The Future of GovCon
On this episode of The Future of GovCon, Jake Frazer sits down with Tim Garnett, Partner and Space, Defense and Government Practice Lead at Oliver Wyman, formerly co-founder and Managing Partner of Avacent. Tim has spent 25 years at the intersection of government, defense, and capital markets. He has advised on some of the most consequential M&A transactions in the GovCon space and has a front row seat to the capital revolution reshaping the defense industrial base right now. In this conversation he covers the shift from waiting for the RFP to bringing solutions, the bifurcation of the market between exquisite and commercial, the rise of private equity and venture capital in defense, what the European defense build-up means for industry, and what GovCon looks like in 2029 when the current transformation is in full swing. 🔔 Subscribe and leave us a rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify — it helps more people in the GovCon community find the show. ⏱️ TIMESTAMPS 00:00 – Hook: A generational leadership change moment 01:13 – Welcome and introduction 01:34 – Tim's background and how he and Jake met 15 years ago 02:15 – What makes Oliver Wyman different: finger on the pulse of the budget and capital markets 03:10 – William and Mary, political science and economics 03:30 – Early career in Russia: the Wild West of the late 90s 05:17 – Friends who made their fortunes in Russia and what happened after Ukraine 05:36 – How Tim got into government contracting: finding DFI 06:45 – Learning the language of GovCon from day one as an analyst 07:50 – Curiosity is king in consulting: your most valuable day is your first 08:20 – The original tech boom and the early intersection of technology and defense 09:11 – Founding Avacent in 2007: the origin story 10:23 – Six partners, one vision: customer first, great culture 11:31 – The origin of the name Avacent: Steve Irwin and the word engine 12:36 – Growing Avacent from 36 to 140 people across DC, London, Paris, Tokyo 13:46 – Building an enterprise not a cult of personality 14:28 – Proprietary data and budget forecasting as a core differentiator 15:11 – What Tim looks for when hiring: hard work, curiosity, smart work 17:19 – Joining Oliver Wyman in November 2022: why the time was right 18:32 – Cultural fit and 15 years of relationship building with Roger Layman 19:08 – What Oliver Wyman added that Avacent never had: digital, supply chain, scale 20:40 – What Tim does now: Space, Defense and Government practice globally 21:54 – Working directly for OSD on industrial base transformation 24:02 – The PSC annual conference: the difference between 2025 and 2026 24:50 – How to get lined up for the $1.5 trillion budget 25:22 – The biggest challenge: timing. How long can you get ready without running? 26:06 – The DOGE philosophy: good in principle, complex in execution 27:58 – Why policy change takes ten years and what the parallel acquisition community means 28:45 – Where the priorities are heading: defense and Intel big increases 29:23 – How to tell your story in a way that gets the customer excited 30:28 – Changing your face to market: the open door administration 31:12 – Bring the solution. Don't ask what they need. 32:13 – The old school BD model is over: companies winning are leaning forward with 80% solutions 33:24 – Brett Lambert and the dinosaurs knitting sweaters 34:23 – Legacy vs new entrants: moving from competition to partnership 35:20 – Capital as the new lever: the triangle has become a square 36:02 – Early 2000s: taking DARPA technology commercial 36:28 – Palantir broke the mold. Anduril followed. 37:32 – The UAS consolidation that is coming: category winners and fallout 38:23 – Private equity: from the global financial crisis to today 40:23 – Where PE interest has shifted: services to manufacturing, software and tech 40:44 – Francisco Partners, Thoma Bravo, Bain Capital coming into defense 41:11 – The government as a source of creative capital: debt, equity, and customer all at once 42:20 – European defense: 11 to 12% growth forecast over 5 to 7 years 43:12 – Rebuilding the European industrial base: ESG reversal and 18 to 20 new PE funds 44:07 – The two track race: Ukraine near-term vs. long-term industrial rebuild 45:12 – Freedom's Forge 2.0: shuttered automotive factories being redesigned for defense 46:23 – The services gap in Europe: a huge and underappreciated opportunity 47:32 – What does GovCon look like in 2029? 48:17 – Strain on the acquisition force: spending fast with fewer people 49:04 – 2027 to 2028 getting things in order. 2029 the real bifurcation begins. 50:53 – The AI strategy question: everyone wants one but few know what it means 52:37 – One word on the future: "Dynamic" 53:14 – Generational leadership change: who steps up and redefines the great brands?
41 episodios
Comentarios
0Sé la primera persona en comentar
¡Regístrate ahora y únete a la comunidad de The Future of GovCon!