of power?" – Delusional. * Funding Threshold: 4% of the vote in House or Senate to get election funding (deposit back). Most minor "freedom" parties will not reach this. Expensive failure for Ruddock, Culleton etc. (Clive Palmer won't care). * Rodney Culleton on crutches, asking for help collecting corflutes. Still an undischarged bankrupt (potential issue with candidate registration stat dec). * [01:55:30 - 02:09:00] More Cooker Antics & Failed Candidates * Craig "Crackers" Kelly: Number 1 on Libertarian Senate ticket in NSW. Likely his political end. * Cooker dreams of Senate balance of power via double dissolution are unfounded – even with a halved quota, they are nowhere near. * Joel’s anecdote: Acquaintance supporting Gerard Rennick, suggesting some surface-level cut-through for People First Party, but election results prove otherwise. John Ruddock's efforts to make Lib Dems the "party of cookers" with Kelly as lead failed spectacularly. * Dai Le (Fowler, NSW): Re-elected. Breaks Joel's heart ("total asshole"). Ben Fordham headline: Le claims Labor tried to buy votes. Her initial election attributed to Labor parachuting Kristina Keneally. Le now seen as a premier "cooker voice" as Rennick, Malcolm Roberts, and Alex Antic have limited national reach (Antic more on Telegram). * Antic's influence has hurt SA Liberals (only 2 rural seats, nothing in Adelaide). * Avi Yemini/Rukshan Fernando/Joel Jammal "freedom" telecast: Alex Antic was a guest, claiming good chances for some (unnamed) "cooker" candidates. * [02:09:00 - 02:21:45] Mark "Mack" McFarlane & Cooker Live Stream * Mark McFarlane (Mark Mack): The elder abuser (court finding: withheld medication, financial exploitation). Ran as an independent in Indi. * Exposed by Tinfoil Tales, story picked up by mainstream media. Liberals changed preferences away from him. * Freedom movement largely hasn't disowned him (Beck Freedom an outlier). McFarlane claims to be a "targeted individual." * Received 1,268 votes (~1-2%), lost deposit. * Cooker Live Stream (Avi Yemini, Rukshan Fernando, Joel Jammal): * Monica Smit: Appeared, advocated for "freedom" people to join major parties (Liberals) to make change. Joel questions her understanding of politics and impact on Liberal party IQ/values. * Drew Pavlou: Guest, "destroyed" by Avi Yemini in an edited clip ("leftist justifies Labor vote"). Drew actually voted Labor first, Greens last. Content designed for cooker base. * Topher Field: Appeared. * Morgan C. Jonas: Spent money on materials for Hunter (Dan Repiccioli's seat). * AI-generated posters: "Burgers, Bowen and Blunders: The Dan Burglar - Put Labor Last." (Features Dan, Chris Bowen, and an Albo/Noam Chomsky hybrid). * "Double Trouble" (Albo & Sid Allen): "More Debt, More Crime" – became a joke. * On the live stream, 2 hours in, Jonas claimed Dutton would get a surprise victory/form minority government. (Jack notes he called it for Labor by 7:30 pm). * Jonas claimed cooker vote around 16% in Victorian Senate (actual, including FON, is ~9.6%; without FON/Family First, much lower). * [02:21:45 - 02:31:36] Russell Broadbent & Final Cooker Thoughts * Russell Broadbent (Monash, VIC): Incumbent Liberal who lost pre-selection (to Mary Aldred, who got a 2.2% swing to her), ran as an independent. * Broadbent got 10% as an Indy. Convinced he lost pre-selection for being a "cooker." * "Fucked his career" by spending too much time on the internet (like Craig Kelly). Could have remained Member for Hughes. * Broadbent: Father of the House, 25 years, never front bench. Time for fresh blood. * Albo gave him a "free ad" during campaign, pitying his treatment. * Appeared on Topher Field/Children's Health Defence Australia "election insights." * Recent Broadbent Facebook post thanking pharmacists met with overwhelmingly negative comments from his new cooker base. * Will have a good retirement on parliamentary super. * [02:31:36 - END] Outro & Contact * Subscribe, five-star review. * Twitter: @JacktheInsider, @CrunchyMoses (with a K). * Email: theconditionalreleaseprogram@gmail.com [theconditionalreleaseprogram@gmail.com] * Joke about joining the Liberal Party for renewal, Jack offers to cross-dress.

More AI notes for y'all. They're not bad! Episode Link: Find this and other episodes at The Conditional Release Program on RedCircle [https://redcircle.com/tcrp]. Recorded: May 5, 2025 (two days after the Australian Federal Election) Hosts: Jack the Insider & Hong Kong Jack In this episode, The Two Jacks dissect the stunning Australian federal election results, explore a surprising political turnaround in Canada, ponder the next Pope, and touch on global political shifts from the UK to Germany, and the latest from Trump's America. (00:00:00) Introduction & Australian Election: An Orderly Affair Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack kick off by praising the smooth and festive nature of the Australian federal election, highlighting the efficiency of the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) and the beloved "democracy sausage." (00:02:21) The Pre-Poll Phenomenon A discussion on the increasing trend of pre-polling, with over half of Australians casting their vote before election day. The hosts debate the merits of shortening the pre-polling period, with Hong Kong Jack lamenting the decline of traditional Saturday voting. (00:06:06) Betting Blunders & Historic Results Labor's remarkable journey from $15 outsiders to $1.07 unbackable favourites to form government is reviewed. The episode highlights key historical markers: * Anthony Albanese: The first Prime Minister re-elected since 2004. * A significant Labor victory, with Albanese leading the first government in Australian political history to increase its majority in a second term. (00:09:17) Seat Swings, Mea Culpas & The Greens' Tumble The hosts reflect on their pre-election predictions against the reality of significant swings to Labor (e.g., a 10% swing in Bennelong). Labor is projected to win around 90 seats. * The Greens: A tough election, with leader Adam Bandt likely to lose his seat in Melbourne. Zoe Daniel (Teal) is also in a precarious position in Goldstein. The Greens may lose Ryan back to the Liberals and potentially face no representation in the House of Representatives. (00:13:38) A UK Perspective & Labor's Resurgence Hong Kong Jack shares insights from the UK, where observers noted Labor's landslide and the "leaderless, rudderless, pointless" state of the Coalition. This challenges the narrative that incumbents always lose, citing recent Canadian and Australian results. (00:16:27) Liberal Campaign Catastrophe: A "Don't Do This" Case Study A deep dive into the Liberal Party's "dreadful campaign," marked by: * The ill-conceived work-from-home policy, poorly communicated by Senator Jane Hume and lacking consultation. * A string of policy backflips and poorly planned announcements (e.g., fuel excise cut, Melbourne airport rail funding announced at a winery). * Peter Dutton has accepted responsibility for the campaign's failures. (00:22:46) Trump's Take & The Muted MAGA Effect Donald Trump's reaction to the Australian election (congratulating "Albert" while feigning ignorance of Dutton) is discussed. The hosts agree that MAGA influence was minimal, with Albanese's message of "kindness is not weakness" resonating more strongly. (00:25:13) The Liberal Party's Existential Crossroads A critical analysis of the Liberal Party's future, having lost traditional heartland seats and failed to broaden its appeal beyond an aging demographic. * The danger of vacating the political centre and the flawed strategy of chasing a new "working-class" constituency. * Hong Kong Jack draws parallels to Labor's wilderness years (1977, 1996), emphasizing the need for honest self-reflection for any chance of recovery. * Labor's structural advantages: benefiting from Green preferences and a more unified progressive base compared to a fragmented right-wing, further diluted by entities like Clive Palmer's party. (00:39:58) Senate Snapshot: Stability Prevails An overview of the projected Senate makeup across the states: * NSW & VIC: Likely Labor 3, Liberals 2, Greens 1. * QLD: Labor 2, Libs 2, Greens 1, with One Nation's Malcolm Roberts likely re-elected. * TAS: Jacqui Lambie expected to return. * ACT: Independent David Pocock secures his quota alongside a Labor senator. * Overall, the Senate composition is unlikely to see dramatic changes. David Pocock is commended for his diligent work. (00:42:25) Who Will Lead the Liberals? A Party in Search of Direction Speculation on the future leadership of the Liberal Party, with few obvious candidates emerging from a depleted frontbench. Dan Tehan is mentioned as a possible moderate caretaker, though the path back to government looks long and arduous. (00:45:58) Albanese: The New "Labor God" & Chalmers' Contribution Anthony Albanese is lauded for his historic achievement, with Jim Chalmers highlighted as a key performer and media operator for Labor, despite Hong Kong Jack's gentle ribbing about his lengthy essays. (00:48:56) Canadian Politics Upended: Liberals' Shock Comeback A look at the Canadian election, where the Liberals achieved a stunning turnaround, with Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre facing a potential seat loss. Donald Trump's inflammatory rhetoric towards Canada is seen as a contributing factor to this shift. (00:52:12) Vatican Watch: Speculating on the Next Pope With Pope Francis's papacy in its later stages, the hosts discuss potential successors. Italian cardinals like Pietro Parolin are frontrunners, but names from Africa and the Philippines also surface. Hong Kong Jack references Morris West's The Shoes of the Fisherman for insights into papal conclaves. (00:55:52) Sir Tony Blair on Net Zero & The Reality of Fossil Fuels Former UK PM Sir Tony Blair's call for a rethink of Net Zero policies due to cost implications is examined. Global fossil fuel consumption continues to rise (gas +2.7%, coal +1%, oil +0.8%), underscoring the challenge of the energy transition. (01:00:24) Trump's First 100 Days (Again): Low Approval, Tariff Troubles & Papal Attire Donald Trump's second term hits the 100-day mark with historically low approval ratings (39%). The economic impact of his tariffs is starting to bite (LA port imports down one-third, US economy shrinking). Adding to the unusual, Trump has been pictured in papal robes on the White House website, even expressing a desire to be Pope. (01:05:49) UK Political Fragmentation: Reform's Rise, Tories' Fall The UK's political landscape remains volatile. Recent local and by-election results project a national vote share that would see the Reform party at 30% and the Conservatives decimated to around 15% and potentially only five seats. (01:08:44) Germany Considers Banning Far-Right AFD Germany is contemplating a ban on the far-right AFD party, the largest single party in the Bundestag. The hosts discuss the problematic nature of banning popular political movements, arguing it often backfires. (01:11:21) Jay Rayner on Media: Mainstream vs. Social Food critic Jay Rayner's comments on the state of media are discussed, questioning the perceived universal informedness of mainstream journalists and acknowledging that both traditional and social media produce "rubbish." (01:15:29) AFL Round-Up: Carlton's Collapse, Collingwood-Geelong Classic * Carlton suffers a 10-goal drubbing by Adelaide, with Jack Silvani's absence keenly felt. * Collingwood vs. Geelong is hailed as a "cracker" game, showcasing great skill and sportsmanship. * Concerns are raised about key AFL games not being available on free-to-air television, potentially alienating younger fans. (01:22:18) Cricket News: Indian Prodigy & Vale "The Buzz" A 17-year-old Indian cricketer makes waves in the IPL with a century. The hosts pay tribute to Carlton AFL legend Peter Bosustow ("The Buzz"), who passed away after a battle with cancer, remembering his electrifying impact on the game. (01:27:27) NRL Update & Women's State of Origin Shines The Bulldogs continue their strong NRL run, while the Panthers finally notch a win. The NRL is praised for its successful promotion of the women's game, with the Women's State of Origin proving highly watchable. (01:29:51) An Ode to Whale Waste: Ecological Importance Hong Kong Jack shares a fascinating environmental tidbit on the crucial role of whale excrement and urine in ocean ecosystems, highlighting a baleen whale's impressive daily urine output of 950 litres. (01:32:10) Wrapping Up: A Transformative Election & How to Connect Jack the Insider concludes that Australia has witnessed a significant political transformation, with Anthony Albanese poised to be a long-term, impactful leader. * Connect with the hosts: * Jack the Insider: On X (formerly Twitter) @JackTheInsider (DMs open) * Hong Kong Jack: On Twitter and his Substack.

Listeners! It' election day and I cannot be bothered so it's AI shownotes this week. Enjoy! Hosts: Joel Hill & Dave (Cooker Watcher Supreme) (00:00:00) Introduction & Welcome Joel welcomes listeners and introduces guest host Dave, replacing Jack the Insider. Shoutout: CB Co Beer for election night viewing. Mention of a competition involving a boat trip. Election Calls to Action: Vote 1 Fiona Patton in the Victorian Senate, preference 2 Purple Pingers. (00:01:48) Tinfoil Tales Follow-Up: The Next Pope? Discussion on cooker theories about the next Pope (King Charles?). Lindsey Graham's tweet suggesting Donald Trump for Pope. 00:02:38 Dave reads the tweet. Trump's blue suit vs. Obama's tan suit controversy revisited. Brief thoughts on the late Pope's legacy and potential successor. (00:04:37) Dave's Cooker Report: Cessnock & CPAC Dave attended a meeting with Joel Jammal ("Eyebrows") in Cessnock (his 8th visit). Jammal debriefed the local unnamed "Freedom Group" (often linked to One Nation) on his CPAC trip. Local Candidates Present: Stuart Bonds (One Nation candidate for Hunter). Jennifer Stefanak (Trumpet of Patriots Newcastle) - Flat Earther, aliens are fallen angels, won NCAT case after dismissal from child services. Not allowed to speak despite attending. Mysterious Host: Christine Stevens, credited by Jammal as "brains behind the Wollongbae Road campaign" (a local road widening project used by cookers). Stevens now campaign manager for Stuart Bonds (referred to as "boss"). Possible links to broader far-right organising. Joel Jammal's Gifts: Rolled-up maps for Cessnock's 6 cooker councillors showing ALP vs. Voice 'No' vote intersections. Maps available for purchase from Jammal. Jammal's CPAC Trip: Won the trip via the "Shark Bites Pitching Contest" at CPAC Australia (Sky paywall). Winners expected to produce content upon return. Included a communication seminar with Steve Bannon. Stuart Bonds' Candidacy (Hunter): Odds discussed ($10 on Sportsbet). Labor's Dan Repacholi favoured ($1.15). Bonds' history: 21% primary in 2019, left One Nation, rejoined. Consistent far-right vote in the region. Bonds' desire to "start a conversation about coal mining" (already ongoing). Discussion on Labor's telehealth plan and cooker opposition. (00:24:07) Trumpism & Dutton's Campaign Discussion on the "blueprint for Trump 28". Chris LaCivita (Trump advisor) reportedly helped Peter Dutton's campaign. Joel questions the effectiveness given global trends. Mainstream media's difficulty rallying behind Dutton. (00:25:52) Cooker Report Part 2: Gosford & MyPlace Dave attended the Lisa Bellamy independent campaign launch in Gosford. Follow-on from "Coasties Who Care" (MyPlace environmentalist council ticket). Shadowy Figure: Kate Mason (anti-renewable circuit, IPA/Advance events). Launched Bellamy's campaign. Campaign barely mentions climate change, focuses on opposing Aboriginal Land Council developments. Key Figures on Stage: Jake Cassar (musician, prepper). Lisa Bellamy (MyPlace coordinator, seen at Convoy with Kate Mason). Vicki Burke (MyPlace food/water security organiser, believes in aliens/other planets). Group suggests increased One Nation vote would benefit them. Bellamy received ~3000 votes previously. Kate Mason's Agenda: Reshaping the environment movement to focus on conspiracies (15-min cities, anti-meat). Shapeshifted from anti-vax (IMOP) -> Voice 'No' -> Anti-artificial food/Bellamy campaign. Significant Telegram following despite "gobbledygook" posts. Rally vs. Darkinjung Land Council/Woolworths Development: Focus remains on Land Council projects. Racist undertones ("love the land as much as we do"). Links to Garingai (now potentially split/rebranded). NRL Welcome to Country discussed. Jake Cassar Deep Dive: Constant self-promotion, minimal concrete environmental vision beyond opposing the Land Council. Attacks Labor/Greens. Right-wing presence at events. Ballarat missing person search (found dog with SES). Yowie encounter at Woy Woy tip. Lack of accountability in Facebook environmental groups (anti-immigration/Aboriginal rhetoric). (00:40:33) Monica Smit's Private Prosecution of Dan Andrews Monica plans a private criminal prosecution against Dan Andrews (and Jacinta Allan). Website Quote: "The wait is over righteous justice begins now" - Monica Smit. Topher Field involved as cheerleader/promoter. Basis: "New evidence" (Document 34 FOI email) allegedly showing curfew decision made before consulting CHO Brett Sutton. Implication: tyranny, not health advice. Joel suggests it was likely capitulation to police enforcement ease. Fundraising: Claimed $124,605 raised (via manually updated widget). Monica paid herself $1000/week stipend already. Monica's Justification ("Why me?"): Stood toe-to-toe and won, relentless energy, prison time (refused bail), won appeal, resisted database handover, won unlawful arrest case (appealing costs decision), claims past refund integrity, lives simply, no distractions (children/friends). Bender (@SpambotX) Twitter Thread: Brutal takedown of Monica as a "despicable con woman". Highlights Consumer Affairs conviction ($66k pocketed from unregistered fundraiser). Accuses Topher Field of seeking a cut. Details legal failures, self-orchestrated "martyrdom", $250k legal bill after rejecting settlement. Criticises "journalism" and book ("Cell 22"). Predicts prosecution failure and abandonment once donations dry up. Bender's Legal Analysis (Round 2): Private prosecution (Crimes Act s 321) needs prima facie case, not conspiracy. Document 34 likely inadmissible hearsay. Misconduct charge needs proof of knowing, malicious law-breaking (R v Quach). Lockdowns upheld (Loielo v Giles), backed by Public Health Act & CHO advice. DPP can shut down frivolous cases (Public Prosecutions Act s 22). Previous treason case tossed out. Criticises fundraising transparency (Fundraising Act 1998), $52k/year salary. Highlights past legal issues (incitement charges dropped, health order conviction, Judge Tran's comments). Past Precedent: 2021 private prosecution for treason (Anthony Herman) recalled - chaotic online hearing. Monica's Timeline & Updates: Initial plan: Assemble legal team by April 24, first meeting April 30. Reality (May 1): No team announced. Video claims it will take "a few weeks" to pick lawyers. Met with a lawyer ($500/hr, 2 hours booked). Posted picture near a waterfall instead of legal updates ("reset and reload"). Now targeting Jacinta Allan as well. Promises refund of remaining balance if no prospect of success. Discussion on cooker lawyers (Matouk, Buckley). Monica's motivation seen as attention/clout chasing. (01:17:54) Return to The Cali (Caledonian Hotel, Singleton) Dave attended Pauline Hanson & Stuart Bonds event ($20 lunch that never happened). Low turnout (~45 people in beer garden). Regulars, pensioners, Chris Sky filming, James Ashby present. Stuart Bonds Guardian article discussed (misogyny, anti-vax, "Little Hitlers"). Worn as badge of honour. Homeschooling attempt due to "woke trans agenda". Red Ensign described as "real flag". Unregistered campaign trailer incident. Pauline Hanson: Speech built to "greatest hits" (Aboriginal industry). Mumbles less the longer she speaks. Cali Update: Corruption Whistleblower book sold at bar (credit card accepted). Eureka beer on tap (FJB beer rebranded/gone?). Frenchies brewery connection? Pub seems to be returning to normal operations, but Red Ensign still flies. Food looks good, beer selection poor (Lion Nathan). No coal miners attended the event despite Bonds' background. (01:36:30) Candidates Forum: Patterson (Port Stephens) Dave attended forum; ABC filming due to anti-wind turbine mob presence. Low turnout of protesters (~5 loud individuals). Meryl Swanson (Labor incumbent) well-prepared. Marginal seat: Libs (Lawrence Ancliffe), aligned Independent, One Nation, Trumpet, Family First running against Swanson. History of intimidation (boat incident during Mayoral campaign). Betting odds discussed (Labor $1.66, Coalition $2.37). YouGov poll (Labor 51.8%). Irony: Libs proposed nuclear plant at Port Stephens in 2007. Bizarre Moments: Trumpet candidate Peter Arena: Wind turbines interfere with missile detection; mentioned fighting audience member over wife littering. (01:42:37) Billy Bay vs GAP Feud Update Dr. William Bay told people not to vote for GAP (Great Australian Party) despite running for them. Rod Culleton's response. Billy Bay's letter to Culleton: Mock SovCit style ("Office of Vexatious Litigants and Spiritual Audits"), demands apology, foot kissing, $8 trillion. Full of threats (librarian grievance, livestream in lab coat, seizing karma balance). Written on GAP letterhead. Feud background (payment disputes) covered previously by Tinfoil Tales. (01:46:51) Amelia Hamer (Liberal, Kooyong) vs The People Recap: Fake renter scandal (owns 2 properties + trust fund beneficiary). A-Frame sign spamming controversy vs Monique Ryan (Teal MP). Council imposed one-sign limit due to safety/obstruction complaints. Liberals took council to Supreme Court over implied freedom of political communication. Court upheld freedom but allowed council safety enforcement (opaque outcome). Likely outcome: confrontations over sign placement. James Patterson claiming victory. Joel predicts local backlash. (01:51:08) Election Odds & Predictions Sportsbet: Labor $1.05, Coalition $9.50. YouGov: Labor 53 / Coalition 47 (2PP). Projecting 84 seats for Labor (75 needed for majority). Dickson (Dutton's seat): YouGov 50.2% LNP / 49.8% ALP. Sportsbet has Dutton favourite ($1.28 vs $3.35). Joel laments betting ban but expresses optimism for Labor win, potential Dutton loss. (01:53:29) Wrap Up & Outro Joel thanks Dave for his "invaluable" and "brave" cooker reporting. Standard Patreon plugs etc. skipped. Sign off & enjoy the election.